吉迪政策：全球信贷市场感受到了力量

在乔治卢卡斯的经典电影系列中，Star Wars，“力”被描述为由周围的所有生物创造的能量场，并将其单位星系。今天，该部队似乎与世界三个最强大的中央银行人员居住：美联储珍妮特耶伦，欧洲央行Mario Draghi.和日本央行Haruhiko Kuroda.

即使美联储在2014年完成其定量宽松（见图1），中央银行也一直吸收高质量的主权债券的一部分高质量的净供应。这种需求推动了总体的君主收益率令人难以置信的低水平（见图2），同时全球信贷差价仍然宽于他们的长期平均值。

图1：汇总央行资产负债表继续上涨，占GDP的百分比

资料来源：欧洲央行，欧洲央行统计办公室，日本银行，日本内阁办事处，经济分析局，2014年第四季度彭博，截至3月30日。

Chart 2: Global Sovereign Yields Continue to Fall

Source: Bloomberg, as of March

The Force can bring sovereign yields down. It canpunish depositors for holding cash through negative rates. It can also encourage risk-taking as investors search for high-yielding assets to escape financial constraints. This risk-taking can support prices of assets thatcentral banks没有直接购买。这种资产价格升值甚至可以通过财富效应支持真正的经济增长。陪审团仍然是这种增长的可持续性。我们将把它留给未来的历史学家。

The next possible disruption to the Force will be when the Fed begins hiking U.S. rates. Our base case is around the third quarter of 2015. The Fed has attempted to reduce some volatility associated with the rate hike by lowering its dot-plot forecasts for 2015 and 2016. Nonetheless, the implication for investors is, first, to keep some dry powder with the aim of taking advantage of a disturbance in the central bank’s Force and, second, to be armed with the fundamental research for when that disturbance creates opportunities in given sectors.

The central bank policies provide not only a lot of interesting opportunities in the credit markets but also a number of potential pitfalls. We evaluate credit using three broad considerations: fundamentals, technicals and valuations.

基础知识。Broadly, corporate debt levels relative to profits appear to be in line with long-term averages (see chart 3). Additionally, improving economic fundamentals in the U.S. — as evidenced by the declining unemployment rate and incremental cash in consumers’ pockets by way of lower energy costs — provide a supportive backdrop for credit. Similarly, in Europe, stabilizing and improving purchasing managers’ index data support credit fundamentals.

图3：公司债务符合长期平均值

Source: Haver Analytics, as of December 2014

技术。This is where central bank policy, particularly in Europe and Japan, remains most supportive for global credit. By making deposit rates negative and buying sovereign bonds, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan are pushing investors to look for other sources of yield. Globally, high-quality credit should benefit from this as investors look for relatively safe but higher sources of yield.

Valuations.Current credit spreads are wider than the long-term average, making for an attractive entry point. Additionally, during prior rate hike periods we have seen credit spreads tighten over time, since rate hikes are also associated with improving economic growth, which helps credit fundamentals (see chart 4).

Chart 4: BBB Credit Spreads Have Tightened in the 12 Months Following the First Rate Hike in Each of the Last Eight Hiking Cycles

来源：穆迪，Haver;目前截至2月28日

In the U.S. housing-related credits, banks and sectors tied to more consumer-spending power, like auto sales, airlines and lodging, look attractive. In Europe we like peripheral sovereign spreads, exporters that benefit from a weaker currency and subordinated bank securities.

与此同时，避免进入黑暗方面的建设公司，这些公司估值不是基础知识，而是由中央银行政策的人为支持。向我们来说，这些将包括选择面对商业模式中过时风险的美国零售和技术公司。同样，在欧洲，许多企业的信贷传播现在比敌人传播更紧凑，因此看起来不那么有吸引力。最后，在亚太地区，我们预计中国钢铁需求的下行风险将转化为金属和矿业公司的弱点in the region. The Force cannot make corporate managers smarter. It does not change the competitiveness of a company. It does not make products suddenly more appealing, and it does not make a secularly declining business profitable.

凭借他们的大资产负债表，今天的央行比以往任何时候都更强大。投资者应该在寻求卓越的回报时寻找其他地方的机会，而不是被负面或无法忽视的屈服。沿着类似的线条，基本学分研究现在比以往任何时候都更重要。专注于公司提高业务基本面，进入高障碍和强大的定价能力以及可削弱的公司。最后，认识到，全球范围内的货币政策依赖可能会导致市场波动增加。准备好利用这些机会，愿力量与您同在。

Mohit Mittal is a managing director and portfolio manager of investment-grade credit, total return and unconstrained bond portfolios at太平洋投资管理有限公司在加利福尼亚州纽波特海滩的总部。

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