在January 2015 during an event at Harvard Business School, Wu Xiaohui, CEO of Anbang Insurance Group, explained his firm’s expansion plans with an unusual analogy: “Why can a substance like water cover 70 percent of the surface of the earth and exist in perpetuity?” he asked. “A company is a living organization. Could it exist as water does?” The answer to the second question, Wu hopes, is yes. He was in Cambridge, Massachusetts, alongside business partner, friend and HBS alum斯蒂芬施瓦茨曼他是另类投资巨头黑石集团（Blackstone Group）的董事长兼首席执行官，将为安邦日益壮大的帝国招聘新员工。吴的业务于2004年作为一家小型汽车保险公司在北京开始运营，在过去十年中，业务规模不断扩大，已成为一家规模达1230亿美元的控股公司，资产遍布四大洲。但在安邦2014年10月从黑石控股的希尔顿酒店及度假村（Hilton Hotels&Resorts）手中收购标志性的华尔道夫阿斯托里亚酒店（Waldorf Astoria）并向纽约市房地产市场投入近20亿美元之前，大多数美国房地产投资者从未听说过安邦。如今，许多人认为安邦预示着竞争环境将更加严峻，机遇将不断缩小。
吴佛多的几个月，吴已经接受了水的匆忙和传播品质 - 安邦内部文化的核心价值，他说 - 并跃入了另外两个主要房地产交易。亚慱体育app怎么下载3月份，中国保险公司同意购买65亿美元的豪华酒店及其16家豪华酒店。在大约一会儿，达壁屋和度假村世界各地宣布，安邦是一个神秘的财团的领导者，为其投资组合投标了128亿美元的现金，试图挤压酒店的Hospitality International Out交易。万豪最终在喜达屋的战斗中盛行，但竞标，其中包括3亿美元的现金，而不是原始优惠。结果有一些美国房地产投资者紧张，因为安邦并不孤单。最近的现金冲洗中国投资者的匆忙正在影响全国各地交易的谈判的高等教育助理。
“They may be pushing up prices more aggressively than fundamentals dictate in some cases,” says Kenneth McCarthy, New York–based chief economist at global commercial real estate services firm Cushman & Wakefield. “If you don’t bid aggressively, you don’t get the asset.”
美国的许多最新奖杯物业交易涉及中国买家或合作伙伴。2013年，上海投资公司福磺国际买了一个追逐曼哈顿广场;中国最大的开发商之一苏哈中国在曼哈顿的通用汽车大厦购买了超过7亿美元的股份;国有的格陵兰控股集团有限公司在洛杉矶市中心的住宅和娱乐项目中投入了10亿美元。去年中国的阳光保险集团公司为纽约百家乐酒店为每间客房纪录了200万美元，中国银行在7辆布莱恩特公园买了一座附近的办公大楼，以6亿美元。
关于中国投资涌入的最大响亮的声音警告美国房地产和经济的其他部分可能属于共和党总统候选人唐纳德·特朗普。他认为中国公司在美国获得不公平的优势，并将其国家是货币操纵者。“美国完全开启了中国的市场，但中国没有往复，”特朗普转变了他的竞选网站。As with much of what the Republican front-runner says, this rhetoric has an air of hyperbole. But when it comes to concerns about U.S. investors competing with China in their home market, Trump may have a point. Chinese individuals’ push into the residential real estate market — spending $28.6 billion in the past year alone — has garnered headlines, but less attention has been paid to the influx of Chinese investment in U.S. commercial real estate. The wave of new money, which is coming from a variety of sources, including sovereign funds and private development groups, has provided opportunities for some domestic developers, but many U.S. investors have been forced out, especially in major metropolitan areas.
