巴西的问题进一步的意思Pressure on the Real

The Brazilian real had an awful year in 2015, plunging 33 percent against the dollar, and analysts don’t expect a much better performance this year. Weak commodity prices have helped push the economy into a deep recession, inflation and interest rates have climbed into double digits, the government is struggling to contain a yawning budget deficit, and a恶化腐败丑闻瘫痪了Dirma Rousseff总统的行政管理.

“基础知识是可怕的，让它变得轻微，”纽约布朗兄弟哈里曼·诺克森公司的新兴市场战略胜利。在1月份，1月份的实际下降至2月1日以3.9636，自年年初以来一点变化，但瘦的认为它将逐年降至4.55。

Analysts estimate that the Brazilian economy shrank by 3.5 percent last year and will contract another 2.5 percent this year. “It’s hard to have strong negative growth for two years in a row, given population growth and technological advances, but it looks like Brazil is going to do it,” Thin says.

Theplunge in commodity pricesand weak demand from China are hurting Brazil. Commodities, including iron ore, soybeans, beef and oil, account for about 50 percent of the country’s exports. The Bloomberg Commodity index has plummeted to a 25-year low.

Banco Central do Brasil has been hiking interest rates sharply in a bid to get inflation under control, putting further downward pressure on the economy. The central bank raised its benchmark Selic rate by 250 basis points last year, to 14.25 percent, but with inflation jumping to 10.7 percent last year from 6.4 percent in 2014, analysts see little relief on the rates front. “The central bank is saying that rates are high enough to curb inflation, but clearly they aren’t,” Thin says. “They have to hike rates. Come on, their credibility is going out the window.”

巴西的预算赤字在11月份以9.3％的国内产品持续量率为11月，惠誉评级将其主权债务评级降至12月份，加入标准普尔德的垃圾评级。投资级评级的损失将袭击巴西公司，拥有大约250亿美元的未偿还外币债务。“未来六个月的巴西最大的问题正在融合债务，”在华盛顿的新兴市场研究公司Kleiman International的高级合作伙伴和联合创始人Gary Kleiman说。“最好的情况是，问题仅限于一些公司，但它可能是跨委员会的危机。”

These problems would be difficult enough for a well-functioning government to tackle. Unfortunately, the two-year-old investigation into allegations of widespread kickbacks from state-owned Petróleo Brasileiro, which Rousseff chaired for years before becoming president, to leading politicians has crippled the government and brought calls for Rousseff’s impeachment. The scandal deepened in November with the arrests of Delcídio do Amaral, the Workers’ Party leader in the Senate, and André Esteves, the founder of investment bank BTG Pactual. The Brazilian Congress is seeking to launch impeachment proceedings against the president on charges that her government used accounting tricks to hide the true size of the budget deficit.

Confidence in the government’s economic policy took a fresh blow in December when Joaquim Levy, whom Rousseff had appointed as Finance minister a year earlier to tackle the deficit, resigned because of opposition to his austerity measures from within Rousseff’s ruling Workers’ Party. His replacement, Nelson Barbosa, is a close Rousseff aide who is regarded as more fiscally liberal.

说，巴西需求是一种新的增长模式David Beker, chief Brazil economist and fixed-income strategist for Bank of America Merrill Lynch在圣保罗。“消费部门已经耗尽，”他说。“消费者是杠杆化的，银行不是贷款，失业率正在上升。”从8月至10月期间的失业率总计9％。Beker说，通过提高出口并使外国投资更便宜，汇率下跌可以帮助。因此，需要真实才能疲弱。

棕色兄弟的瘦身认为卢梭不太可能辞职或被弹劾。“反对派不想要力量，因为事情仍然变得更糟，”他说。“他们的态度是，让Dirma在风中扭曲了未来几年，然后让她的党因世代而脱离。”仍然，政治莫拉斯将对货币进行进一步向下压力，他和其他人说。

Kleiman says Brazil’s problems run deep. The 1988 constitution guaranteed fractious politics by creating a multiparty system, and it mandates a large proportion of public spending, making it difficult to bring the deficit under control. “It needs a reform of its entire political and economic framework,” he says. “When you have embedded costs and taxes, there’s not much you can do about it, except at the margins.”

Kleiman thinks the picture is ugly enough to push the real down another 20 percent against the dollar this year, to 5.15 reais to the greenback.

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