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飙升的回购,下垂回归

股票回购方案的表现继续滑倒,但公司仍然无法问:他们是否为投资者产生了良好的回报?

A cash infusion last summer lifted the shares of Schaumburg, Illinois–based Motorola Solutions when private equity firm银湖在电信公司投资10亿美元以换取高级可换股票据。新闻发布会宣传了该公司的新时代,迎合了对公共安全通信的需求不断增长,其特点Carl Icahn.将其施加到2010年曾经占据过占主导地位手机业务的摩托罗拉流动性。

但投资比银湖股份大11倍,在摩托罗拉解决方案方面少得多。在2011年7月开始的一系列董事会授权下,回购已经修剪了一半的股价。回购计划的标签包括2015年前九个月的30亿美元,部分抵消潜在稀释,如果银湖将债务转换为公平。

摩托罗拉解决方案宣布其回购计划取得成功。发言人表示,该公司平均花费了56.91美元的股票,以便在70年代的低价下贸易。但在摩托罗拉解决方案中,就像许多公司一样,股票回购的问责制在没有严格的基准时遭受。

回购
记分卡标准普尔500指数为股票回购商最糟糕的公司行业比较

Companies that regularly repurchase their shares seldom ask, much less answer, a pivotal question applied to other significant investments of shareholder capital: Do buybacks generate an optimal return on investment for investors that hold on to their stock? Never mind that share repurchase programs are now mainstream enough that an交易交易基金,PowerShares回购成就者,跟踪这些公司的表现。回购计划的投资回购往往仍然难以实现。

武装投资者与工具进行对等评估,since 2012 we have been providing Corporate Buyback Scorecards,哪种措施和排名股票回购投资回报。在剥离平均价格趋势的回购时机时,计算股票表现的计算权衡股票表现依据。开发和计算亚博赞助欧冠by New York–based Fortuna Advisors using data from S&P Capital IQ, the current Corporate Buyback Scorecard, for the third quarter of 2015, examines 299 Standard & Poor’s 500 index companies where buybacks retired more than 4 percent of market capital or exceeded $1 billion over eight quarters through September 2015.

回购业绩已经下降以来2013年第四季度,当我们呼叫回购投资回购时,我们呼叫ROI近30%。在第三季度,市场波动罚款回购投资回报率。记分卡记录了绩效衡量标准的最陡峭的一季度下降,从上一季度的14.9%达到5.2%。

Overall buyback rankings paint a broad picture of performance, but we can also drill down into company quintiles and industry sectors. It is axiomatic that buybacks improve earnings per share by reducing share count, all else being equal. But breaking down the most recent data by quintile shows that buybacks that retired the smallest percentages of market capital during the quarter packed the most punch in terms of median improvements in EPS.

相反,大equival回购没有保证ent improvements in median EPS. Instead of signaling confidence, some may be viewed as warnings. Top-quintile buybacks by size retired 21.3 percent of initial market capitalization over eight quarters and showed an 11.0 percent decline in EPS over that period. In contrast, companies in the bottom quintile by size, retiring 4.3 percent, saw a 17.4 percent gain (see chart).

“Many investors are wowed by buybacks, especially in these times of low interest rates, because of the automatic increase in earnings per share,” says Fortuna CEO Greg Milano. However, Fortuna found a reduction in price-to-earnings multiples, on average, among the companies that conducted buybacks. “EPS growth [from buybacks] was worth about half as much as EPS growth from operations,” he says.

越来越多的回购活动邀请审查。目前的企业回购记分卡包括股票回购的结果,返回两年,总计约1.1万亿美元。以美元,2015年第三季度从那时起超过了每季度March 2013,除了2014年第一季度.

Without the means to fine-tune verdicts, institutional investors tend to employ anecdotal experience and rules of thumb to assess the merits of buybacks. “Companies that have less solid foundations may use buybacks as a way to support the stock or make announcements that they think the stock is undervalued,” says Claritas Capital co-founder John Chadwick: “Those are fundamentals we would not want to be part of, long-term.”

