Investors Pick Europe’s Best Credit Analysts

1月份European Central Bank announced an aggressive program of quantitative easing— asset purchases of €60 billion ($70 billion) a month, beginning next month and continuing through at least September 2016 — that surpassed the expectations of even the most optimistic market observers.

“ECB’s QE program令人惊讶的市场，尽管在伦敦银行Merrill Lynch的欧洲外汇战略主任Athanasios Vamvakidis，仍然是非常高的期望。“到目前为止，鸽子不得不说服老鹰队的事情足以行动。从现在开始，老鹰队将不得不说服鸽子的东西足以停止或购买。只要通货膨胀仍然很低，欧洲央行将继续购买和购买和购买。“

James Reid, who oversees fixed-income strategy at Deutsche Bank in London, points out that this year and next will see “more global central bank buying of assets than any of the last three years — and one of the largest years on record. This is even without the [U.S. Federal Reserve] contributing.”

投资者欢呼injectin欧洲央行承诺g a minimum of €1.1 trillion into the economy, with European stock prices surging on the news, bond yields falling, credit default swap spreads tightening and the euro plunging to $1.11, its lowest level against the dollar in more than 11 years. But questions remain as to whether the scheme will accomplish its goals of spurring faster economic growth, higher consumer prices and lower unemployment across the region.

Many portfolio managers will look to the sell side for answers once the bond buying begins and the impact of the program becomes clearer, and there’s no shortage of analysts eager to share their insights. The top spot on this year’s All-Europe Fixed-Income Research Team,亚博赞助欧冠’s annual ranking of the region’s most highly regarded credit analysts and strategists, is occupied by two firms: Bank of America Merrill Lynch, which rises from second place, and J.P. Morgan, now in its fifth straight year at No. 1. Each captures 14 positions in the 18-sector survey. Barclays and Deutsche Bank tie for third place, with 11 positions each, while Morgan Stanley and Royal Bank of Scotland share the fifth tier, with five spots apiece. Among these six firms RBS is the only one whose team position totalisn’t down from last year。

The navigation table at right includes links that lead to tables showing firms ranked by total number of positions overall and by their totals in each grouping (Economics & Strategy, High Yield and Investment Grade). Each of these leaders tables includes a companion roster showing how the firms fare when their results are weighted, with a rating of 4 assigned to each first-place position, 3 to each second-place position, and so on.

Click on the Best Analysts of the Year to view the teams in first, second and third places. Also available is a list of teams that earn a runner-up spot in each sector (where applicable). Information about teams in the second and third positions, and runners-up, is available to订阅者只要。

雷德，世卫士驯鹿，世卫组织飞行员在固定收入战略（连续第五年）和高收益策略（第三年竞赛）和投资级战略中的第二个地方（去年陷入困境的第二名）), anticipated most — but not all — of the ECB’s moves. He says he didn’t expect the central bank to keep the program operating even if inflation doesn’t reach its target of roughly 2 percent. “As such, this is more certain and more open-ended, and we may need to eventually move our already-aggressive positive spread forecasts even tighter,” he contends. “However, there are risks in 2015 that could make markets volatile even if the path is tighter credit spreads.”

Hazards include slowing growth in China, political instability in Russia, a credit event related to collapsing oil prices and aggressive action by the Fed, such as raising interest rates too soon or too much, Reid says.

Deutsche Bank Morefore ist是否认为这种QE包会成功？“在增长方面，在短期内[价格]石油在给予周期性提升方面可能更为重要，而持续的俄罗斯问题也可能是一个更大的短期驾驶员 - 在任一方向上，”Reid相信。“然而，货币落在那里，QE的预期和拯救也应该帮助边缘增长和通胀增加几十个百分点。实际上，QE的大部分经济损益都可能限于货币影响。“

In the long term, he adds, the bond-buying scheme could make things worse in the euro zone if the various member countries don’t implement such structural reforms as increased investment activity, improved job creation and higher productivity.