Some analysts have suggested that Anbang’s decision to walk away from the Starwood deal is a sign of a slowdown in Chinese money coming into the U.S. But if recent statistics are any guide, the momentum will be hard to reverse. Chinese companies spent $21.4 billion on commercial real estate outside their home country last year, 41 percent more than in 2014, according to Cushman & Wakefield. These investments were spread between development sites and existing properties around the world, with the U.S. receiving the biggest piece of the pie: $4.4 billion. China is now the second-largest foreign investor in the U.S., after Canada. Although its share of the market is still tiny — a total of $530 billion changed hands for commercial real estate in the U.S. in 2015 — China is drawing attention for purchasing iconic properties at eye-popping prices.
After buying the Waldorf, Anbang acquired the office tower at Manhattan’s 717 Fifth Avenue from Blackstone in 2015, paying $415 million. Sunshine Insurance made its own headlines last year when it bought the Baccarat from Greenwich, Connecticut–based Starwood Capital Group (which founded Starwood Hotels) for more than $230 million.
These deals have happened against a backdrop of slowing growth and increasing volatility in the Chinese economy. After averaging double-digit annual GDP growth from 2001 to 2011, China is expected to see only a 6 to 7 percent increase in 2016. This slowdown, and the government’s opaqueness when it comes to explaining what’s behind the economic numbers, have made some market observers nervous. Many predict further currency devaluation. Meanwhile, China’s equity markets are still feeling the effects of last August’s devaluation and the subsequent stock slump. This has led to capital flight by wealthy individuals, state-owned enterprises and large private companies alike. For its part, the Chinese government has encouraged some state-connected investors to put money in outside markets. Insurance companies are allowed to invest as much as 15 percent of total assets under management overseas. Currently, they invest only about 1.4 percent. According to Chicago-based property consulting firm JLL, if every Chinese insurer reached that 15 percent maximum, the total investment would be $240 billion.
Historically low U.S. interest rates have sent Chinese investors that previously flocked to Treasuries looking for better yields. The jump to real estate is not a big one. Investors of all stripes have long seen owning U.S. real estate as a great way to diversify and ensure long-term returns. In December, President Barack Obama signed a law that made it easier for certain foreign parties to invest in publicly traded real estate investment trusts — one indirect way that many Chinese investors are entering the market.
门户市场的财产和投资组合，如纽约，洛杉矶和旧金山，通常提供稳固的资本化率（基于财产价值和租赁净营业收入的预期返回率），特别是在办公室，多型和款待部门。在其中一个地点拥有属性也提供对高口径租户的访问，良好的基础设施以及经济衰退的一系列缓冲区。几年来，这需要一个像纽约一样的城市，从金融危机中反弹，但在不久的市场上可能需要多年的时间。
Ying Geneve DuBois, a partner at law firm Holland & Knight who represented Sunshine Insurance in the Baccarat deal, says pent-up demand and the desire of many Chinese investors to set down roots in gateway markets will likely outlast any potential slowdown caused by economic uncertainty at home or yield compression in the U.S. “I think this is only the beginning,” DuBois says.
对于购买美国家园的高净值个人来说，主要推动力是获得美国儿童的美国教育。大公司拥有不同的教育目标，因为他们准备面对越来越多的消费经济回家。“他们在这里投资并希望帮助某些品牌或企业扩展到这里，但它是一个全球性的世界，长期计划不是为了孤立在中国的发展和美国的发展，”Dubois说。“如果一个品牌和业务在美国做得很好，那么它只是自然，这是他们也可以带来中国的东西。”
有些专家担心当前市场在中国投资者的一部分呈现出混乱的动机，并提出了对他们购买的建筑和公司的意图的问题。其他人担心美国的灾难潜力。中国经济是否会摇摇欲坠。然而，对于美国投资者来说，主要问题是缩减机会池，因为现金丰富的中国买家推动价格更高。
The phenomenon is worrisome for another reason: The last time a major Asian nation focused this many resources on U.S. real estate, it didn’t end well. In the 1980s, Japanese investors snapped up trophy properties at sky-high prices only to run for the exits a few years later as their home economy slumped and the U.S. real estate market began to crash.
