由于页岩输出增长，美国石油和天然气出口到墨西哥繁荣

For decades Washington politicians have evoked the dream of a North American energy alliance that would deliver Mexico’s abundant hydrocarbons to factories and motor vehicles in the U.S. That dream seemed closer to reality when Mexico last year passed historic energy reforms to open its oil and gas fields to private investment.

今天，联盟愿景是现实，但能源流动是混淆的期望。这是推动墨西哥工厂和汽车的蓬勃发展的美国能源部门。“Energy integration between the U.S. and Mexico is more important than ever,” says Lisa Viscidi, a program director at the Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington-based think tank, and author of a March report on the impact of the U.S. energy boom on Latin America. “But it has turned out very differently than people expected.”

德克萨斯州页岩producersare exporting natural gas south of the border that will soon generate most of the electricity consumed by Mexican industry. Meanwhile, thanks largely to the Mexican market, the U.S. has become the world’s biggest exporter of refined oil products.

15年前，美国开始将汽油和柴油燃料出口到墨西哥。但由于丰富的尺寸，小规模的开始急剧增加美国页岩油生产，下降国内需求和持续禁止美国石油出口。在原油中，美国炼油厂在过去十年中向拉丁美洲的精炼油产品（如汽油和柴油）的销售增长了两倍。根据Viscidi的说法，墨西哥是最大的市场，占美国石油产品出口的29％。

这个博纳扎在彼此的上游和下游行业都坐了。石油生产商表示，美国禁令遭受伤害原油出口，1973年将加入阿拉斯加石油去日本，他们正在努力提升它。自美国政府自20世纪80年代初开始，液压油田的液压压裂从2010年4月的每天增加了550万桶至940万桶。由于出口禁令，这种胶水令人沮丧的价格West Texas Intermediate, the benchmark U.S. crude, to some $7 to $12 below the international benchmark, Brent, according to a March report by IHS, an energy and economics consultancy. The report contends that free trade in crude would generate 124,000 U.S. jobs annually and boost the country’s gross domestic product by $26 billion a year between 2016 and 2030.

炼油厂乞求不同。他们坚持认为，他们增加了石油出口的价值，并改善了美国贸易平衡。他们争辩说，提升禁令将有助于外国炼油厂获得市场份额并提高WTI的成本。“为什么现在重申法律？”Monroe Energy的宾夕法尼亚州培训师总裁兼首席执行官杰弗里温暖兼首席执行官在3月份在粗暴的出口禁令的参议院听证会上。“我们正在开发真正的能源独立性的尖端，在那里我们可以生产 - 并改进 - 几乎所有我们的石油都需要在家里。”

On one issue, there is no debate: The shale revolution has made U.S. refineries among the world’s most competitive. They have access to cheap crude for making refined oil products and cheap natural gas to power their refineries. Already benefitting from better pipeline networks and bigger tanker fleets than rivals abroad, refiners like Marathon Petroleum Corp. and Phillips 66 are cutting out middlemen and gathering crude supplies directly from independent shale oil producers such as Chesapeake Energy Corp. and Pioneer Natural Resources Co. Crude deliveries direct from wells to refineries were nearly 400,000 bpd in 2013, or double the 2010 total, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

The increasing efficiency of U.S. refiners is in stark contrast to the declining productivity of Mexican refineries. State oil and gas monopoly Petróleos Mexicanos has been unable to make the investments needed to upgrade its aging refineries or build new ones. The government depends on Pemex revenues for about 30 percent of its budget, and the fall in oil prices has led to cuts and delays in plans to expand refining capacity. Mexico already depends on U.S. refineries for half of its gasoline, and imports seem certain to rise.

“墨西哥国内供应汽油一直在衰落，即使是能源改革，也不太可能随时改变，”纽约的石油和天然气分析师在桑福德·伯恩斯坦的纽约石油和天然气分析师鲍勃贝雷特。“你必须预计汽油从美国进口。”

因此，天然气进口也将在墨西哥工业发行发电中发挥着至关重要的作用。目前，墨西哥工厂严重依赖于燃料油和柴油产生的电力，这是天然气昂贵的三倍。因此，制造商比美国工厂的电力平均支付80％。转向气体发电将缩小差距，提高墨西哥制造出口的竞争力，2014年达到30040亿美元，超过所有其他拉丁美洲国家的工业出口收入。

2014年墨西哥进口third of its natural gas from the U.S., mainly from Texas shale producers. Those imports will rise by 45 percent this year, thanks to the completion last December of the 70-mile-long first phase of the Los Ramones pipeline running from the Texas border into the northern Mexican state of Nuevo León, home of the industrial city of Monterrey. This first phase of the $2.5 billion pipeline is a joint venture of Pemex and San Diego–based Sempra Energy.

A second phase, which will extend Los Ramones another 390 miles south to the motor vehicle and auto parts factories in the central state of Guanajuato, has drawn an additional $900 million investment from New York–based BlackRock and First Reserve, a $30 billion energy-focused investment firm based in Greenwich, Connecticut. When completed in December 2016, Los Ramones will have the capacity to pipe 2 billion cubic feet of gas per day from the Texas shale fields, equal to the total of U.S. natural gas exports to Mexico in 2014.

Mexican energy reforms pushed through last year by President Enrique Peña Nieto will put up for auction both conventional oil and shale gas deposits. Mexico’s so-called Burgos Basin is a continuation of the same shale formation as Eagle Ford across the Texas border. But a lack of pipeline infrastructure and water essential for fracking makes development of the Burgos Basin a low priority for investors. “Most U.S. shale oil and gas companies have incredibly full plates at home and no desire to go elsewhere just now,” says John Padilla, Mexico City–based managing director of IPD Latin America, an energy consultancy.