Nigeria’s Peaceful Transition Boosts Markets and Growth Hopes

With the economy reeling from low oil prices and corruption running rampant, Nigerians looked to their new leader, Muhammadu Buhari, to restore order and prosperity. “Nigerians applaud as Buhari fills cabinet with nonpoliticians,” read the headline in theChristian Science Monitor，反映了该国更好的日子的广泛希望。

That was on January 23, 1984, barely three weeks after Buhari had seized power in a military coup. The hopes didn’t last long. Buhari was deposed in another coup the following year.

Thirty years later Africa’s most populous country and largest economy is still too dependent on oil — it generates 70 percent of government revenues — and has suffered from theplunge in crude prices在过去的九个月内，虽然腐败仍然是以前的特有。然而，尼日利亚人民再次在布哈里寄予希望。他在3月28日在3月28日在3月28日在3月28日举行的胜利胜利，比乔纳森的43.7％相比，投票的52.4％代表着一个地标Nigeria’s democratic development. It marked the first time an incumbent president had lost an election, and initial signs point to a smooth transition; Jonathan conceded before all the votes were in, and street violence was contained, a stark contrast to the riots that erupted in 2011.

结果应加强长期投资和增长前景。然而，大多数将取决于布哈里的政策和团队，他需要在29个就职典礼之前组装。这次，他不能只是选择一群技术专家。尼日利亚的宪法规定，部长署来自其所有36个国家，帮助布哈里赢的政治家将期望得到奖励。

吸引最多猜测的一些名称是州长面临术语限制。Rotimi Amaechi，河流州的传出州长，六位其他州长在统治人民民主党叛逆于2013年的反对派所有进步主义者。他们的效忠的转型给予了挑战主席所需的突发事件;只有后来它是在布哈里定居的候选人。

Rivers is an oil-producing state and home to some of the Niger Delta region’s militant groups. Local media speculation has suggested that Amaechi could be named to head the Energy or Defense ministry. Other major cabinet posts could go to Babatunde Fashola, who has won credit as governor of Lagos state for improving municipal services in the country’s biggest city, and Kayode Fayemi, the former governor of the southwestern state of Ekiti.

关于Obiageli Ezekwesili的财务岗位中心关键部长的猜测。她会填补大鞋。现任者Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala与外国政府和投资者享有强烈的信誉，尽管由于与乔纳森的协会，她在家里失去了普及。EZEKWESILI拥有类似令人印象深刻的简历，并提供资格，帮助布哈里履行他的承诺削减腐败。她曾担任教育​​部长，并在2000年代的前总统Olusegun Opasanjo下的固体矿物质，并担任预算监测机构，该机构致力于清理公共采购流程。就像Okonjo-iweala一样，她在世界银行也做了一家Stint，从2007年到2012年担任非洲副总裁。

关于潜在内阁被任命的猜测可能比选举过程本身的纯粹成功不那么重要。“现在，尼日利亚的名字并不是那么多，因为民主赢了，”非洲最大的贷方标准银行集团投资产品负责人Marcel Mballa-Ekobena说。

That helps explain why Nigerian stocks rallied for a tenth day on April 2, bringing the cumulative rally in that period to more than 22 percent, while bonds yields dropped to four-month lows. The currency has not rallied, however. The naira has traded narrowly around 199 to the dollar. The尼日利亚中央银行has spent $4.69 billion of reserves to defend the naira this year, but even so, it has declined just over 9 percent since the start of the year. The naira is still headed for a drop, according to analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, because there is a gap between the official and black-market rates. They predict the currency will average 215 to the dollar this year, which is closer to the black-market rate reported in newspapers. With a strong U.S. dollar, a recovery is too much to expect. “Stability is the new recovery,” says Mballa-Ekobena.

Once Buhari assembles his team, one of his biggest challenges will be addressing several major issues in the energy sector. The president-elect is expected to disclose the details of an audit of the state oil company, Nigerian National Petroleum Corp. (NNPC), portfolio manager Joseph Rohm ofInvestec Asset Management在4月1日写道上写道。前央行总督拉米德·萨松（Lamido Sanusi）被迫去年乔纳森总统在Sanusi据称，该公司躲避了大约20亿美元的石油收入;乔纳森以后订购审计。

石油生产商一直在major new investment in offshore production because the government’s failure to adopt a comprehensive overhaul of energy laws. The pending Petroleum Industry Bill would increase the government’s take of offshore production and spun-off parts of NNPC, which currently acts as both an operator and a regulator. “That could make it easier for NNPC to tap global capital markets,” says David Livingston, an associate in the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Energy and Climate Program. Livingston also says Buhari’s team could choose to act on an existing plan to stop flaring natural gas and use it for power and industry instead.

布哈里承诺继续与政府当前的电力部门改革议程，其中包括私有化国家资产和开放投资部门。他还承诺在活动期间提高更加重视可再生能源。据Noi民意油民意调查（基于Abuja的研究公司Noi民意调查，Power Power是尼日利亚人想要解决的最重要的六个月，其中68％是他们的主要关注点。该国在2011年仅生产了每人电力135千瓦时，只有1％的美国水平。政府旨在增加2020年的发电能力十倍。

Security was second on the list, at 58 percent. Although Buhari is expected to leave economic policy to his ministers, he could take a hands-on approach to the fight againstBoko Haram，激进的伊斯兰群体在该国东北举行了众多袭击事件。

Thus far the formerly violent Niger Delta region, where militants once attacked oil infrastructure and kidnapped anyone who could return a healthy ransom, has remained peaceful. Jonathan comes from this region, and locals want more control over their lands and more of the profits from oil. In the past a northern Muslim like Buhari taking office could have been expected to trigger violence. This time one of the main militant groups, the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, has pledged to support Buhari. That provides another reason to feel better about the future in Africa’s largest country.