当然，经济学中没有完美的相关性。2016年中国的中国在20世纪80年代日本的许多方面都有不同，而美国房地产市场被认为有几年的左侧。但周期可以提供一个历史指导，一些专家指出了资产泡沫往往与信贷扩张相关的事实;中国目前正在经历快速扩张。
对外国人来说，在美国投资的一部分目的是为了对冲在其他地方产生的风险，把一只脚牢牢地插在所谓的避风港。但如果中国经济变坏，或者政治压力改变了美国的监管环境，抛售可能并非不可能。总部位于达拉斯的对冲基金公司海曼资本管理（Hayman Capital Management）创始人凯尔•巴斯（Kyle Bass）预测，未来两年内，中国将出现信贷危机。至于美国的情况，他说，“这让人奇怪地想起上世纪80年代。”
虽然中国投资者已经定期播放in U.S. real estate for years, the roots of the current influx can be traced to the 2008–’09 financial crisis. For those who had been looking for a way to get into the U.S. commercial property market, the crisis provided a prime opening to buy cheap and ride the returns up as prices recovered.
“The 2008 meltdown in the real estate market was a good opportunity for companies like Xinyuan to enter the States,” says George Huaiyu Liu, chief financial officer at Beijing-based developer and property manager Xinyuan Real Estate Co. Xinyuan was the first Chinese real estate company to list on the New York Stock Exchange, in 2007, just in time to take advantage of the coming collapse. “We saw the opportunities and seized them, and so far we are happy with what we have done,” Liu says. Xinyuan’s investments include a $270 million stake in a 216-unit luxury condominium building in Brooklyn.
在接下来的几年中,随着市场再保险covered in the gateway cities and China relaxed some rules on outbound investment, the wave accelerated. Nearly $6 billion of the $8.5 billion that Chinese investors put in U.S. real estate in the decade ended March 2014 was invested between January 2013 and March 2014, according to professional services firm Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu. In 2015 the strategy broke records, and though there was a slight retrenchment in January and February of this year as investors watched the currency and equity roller coaster back in China, the pause appears to have been temporary. “What looked like a pullback in February does not seem to be the case today,” says Darcy Stacom, vice chairman of investment properties at Manhattan-based brokerage CBRE Group. “I don’t think we’re off the peak.”
在2014, Xinyuan’s Brooklyn condo project, which has already sold more than half of its units and is expected to open later this year, received a $165 million construction loan from New York–based Fortress Investment Group. Today, Chinese firms commonly work with domestic players like Fortress on new developments. The arrangement can have important benefits for Chinese investors, which typically are new to some U.S. cultural customs related to deal making. At the same time, Chinese investors have helped keep many U.S. developers in the game despite postcrisis banking regulations that have made financing harder to come by.
在布鲁克林在纽约开发商森林城兰特纳州堡垒科学博士堡公司。自经济衰退以来一直在努力在前大都市运输当局铁路院子的网站上创造大型商业和住宅开发。在森林城市估计纳的资本市场执行副总裁Christopher Clayton表示，在危机之后，在危机后，危机后，危机的发展融资是困难的。凭借少数国内期权，该公司的景点降落在中国国有开发商格陵兰岛，最近投资了10亿美元的加州州立教师退休系统在洛杉矶购买的土地上的混合使用开发。2013年，森林城Ratner在格陵兰岛49亿美元的布鲁克林开发中签订了70％的股权。
Greenland wasn’t the only Chinese investor in Pacific Park. Forest City Ratner has also made liberal use of the EB-5 immigrant investor program to help fund the development. Administered by U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, the EB-5 program provides green cards to foreign investors in U.S. projects in qualified economic centers that create or preserve at least ten permanent jobs. “After the economy collapsed in 2008, it became very challenging to raise large amounts of capital,” Clayton says. “Ultimately, the EB-5 program provided a viable solution for us to borrow capital for Pacific Park’s infrastructure and predevelopment work.”