缺陷经常吸引更多的关注而不是美德。“糟糕的回购是一家公司以响应外部活动家的压力而增加债务和杠杆作出回购股份,”纪元投资合作伙伴的联合珠三角珠三角珠三角珍珠表示。

Pearl单打Midland,基于密歇根州的化学公司Dow Chemical Co.,最近宣布了一位Megamerger与威尔明顿,特拉华州的杜邦的赞美。他引用了陶氏定期增加自1912年以来的股息,以令人满意的水平设定杠杆,并在资本回报和自由现金流程方面达到购回计划的目标。“这检查了我们所有最重要的盒子,”珍珠说。

可以道理改善回购的退货吗?在当前记分卡中排名第195号,陶氏签订了负荷投资回购投资回报率的负数2.0%,将材料行业集团的中位数落后于150个基点。Dow落后的顶级回购投资回购投资回购投资回购投资回购投资回购空气密封空气,位于北卡罗来纳州夏洛特,占46个百分点。与Dow的不同,在密封的空中执行回购投资回购投资回购总股东返回。

T. Rowe Price Asset Manager Sudhir Nanda赞扬缓慢和稳定的回购,引用了一个经理的例子,他们在十年内退休了40%的公司股票。“他们可能并不总是以最低价格买到的,”纳达说,但截至年度股份的股票出水,对EPS的有利影响:“对我来说,这一管理是对部署资本的方式非常谨慎。”

观察员普遍认为,强大的自由现金流,没有投资替代品和一致的战略目标可以证明回购。在将回购与其他投资进行比较时,公司应该谨慎:如果投资新产品的十亿美元,则公司损失损失的唯一方法是在其他地方重新部署剩余资产。如果在某些终端活动前购买价格上涨以上购买价格上涨,请表示破产或合并,回购似乎仍然可以兑换自己,尽管临时表现不佳。此外,剩余股东收购了较大的收益索赔 - 以及更具杠杆公司的额外风险。

然而,有迹象表明,现金或未使用的债务能力不存在比购买股票的更好的替代方案,而且还可以轻松地将一些公司从钩子上脱离。而不是承担产生长期增长的责任,管理人员加速以满足短期目标,有时通过自己的短期赔偿考虑因素而激励。

“说威利 - 尼尔所有超额资本应以回购形式退回股东正在过度简化现金出现的备选方案,”布莱恩愤怒, a managing director and portfolio manager at New York–based ClearBridge Investments, an asset management arm of Baltimore asset manager Legg Mason that emphasizes long-term growth in its portfolios. “It irks me no end when a management team says its top priority is to use buybacks to offset dilution,” he adds. “Have they ever thought whether issuing those options was the right thing to do?”

无论他们的动机是什么,管理人员几乎总是在宣布回购时表达热情。然而,知情股东持怀疑态度。“当您不想坐在现金时,这是最不糟糕的替代方案,”田纳西州的金钱经理Avondale Partners纳什维尔高级分析师Lawrence Pfeffer说。

利用最不糟糕的步骤的公司在最新的记分卡上混合结果,涵盖了一个以市场波动和流失在市场的时期,而且较少的增长方式。卫生保健设备和服务最好:季度的中位回购ROI是26.1%。超过540亿美元的回购在康涅狄格州的保险公司Cigna Corp.Paro Alto,Palo Alto,加利福尼亚州,加利福尼亚 -基于医疗器械公司。

Cigna and two other health care companies hit the top ten in overall buyback ROI rankings. Cigna’s buyback program stresses flexibility. In its latest 10-Q, Cigna disclosed a share repurchase program that it can suspend at any time, “generally without public announcement,” notes the company. At times when Cigna cannot trade shares, executives may avail themselves of 10b5-1 trading programs, which provide a safe harbor from insider trading violations.

