亚洲开发银行首席经济学家尚金伟并不害羞，以至于已知他不同意前美国财政部长劳伦斯夏季。“我们不订阅Larry Summers提出的世俗停滞假设 - 即世界增长将停滞不前，长时间留在那里，”魏告诉亚博赞助欧冠。“我们没有看到该地区增长率的世俗衰退。”
50魏先生为他在菲律宾为基础的亚行的Manila的角色提供了全球性的角度，最近将年度信用推动了48个发展中国家的年度，而是高达200亿美元。他去年8月加入了哥伦比亚大学的多边贷方，他是一名金融和经济学教授和N.T.中国商业与经济的王席。一个举办博士学位的中国出生的美国公民。在加利福尼亚大学的经济学中，魏先生在国际货币基金组织贸易和投资司助理主任兼贸易和投资司。他还有关于开发亚洲国家面临的挑战的第一手了解，担任IMF于2004年缅甸的使命主任。
Among other developments, Wei is keeping an eye on the imminent launch of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, which plans to follow the ADB’s lead by financing highways, ports and other infrastructure throughout Asia. He recently spoke with Asia Bureau Chief Allen T. Cheng about the region’s prospects.
今年亚洲的展望是什么？
发展中国家于2014年增长了6.3％，我们预测该地区将在2015年和2016年实现6.3％的国内生产总值6.3％。我们认为发展中国家表现不错，并将在不久的将来继续做好。这并不是说没有持续的挑战。
我们正在寻找中国等大型亚副成员国以及增长模式将如何变化。有些因素导致增长放缓，例如萎缩的劳动力和劳动力成本更高，而其他因素会导致生产力的改善，如金融部门的结构改革和国有企业改革。
While we see a gradual moderation of the growth rate in China, we don’t see it falling off a cliff. The中国经济is already bigger than that of the U.S. in purchasing power parity terms. It is on track to surpass the U.S. at the market exchange rate within a decade. Of course, China is still a much poorer country, which means it still has room to maintain a relatively robust growth rate.
我们的其他两个大型成员国，印度和印度尼西亚，已经开始了一些改革，这将有助于他们的私营部门更快地扩大。因此，我们的第2和第3号发展中经济体将比最近的过去更好。较低的燃料价格will also be good for our members.
Which countries are you most optimistic about in the short to medium term?
In the next few years, several of our subregions stand out. We mentionedIndia使其投资环境更加灵活地更加灵活。他们还没有那里，但他们正在取得进步，大多数投资者似乎都有这种感觉。
在孟加拉国，有大规模的罢工，破坏了生产，目前投资者情绪下降。孟加拉国超越临时政治不稳定，孟加拉国将自己融入全球价值链，特别是在服装部门。在服装出口方面，它仅次于中国。缅甸和越南也希望扩大他们的纺织和服装行业。两者都希望在未来几十年中复制中国的成功。
印尼面临很多challenges historically, but you now have a very reform-minded president who understands the importance of investing in infrastructure and improving the investment climate. Joko Widodo has implemented a fuel subsidy reform that takes advantage of lower fuel prices. He is also starting very ambitious infrastructure projects around the country and not just focusing on the central Java area. The president wants to build up many more ports so different islands can be better linked and help Indonesia integrate into Asia’s production value chains.
菲律宾最近也在增长。他们认识到需要改进基础设施，使政策更加友好地私人投资。菲律宾有一个大型水库的勤劳英语人。当政府改善治理和投资气候时，它会释放出良好的势头。
In the medium term, this is a very hopeful region. People work hard; they value education and hard work and are willing to take risk and to invest. All they need in addition are governments that can provide stable politics and stable economic policies and have reasonable control of expropriation risks and corruption. As long as these conditions are in place, this region can do well.
该地区许多国家已经在中等收入范围内。教育的重要性，鼓励创新和促进知识产权的重要性随收入而上升。这些国家认识到这一点，正在谈论越来越多的人力资本投资，改善教育体系，因此劳动力可以更多的市场和未来导向。这ADB.is doing its part to assist countries in this endeavor, including with projects in technical and vocational education.
In the next five years, the ten members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations are phasing out tariffs to create a $2.4 trillion free-trade zone. Will they succeed?
自20世纪50年代以来，东南亚地区的经济一体化一直在继续。东盟成员国之间的增长步伐是不均匀的。在东盟，世界上有一些最开放的经济体。例如，新加坡没有关税和贸易投资的不协调障碍。东盟还包括一些不那么开放的经济体，其中包括缅甸，这有许多障碍。我们必须在起点中认识到这种不均匀性。
整体东盟一直取得良好的进步，贸易壁垒正在下降。旨在使跨境投资气候从一个成员国自由化到另一个成员国的改革进展。例如，现在开始相互承认的专业资格，例如医生和护士。随着时间的推移，一个东盟国家的医生和护士可以在另一个国家自由起作用。这不仅会促进分享繁荣，而且还提高所有成员国的效率。
在某些领域，东盟融合到目前为止，对于北美自由贸易协定的成员而言，这一点更加成功。东盟成员认为开放区域主义。当大多数国家决定降低关税时，他们通常多边化并扩大对非东盟国家的利益。
Many other regions don’t do that. When lower tariffs came into effect among NAFTA members, Mexico raised tariffs on imports from other nations. The U.S. increased antidumping cases on imports from non-NAFTA countries; some of these usages are recognized by economists as protectionism in disguise.
因此，区域一体化框架真正成功的关键是它是包容性的，而不是排他性的。因为东盟采用包容性和开放区域主义的原则，这是世界其他地方的一个很好的例子。
在亚洲金融危机期间，东盟成员马来西亚通过不采取震动治疗方法和拒绝援助而藐视国际货币基金组织。你对该战略的看法是什么？
马来西亚believes certain types of capital controls can be beneficial in managing a crisis. That was not the view of the IMF and the世界银行at the time of the Asian financial crisis, but they have since revised that view. In that way, Malaysia is right. We are finding that certain forms of capital controls that moderate toward welcoming foreign direct investment and not hot money tend to provide stability.
Other emerging markets that do not have macro prudential policies that regulate cross-border capital flows tend to not be as resilient to foreign monetary or financial shocks and can be affected more negatively during a crisis.
马来西亚has reached high middle-income status. It is aiming to transform itself into a high-income country like Singapore or Australia. A vibrant developed country should have more than just a high per capita income. To be such a society, it needs to accelerate education, legal, governance and capital market reforms. Malaysia is making progress but can do much more. It is facing a bit of brain drain, with much talent migrating to Australia, Singapore and elsewhere. This slows down the pace at which it could become a developed country. Malaysia can make better use of existing human capital by training and retaining talent and by offering equal and maximum opportunities to all people, regardless of their background, so they don’t leave.
中国is leading the launch of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. Does the region need another multilateral lender?
这re is a very big financing need for more and better infrastructure in Asia. The ADB estimates that the region requires about $750 billion in infrastructure investment annually in the next few years. Relative to the need, additional funding can be helpful.