Now, several years into a slow but steady recovery, U.S. firms are still choosing Chinese development partners and Chinese buyers over domestic players for commercial real estate. In early April, New York real estate publication the真正的交易报道曼哈顿维里克街100号的一处豪华公寓开发项目有望成为纽约市第一个几乎完全由中国实体出资的开发项目。据报道，该项目的开发集团包括Aronov development、Bizzi&Partners development和Halpern Real Estate Ventures，已从中国银行获得3.2亿美元的建设融资，并从投资公司中国信达资产管理公司（China Cinda Asset Management）的美国子公司获得1.3亿美元的建设融资，同时也在筹集EB-5基金。
“卖的是其中的一些属性making it difficult for some domestic investors to rationalize,” says Roger Power, an audit partner and Chinese investment expert at KPMG. Institutional investors in particular are having a harder time finding deals that fit their parameters, in part because many have funds that require a seven-or ten-year return. “A Chinese life insurance company may have a much longer time horizon,” Power says.
许多市场的卖家已经开始更积极地利用这种情况。乔尔·沙克尔福德，洛杉矶Kaufman Dolowich&Voluck律师事务所的一位合伙人说，他看到诉讼和仲裁的上升，因为1000万至5000万美元范围内的房产的机会主义卖家在一个钱包很厚的中国投资者的第一个迹象出现时就打破了交易。
“寻找交易更难，更难以结束，更加困难，”Shackelford说。“现在，价格上涨，上涨，卖，卖家正在寻找任何原因，无论是为了打破交易。”
三年前ying geneve dubois正在运作on real estate and hospitality deals for Holland & Knight in the law firm’s Fort Lauderdale, Florida, office. DuBois was born in China, grew up in Hong Kong, studied in the U.S. and speaks both Mandarin and Cantonese — all of which has put her in a unique position to facilitate many Chinese investors’ forays into the U.S. real estate market. So when Sunshine Insurance chairman Zhang Weigong came to Florida looking for potential investment targets, it was natural that the two would meet. Zhang was hoping to deploy some of the millions that Sunshine had amassed in recent years and was being encouraged by China to spend outside its borders. He soon also met Barry Sternlicht, founder, chairman and CEO of private equity firm Starwood Capital. Starwood, which has more than $45 billion in assets under management and owns thousands of hotels around the world, was in the process of creating a new flagship hotel brand, Baccarat.
张“对[斯特纳里奇]对他的公司和他建立的新品牌留下了深刻的印象，所以他们决定做出一个非常大胆的举动，”Dubois说。
Sunshine agreed in early 2015 to purchase the world’s first Baccarat hotel, at 28 West 53rd Street. The $2 million price per room and the fact that Sunshine had scooped up the property before it even opened raised some eyebrows. DuBois admits the transaction was somewhat risky given the newness of the brand. But Sunshine didn’t just want a piece of a new high-end hotel on Manhattan’s West Side — it wanted a piece of Baccarat, of Starwood and of the U.S. hospitality ethos. “They were looking at it not just as buying a property but really buying the fact that the property has a brand, Baccarat Hotels, and it was a long-term partnership between the two companies,” says DuBois.
Sunshine is hoping to capitalize on the China tourism boom both within the country and abroad. In 2015, 2.5 million Chinese travelers visited the U.S., and nearly 3 million are expected this year. Only 6 percent of mainland Chinese citizens currently have a passport, but that number is expected to rise as the economy shifts. This is one reason so much of the Chinese capital chasing U.S. real estate deals in the past several years has focused on hotels.
