Daily Agenda: U.S. Equity Market in Glass Half-Full Conundrum

Disappointing U.S. GDP data came out late last week. At 2.6 percent growth for the final three months of 2014, the figures from the Bureau of Economic Analysis revealed the impacts of the growing global malaise on domestic activity. For consumers,cheap fuelA.strong U.S. dollarhave led to a rebound in household spending that drove consumption measures to reach a multiyear high. Exports were impacted by the strong dollar, however, and growing uncertainty over future monetary policy at home and abroad have contributed to stagnating wages and slowing corporate investment levels. Figuring out whether the economic glass is half empty or half full for U.S.–based companies is critical for investors figuring out how to position their portfolios. With clear indications of a continued rotation into股权市场的防御部门和新的一周开始，国债曲线的力量，广泛的情绪似乎赞成准备最糟糕的事情。

Chinese factory numbers register slowdown.最终1月汇丰银行制造商品购买经理数据为中国的季节性调整49.7确认了萎缩，对12月阅读的边际改善。由于投入价格继续下降，削弱就业需求削弱是重大的。

希腊债务的紧张局势上升。在周末，希腊财政部长延田·瓦鲁·菲拉斯（Yanis Varoufakis）重申他的政府有意与国际债权人谈判债务重组计划，同时坚持不需要新的信用额度。最近，德国领导人继续公开继续，坚持希腊必须对所有未突出的债券予以良好。另外，报告已经浮出水面，即欧洲中央银行可以按月的结束特别短期抵押品安排在希腊银行的特殊短期抵押品安排，如果该国家的政府持续抗结构行动。

PMI data in Europe disappoints.Final German manufacturing purchasing managers’ index data for January released today registered at 50.9, weaker than the flash reading, with the critical employment subindex retreating further than analysts had forecasted. Aggregate headline index levels for the euro zone remained unchanged at 51.

ExxonMobil reports quarterly earnings.< Oil major ExxonMobil reported this morning fourth-quarter 2014 earnings of $6.57 billion, or $1.56 per diluted share. While representing a 21 percent decline over the final three months of 2013, the results were significantly higher than consensus analyst forecasts despite the extreme pressure on margins from declining oil prices. Excluding certain factors, total ExxonMobil production grew 3.8 percent year-over-year.

U.S. consumer and manufacturing data on deck.在美国12月的个人消费支出数据，预计会表明家庭支出放缓，因为抑制个人收入数据抵消了低燃料成本的降低价格。另外，预计供应管理制造号码将在1月份保持平坦。上个月的工厂调查的标题读数在55.5的六个月内在六个月内进入最柔软的水平，这表明美国制造商越来越多地感受到国外弱势的影响。

投资组合视角：美国股市展望—Adam Grimes, Waverly Advisors

Stocks were mixed last week, with the U.S. showing a slight decline. Though this move appears to be at odds with our long-term call for U.S. outperformance, this is most likely simply a short-term bump in the road — or, more properly, force of mean reversion at work in those relative performance spreads. We still see every sign of U.S. outperformance on horizons of one quarter or longer, however.

In U.S. stocks, pay attention to the spread between small and large-cap stocks. Small-caps have lagged decisively for a full year, but we are starting to see some shifts in that spread. Contrary to popular opinion, small-cap leadership is not essential for a broad market rally but it would almost certainly be supportive. Watch this spread carefully over the next month.

We hold overweights in aggressive sectors including consumer discretionary, technology, health care and financials, and an underweight in materials. Financials have our attention recently, as weakness there is inconsistent with leadership. Despite broad tech weakness, a few key Tech subindexes, such as computers & Peripherals, continue to hold on to strength. The market is locked in broad consolidation, however, and some degree of noise is to be expected. Slight underperformance is well within our risk tolerance and for now, we continue to hold overweights with no adjustment.

It is also interesting to consider the sources of strength in the market. A few standout industries to consider such as airlines, biotech companies, specialty retail andreal estate investment trusts保持明确的领导地位。

期待扇区旋转。对于战术意识的管理者，管理层的大部分任务都远离噪音并避免微不足道。

Adam Grimes is the managing partner and CIO of Pittsford, New York–based research and asset management firmWaverly Advisors.