In the meantime, Reid and his associates are stressing to clients that 2015 will be a year of spread compression in corporates and peripherals. “We would buy single-Bs, which, although illiquid, are the cheapest part of the European credit market,” he explains. “This is not a view that is based on optimism on the medium-to-long-term health of the European economy, but purely based on technicals and likely flows.”

Vamvakidis, whose team at BofA Merrill debuted in second place last year in Currency & Foreign Exchange and this year rises to first place, also sees reasons to be cautious. “We have been bearish on the euro against the dollar, but the euro weakened beyond our expectations in the weeks leading up to and following the ECB action,” he acknowledges.

Early in 2014 he and his colleagues predicted that the currency would fall as the region’s economic outlook deteriorated, and the central bank would be forced to intervene. They were right. The ECB — “the only major central bank to avoid QE during the global crisis,” he notes — ignored negative signs in the first half of the year. The currency, which stood at roughly $1.40 in May, began to decline against the dollar (sliding to $1.21 by year-end), and the market began to price in the inevitability of QE.

“Ahead of the most anticipated ECB meeting in recent years, we had argued that the risks for [euro-to-dollar pairs] were balanced but that open-ended QE would be negative for the euro and pointed to downside risks to our projections,” Vamvakidis says. “Following the aggressive ECB action, we marked-to-market our projections, keeping a weakening [euro-to-dollar] path. We are now projecting EUR/USD at $1.10 by the end of 2015 and $1.05 by the end of 2016, a change from $1.20 and $1.15, respectively.”

至于中央银行是否已经做出了正确的举动，他会讲述时间。“欧元区数据可以在今年的第二个和第三季度开始改善，因为欧元疲软，低油价和从美国快速增长的溢出溢出效率开始积极影响经济，”分析师保持。“QE已经过早发挥作用，但这种改善了数据，即使是小，也可以给人留下它已经开始改变的印象。”

更重要的是，该倡议是“必要的，姗姗来迟，”他说。“然而，随着[欧洲央行总统马里奥]德拉基还争辩，QE必须更好地协调财政政策，在核心和周边国家的结构改革方面取得更多进展，有机会工作。”

What’s the best way for investors to play this market? “Our year-ahead trades focus on buying volatility, avoiding crowded positions and investing in some contrarian trades,” Vamvakidis says. “For example, our preferred trade to express a bullish U.S. dollar position has been to sell the Australian dollar, and this trade has already done very well. We like selling the New Zealand dollar against the Japanese yen, as a contrarian trade. We also like buying sterling volatility ahead of the U.K. elections,” which will be held in May.

一个行业一定会受益于定量easing is Banking & Financial Services, according to Jacqueline Ineke, whose Morgan Stanley squad is celebrating its fifth straight year as sector champions.

“We already had a generically bullish view on bank debt into 2015, partly based on the full expectation of a supportive ECB from a monetary policy perspective,” the Zurich-based team leader explains.

在此广泛的观点中，分析师在欧洲欧洲央行作为欧元区银行主管的新作用，分析师的新职责是在11月份承担的责任之中。“在银行损失吸收能力的新规则意味着担心重型第一件发行的恐惧将是侮辱，”她争辩。“虽然我们实际上对今年的第2级发行有低估的估计 - 45亿欧元的毛额 - 我们相信恐惧将导致该部门造成高级和遗产1S，一般而言。因此，我们在去年秋天的两级超重后面从我们的Tier-2超重移开了。“

Ineke和她的队友建议在U.K.银行级次级和高级债务中取得职位，她认为“死亡资产课程”。他们正在销售基于U.K.的银行持有公司的高级债务，而是由于新规则而购买其次级债务，该规则在1月期间生效，管理机构如何处理令人痛苦的金融机构。“新的正常将始终是解决，而不是清算，银行债务应牢记决议行动，”Ineke说。

分析师还建立在意大利和爱尔兰银行债务，特别是在高级和第2层级，但建议在中欧和东欧和俄罗斯暴露在波动率的机构方面取得指导;例如法国的SociétéGénérale和意大利的Unicredit。

2015年全欧洲固定收益研究团队反映了超过740名投资专业人士的观点，在约370个买边机构中，欧洲固定收入资产统计地管理估计6.3万亿美元。