中国投资者集中在海岸，但他们也在美国中心地区找到了机会。中国大连房地产开发商万达集团闻名于2012年，以26亿美元的价格为26亿美元而闻名于此，最大收购美国公司的一家美国公司 - 在芝加哥放下了根源。与城市的麦哲伦开发集团合作，万达正在建立10亿美元的酒店和公寓塔，称为万达Vista Tower。这座建筑物将是刮风城的第三最高，是较大，混合用途开发的“皇冠宝石”，目前正在建设中，其240间客房豪华酒店将根据肖恩·临安的说法在万达品牌下面麦哲伦发展高级副总裁。万达已经拥有大约70家中国酒店;最新项目的时间与其全球扩展计划对齐。
“中国有巨大的增长，但（万达）不能仅靠在中国建设来维持这种增长，”林纳恩说，他评估了麦哲伦在芝加哥及其周边郊区的发展机会。
Anbang最近的交易也是更广泛的扩张努力的一部分。除了其美国财产收购外，该公司还积极购买全球的保险资产。在远离最终的偏东赛的最终竞价140亿美元后，安邦浪费了达成协议购买韩国德国金融服务公司的运营Allianzfor about $3 million. At last year’s Harvard recruitment event, CEO Wu said that Anbang plans to expand into peer-to-peer lending and health care, and that an IPO is in the cards. But the real estate deals have captured the market’s attention.
在去年夏天亚博赞助欧冠机构投资者和CNBC提供阿尔法会议, Blackstone’s global head of real estate, Jonathan Gray, said the Waldorf sale was not just another wildly overpriced foreign transaction. “When you look five, ten, 15 years from now, it’ll look like a smart investment,” Gray told CNBC’s David Faber. “I think it’s easy sometimes to dismiss when the headlines [say], ‘The foreign buyers bought something, therefore it doesn’t make a lot of sense.’ I don’t think that’s really the case.”
格雷指出，有两件事预示着房地产界的麻烦：“资本和起重机”。他澄清说，前者实际上是一个杠杆问题。当大量资金涌入一个市场，并且大部分资金被杠杆化时，就像目前中国房地产行业的情况一样，回调的可能性很大。在美国有很多追逐资本的交易，但贷款机构对深奥的融资持谨慎态度。然而，起重机或过度建设和开发的问题可能取决于观察者的观点。根据STR酒店研究公司的数据，今年年初，纽约市有13000多间酒店客房在建，比美国任何一个城市都多，入住率已经接近85%。有人想知道接下来会发生什么。
“我们以前见过这一点，”佩斯尼亚尼亚的中心投资管理普利茅斯会议的首席投资策略师Scott Crowbe说，该公司负责监督68亿美元的房地产和基础设施证券。“在金融危机面前，酒店有很多钱。每个人都是品牌意识到他们，所以人们倾向于被他们吸引。问题在于，在一个周期上，赚钱往往挑战，特别是如果你在循环中以后购买。“
经济学家们对我们在当前周期中到底走得有多晚存在一些分歧，但克罗指出，以酒店为重点的房地产投资信托基金（REIT）股票近期表现不佳，是一个潜在的危险信号。城市土地研究所（urbanlandinstitute）的数据显示，2015年，房地产投资信托基金的股价下跌了约20%。但许多房地产专家和投资者对即将到来的经济衰退的担忧置之不理，相信美国商业地产周期仍有相当大的上升空间。
Sitting in a white armchair in his office在曼哈顿金融区28楼的44楼，三月下午，Fosun International的美国代表博伟，通过关于Cirque du Soleil的翻译，动画地发表动画。该剧院公司于4月份启动其首次百老汇展，并归功于博叫该公司的全球化交易之一，其中它在Cirque du Soleil获得了股份，他可以访问相当良好的座位。太空Bo占据了28个自由 - 以前称为曼哈顿广场，也通过了他的贸易化到全球化。
2013年，Jamie Dimon主席Jamie Dimon在占据了大约4,000名占地面标志建筑物的员工的银行准备缩小。摩根大通追逐“遍布城市和整个城市的强势存在”，该银行在当时的一份声明中表示，但它不再占据220万平方英尺的建筑。在stepped Fosun, which had become known in the previous two decades for its global investing prowess, putting more than $10 billion to work overseas since 2010 alone, about half of that in the U.S. Although Fosun invests in everything from retail brands like Folli Follie to luxury resorts like Club Med, when the company decided it was time to move into New York, it seemed clear that its target should be a piece of trophy real estate.