Beleaguered after a steepdrop in oil prices,能源公司毫不奇怪,占据回购投资回购的部门地下室。该行业花费超过650亿美元购买回股,并在回购投资回购中录得负13%。石油和天然气的价格下降折叠回报,包括在2015年初期望回购股票中的不稳定举措。

油补丁是用灾害的补充,一个例外:炼油厂。总部位于圣安东尼奥的炼油机Tesoro公司不仅领导其部门,它在回购投资回购投资回购投资回购中的第2号。令人羡慕的53.8%的回购投资回购投资回购股票价格上涨,并在回购中缓解了宽松。

达达登餐厅,奥兰多,佛罗里达州的休闲用餐店所有者,在买回ROI中排名为55.8%。它的品牌餐厅收集,包括橄榄园,长角牛排馆和资本格栅,吸引了食客和投资者,回购计划骑行股价上涨。

Although buyback ROI at Motorola Solutions lagged 185 companies on the full list and six in its own sector, Technology Hardware and Equipment, two key measures warrant special attention. Its buybacks over eight quarters through September 2015 reduced shares outstanding and market capitalization by larger percentages than at all other companies in the ranking. Buybacks trimmed Motorola Solutions’ share count by 31.8 percent and its market capital by 48.9 percent. The medians for the sector ran 5 percent and 8 percent, respectively.

缩小摩托罗拉解决方案的数量股票借给跌落的一些支持,因为收入下降了45.1%,涨幅为63%。达到0.5%,公司的回购投资回购投资回购速度缩短了其行业中位数12个百分点。飙升的表现苹果, in Cupertino, California, pushed the computer maker’s buyback ROI to 26.5 percent, making it the sector leader. Leaving aside Apple, where the magnitude of its buyback program distorts comparisons, five other companies beat Motorola Solutions’ buyback ROI: San Jose, California–based Cisco Systems, Sunnyvale, California’s Juniper Networks and Seattle’s F5 Networks all surpassed Motorola Solutions by more than 11 percentage points. Amphenol Corp., headquartered in Wallingford, Connecticut, and Switzerland-based TE Connectivity posted margins of 9.4 and 2.2 percentage points, respectively.

如果摩托罗拉解决方案匹配思科的13.8%的回购投资回报率,该公司将增加4.47亿美元的股东价值,注意Joseph Theriault研究的副总裁Notes Fortuna副总裁。

在第三季度盈利会议期间,有关摩托罗拉国家摩托罗拉解决方案对其回购战略的详细信息,摩托罗拉解决方案响应了一般性。首席执行官Greg Brown证实,2015年的35亿美元目标不变,已经在2015年8月的20亿美元修改的荷兰拍卖投标招标中取得了不变。“我们显然在投标优惠上执行并占据了这一大块股票季度,“布朗说。他补充说,摩托罗拉录取其经营现金流量的50%,供回购或并购,30%的股息,增加了20%的资本支出。

为了估算井或不当的回购的后果,回购效果捕获了回购投资回报率和基础总股东返回之间的差异,该公司回购记分卡调用了回购策略。第三季度所有排名公司的中位回购效力进一步进入红色,负口下降5.7%,自2013年初击中其近10%顶部以来稳步下降。

旅行良好的类比照亮了回复姿势的困境。在紧密举行的公司中说十个合作伙伴中的两个决定退休。“你只是使用去年的现金流量来买出合作伙伴。现在你拥有公司的第八,而不是十分之一,“纪念伙伴的珍珠说。

这是一种营养乐观的方式。正如Fortuna的Milano所说,如果剩余的合作伙伴可以证明他们的乐观主义,他们将在一家公共公司,股票回购中查看买断 - 作为一个优秀的交易。但是,对业务的严峻观点可能会在不同的光线下投入支出。如果业务绊倒,以高峰价格购买合作伙伴看起来不会非常聪明。Milano说,经理和投资者应该以同样的方式查看回购。

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