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希腊绊向于欧元出口吗?

糟糕的血液,巨额债务和迫在眉睫的截止日期让欧盟官员更公开地谈论格雷克利特,希望能够限制传染。

像一对似乎无法停止战斗的老夫妇,希腊及其欧洲联盟合作伙伴想知道是时候前往离婚法院的时候了。

欧洲最大,最受失控的债务人的传奇似乎是可互化的,充分原因。已经威胁要破坏单一货币超过五年。然而,希腊危机似乎正在进入一个新的,潜在的致命,阶段作为疲惫和相互指定的阶段将双方推向不可撤销破裂的边缘。

Signs of fatigue and frustration were more evident than ever at thespring meetings of the International Monetary Fund in Washington,促使官员谈论从欧元区的希腊退出几乎就好像这是一个不可避免的结果而不是缔约方决心避免的结果。

欧盟和国际货币基金组织官员强调,欧元区经济今日应对收到格雷克利特的辐射,这是一个更好的地方。欧盟创造了欧洲稳定机制的永久救助设施,以帮助陷入困境的国家。援助计划帮助葡萄牙,西班牙在他们面前就像爱尔兰一样回到脚下。和European Central Bankhas shrunk credit spreads drastically and fueled an economic revival with its quantitative easing program.

Mario Draghi那the ECB president who almost single-handedly calmed fears of a breakup nearly three years ago by promising to do “whatever it takes” to save the euro, summed up the collective attitude when he said, “We are better equipped now than in 2012, 2011 or 2010” to cope with the risks of Grexit. Olivier Blanchard, the IMF chief economist, said the risks of contagion from a Greek exit appeared manageable: “It would still not be clear sailing, but it could probably be done.”

有很多的错误在各方since Greece acknowledged back in January 2010 that its deficit and debt were far higher than official figures suggested. The original aid program agreed upon by the EU, the ECB and the IMF contained wildly unrealistic projections of how quickly Greece could return to growth and saddled the country with an unsustainable debt burden. Subsequent revisions offered the Greeks substantial concessions in terms of lengthening maturities and lowering interest rates on the debt in exchange for promises from Athens to undertake serious long-term reforms of everything from its tax collection system to labor and product market rules. Successive Greek governments have dragged their feet in adopting and implementing many of those reforms. But by late last year, the Greek economy showed tentative signs of recovery and the banking system and public finances were stabilizing.

然而,情况迅速恶化,因为Alexis Tsipras和他的叙利亚派对赢得了一场席卷选举胜利1月份在抗霹雳舞平台上。欧盟官员对希腊的困境有很多同情。该国遭遇了一个真正毁灭性的抑郁症,经济产量下降,自危机爆发以来,失业率近25%,公共债务占国内生产总值的175%。他们还承认,锡鲁萨的大选在希腊的地面上改变了政治现实,从长远来看,更加欧洲的债务不可避免的债务。

Yet EU and IMF officials have grown exasperated at the apparent unwillingness or inability of Tsipras and his Finance minister,yanis varoufakis.,从事关于让希腊的救助计划重新开始追踪的方法的认真讨论。希腊语BrinkManship在最近几周飙升的政府债券的产量派遣,从银行系统中造成了新的资金流出,并在违约后离开了政府,因为它面临着一系列主要债务还款。然而,为了应对越来越大的压力,雅典似乎下降了。本月在希腊在第二次世界大战期间为希腊犯下的纳粹暴行时需要近3000亿欧元(3230亿美元)的努力,为柏林和雅典之间严重紧张的关系,要求德国的纳粹暴行赔偿。

In a speech in Washington last week, Wolfgang Schäuble, the German Finance minister, dismissed the reparation claim as “completely unrealistic” and effectively told the Tsipras government to let him know when it’s ready to talk. “It’s entirely down to Greece,” he said.

Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the Dutch Finance minister and president of the Eurogroup, recalled during a separate address in Washington his first trip to meet with Syriza officials in Athens earlier this year. He said he had a productive discussion with Varoufakis about potential modifications to the bailout program but that when they gave a joint press conference afterward, “Mr. Varoufakis went back into election mode,” slamming the EU as inflexible and demanding major concessions.

Officials are playing down the prospect of a breakthrough at an EU Finance ministers meeting in Riga, Latvia, later this week. The real question is whether the two sides can reach an agreement before major debt servicing bills start coming due in early May. In Washington everyone from U.S. Treasury secretary Jacob Lew to French Finance minister Michel Sapin to IMF managing directorChristine Lagarde加强了雅典的口头压力。然而,封闭的门谈和公开辩论没有为乐观主义的乐观产生新的理由,即两个营地可以达成避免希腊违约和格雷克利特的协议。

许多欧盟首都的真实讨论似乎正在转移到计划B:如何在欧盟留下欧盟的希腊。在欧盟法律下没有这样的规定,但随着弗拉基米尔·普京试图通过暗示俄罗斯对希腊的暗示作为一种违反欧盟对俄罗斯制裁墙的方式来利用债务危机,欧盟官员渴望限制格雷克利的堕落。他们现在公开地对此情景谈话的事实表明出口的风险大幅上升。欧盟可以真正抑制出口的传染效果吗?没有人可以确认。最接近的并行可以建议美国当局的命运决定让雷曼兄弟持有人于2008年去墙,这应该足以让任何政策制定者或投资者在夜间保持醒来。

Draghi summed up the mood when he said he didn’t want to even contemplate the prospect of a Greek exit from the euro. “We all want Greece to succeed,” he said. “The answer is in the hands of the Greek government.”

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