薄熙来说：“纽约市不仅是美国的城市，也是一个全球性的城市。复星确信，当地和全国房地产市场的健康状况将保证其支付的价格将准确反映房地产的价值。这一价格——2013年10月商定的7.25亿美元——成为当时中国买家购买纽约一栋建筑的最昂贵价格。大通银行的客户仍然可以访问大楼人行道上的自动取款机，该银行仍在几层楼设有金库，但谷歌搜索一下“One Chase Manhattan Plaza”就会找到“28 Liberty Street”。在里面，复星占据了一层半，一位风水大师为它的到来做了准备，除了接待处附近华丽的大理石墙外，装饰得很稀疏。
Deals like this one — which saw an icon of New York City’s status as the U.S.’s financial engine change hands to a foreign firm with big expansion plans — remind some investors of Mitsubishi Estate Co.’s nearly $2 billion investment in Rockefeller Center. That deal became the cautionary tale of the late 1980s Japanese frenzy for U.S. real estate and other assets. The spree was fueled in part by a 1985 currency agreement that devalued the dollar, encouraging Japanese trade with the U.S. Shortly after Mitsubishi acquired its 80 percent stake in the 14 buildings that make up Rockefeller Center, Japanese inflation led to an interest rate spike, Tokyo’s equity markets plunged, and a harsh correction followed, pulling much of the recent Japanese investment in the U.S. down with it. Mitsubishi ultimately sold its stake through a bankruptcy proceeding.
当时，日本投资者就像中国投资者一样，争辩，他们支付的高价格，随后市场所需的价格甚至更高的价格都是合理的。“Their theme was that they’re long-term holders, so they can afford to pay a little more up front, but that didn’t turn out so well because the fundamentals of the markets changed,” says Ray Cirz, head of valuations at New York–based property valuation and consulting firm Integra Realty Resources.
China’s current economic status is different from the story of Japan in the ’80s, but quickly changing fundamentals could play a role in some investors’ decision making. Hayman Capital’s Bass has been publicly warning about an impending credit crisis in China since 2014, and he sees the current U.S. spending spree as part of a broader set of troubling signs. “It’s so obvious to see what’s going to happen in the next year or two, and yet investors look at China with reverence and believe it can do no wrong,” Bass says.
即使是一些参与交易的中国投资者，也有助于推高价，现在认为市场过热。2013年，SOHO中国首席执行官张欣在普通汽车建设中购买了一股股份，估值在34亿美元的价格。她最近说目前的价格对她来说太昂贵了，以考虑另一个这样的交易。“我今天不会让那个投资，全部停下来，”她在9月在上海开业的Soho中国办事处开业。
当安邦买了Waldorf时，很少有分析师可以抵抗与日本的比较。这是一个雄心勃勃的纽约酒店，价格标签尖叫多付款。但在2015年1月的哈佛，吴告诉潜在的招聘房间，他已经完成了数学和酒店实际上是偷窃 - 特别是考虑到他的公司计划将其保持100多年，与希尔顿处理管理层。吴说，每平方米每平方米（每平方米约1,086美元）的总投资达到约11,700美元（每平方英尺）。他说：“与中国北京金融街有40年的土地利用权，在中国北京金融街上的每平方米100,000元人民币[那时约16,000人]拍卖相比，这种奖杯酒店的这种奖杯酒店的所有权非常便宜。”
“作为美国的象征，华尔道夫阿斯托里亚代表着美国的光荣历史和精神，”吴说，在哈佛大学。“中国梦想与美国梦共享许多相似之处，但需要通过实力实现伟大的梦想。我们必须在每项投资中取得成功，安邦的战略是将每一项胜利视为一个新的起点。“
安邦的企业专注于体现水的品质包括拥抱变革。像水一样，房地产市场倾向于退潮和流动。20世纪80年代的班次占据了美国的许多日本投资者。如果人们喜欢对冲基金经理Bass，那些看到2008年金融危机的早期警告标志，结果对中国的信贷紧缩或货币贬值是正确的，与日本的经常假设比较将是一个更认真的事情。•
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