Aiming to Keep the Economy in High Gear

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由Matthew Thomas /菲律宾在过去几年中被出现为亚洲最佳经济体之一。据菲律宾统计局统计局，2015年，该国国内生产总值增长了5.8％。国际货币基金组织的经济学家认为，今年增长率将达到6％和2017年的6.2％。通货膨胀率低，失业率下降，建设投资速度突破。

The country clearly stands out from its neighbors. While central banks in Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia have all eased monetary conditions over the last 12 months, the talk in the Philippines has instead turned to when the Philippine central bank will hike rates. (But many economists think that will not happen until 2017.)

菲律宾并不总是在如此美丽的位置。之后阿基诺三世于2010年5月当选为总统时，经济遭受掉落增长的五个连胜季度，由于新政府与臃肿的预算和福岛核事故后日本出口需求下降挣扎。但随着全球环境有所改善，政府的改革努力刺激了投资大幅跃迁，菲律宾已经转了一角。

该国部分受益于过去伤害它的同一因素：它没有直接依赖中国的增长。相反，日本长期以来一直是其主要贸易伙伴。去年上半年菲律宾出口价值617亿美元，而美国对美国的44.3亿美元出口和30.7亿美元。但对菲律宾的成长故事来说更重要的是国内需求的影响，特别是投资激增。根据世界银行数据，菲律宾出口到GDP比率仅为28.7％，截至2014年底。这不到泰国，马来西亚和越南的比例。

穆迪投资者服务经济学家Christian de Guzman说：“菲律宾在2015年仍然经历了与其他人的外部压力相同，菲律宾加速了增长。”“国内需求为其中一些外部逆风提供了一个很好的偏移量。你不能对其他东南亚经济体说同样的事情。“

“政府花钱的方式更加连贯，更高效。现在是政府考虑投资更多基础设施的时候，而不是主要依赖私营部门参与。“
Jesse Ang, IFC principal investment officer, Philippines

But although the Philippine economy has made impressive strides over the last few years, there are potential roadblocks ahead. Some of those problems are structural, and will take many years to address. But at least one of the question marks hanging over the Philippines should be resolved in just a few months, when the country’s electorate goes to the polling booths.

Spot the difference
菲律宾的投资者的最大不确定性来源是即将举行的总统大选，该选举将于5月9日举行。阿基诺总统，他已经提出了基础设施的发展和财政纪律，是他政策焦点的主要部分，将走下去为所有菲律宾总统的六年合并为六年。究竟谁将取代他太关心的是我此刻预测的Pollsters。前总统候选人费尔南多Poe Jr的采用的女儿参议员Grace Poe在最近的脉冲腹民意调查中获得了26％的受访者，而目前副总裁Jejomar Binay的24％，达沃市市长罗德里戈·荷兰维特室内秘书MAR ROXAS为20％。

It should perhaps not come as a great surprise that the election is so close. Because although there are surely policy differences between these candidates in some areas, most market participants admit that it is hard to figure out exactly what those differences are.

“The focus of the election has been on personalities so far,” says de Guzman. “These candidates aren’t running on a policy platform. No-one really knows what the differences between them will be.”

还有关于谁的疑问。关于谁将在未来管理该国货币政策的问题。菲律宾中央银行由Amando Tetangco在过去的九年内经营。他是第一个有助于中央银行的两项负责条款的人。当新总统在马拉卡兰宫居住时，谁将待这项工作。

“尽管菲律宾在2015年，仍然存在仍然存在与其他人相同的外部压力，菲律宾在2015年加速增长。”
Christian de Guzman, Moody’s Investors Service

But the looming election is most crucial for economists because it will help them figure out just how much growth to expect from the Philippines over the coming years. After all, most analysts and economists agree that the crucial question is how much the next President continues the infrastructure focus of Aquino – and how much they manage to improve on it.

The infrastructure focus
President Aquino has made public-private partnerships a focal point of his policy over the last six years. The government has approved 12 PPP deals already and has plans to approve around 10 more before Aquino leaves office. But some market participants think the government could do much more, including taking a more direct role in infrastructure development.

“Government finances are in much better shape now,” says Jesse Ang, principal investment officer at IFC in the Philippines. “The way government spends money is much more coherent and much more efficient. It is time for the government to think about investing more in infrastructure, rather than relying primarily on private sector involvement.”

这肯定有助于加快项目的步伐，但大多数经济学家都认为仍然可以改善私营部门参与基础设施部门。这可以通过允许更多的外国公司掌握新项目。它也意味着确保新政府目前与菲律宾的主要基础设施公司具有良好的关系。

“We foresee a better relationship with the next administration, given the lack of infrastructure development in the country,” says Albert Pulido, vice president of investor relations at Metro Pacific Investments Corp. “If they want to develop the infrastructure network, they’re going to have honor existing contracts, and be more proactive about putting out projects.”

不是什么秘密,基础设施建设essential to the continued growth of the Philippine economy. In interviews, bankers and economists complain of being stuck for too long in Manila traffic. Gridlock has become a major talking point in the country. The good news is that these problems are so obvious that some economists think they simply cannot be ignored by the next administration.

“The economy is bumping up against capacity constraints. That is going to push whoever takes power to do what it takes to keep up investment growth.”
Anthony Nafte，Clsa

Clsa高级经济学家安东尼Nafte警告投资者对菲律宾经济的增长有威胁。油价的崩溃减缓了中东的汇款增长。银行正在减缓贷款增长。在长期内，自动化将菲律宾的地位威胁为业务流程外包枢纽。但尽管如此，他仍然比他的一些同龄人更多地对经济的看涨前景。与国际货币基金组织预测为6％，北美州北美州北美州北美州北美州GDP​​增长率为6.8％。

“There is an assumption in my forecast that the investment upswing will be sustained and carried forward by whoever the next President is,” says Nafte. “That is a big assumption, but the basis for that is that there is no real alternative. The economy is bumping up against capacity constraints. That is going to push whoever takes power to do what it takes to keep up investment growth.”