中央银行人士是自2008年级金融危机自2008年级金融危机以来的影响力的唯一经济政策制定者。然而，由于自己，央行缺乏平衡经济管理和宏观监督的工具。他们在货币和财政政策之间悬停在一个灰色区域，但问题是多久？中央银行应该得到我们的同情心，而不是我们的批评，因为他们的独立性慢慢受到损害。
尽管货币政策前所未有，但通胀目标是全球范围的关键宏观主题。它越来越难以模仿，解释和预测经济事件的过程，包括主流头条：低通货膨胀（图1）。看不见原因是不难的。
Chart 1: ECB's Forecasts Increasingly Wide of the Mark
资料来源：欧盟统计局;欧洲央行和欧洲系统员工通货膨胀预测
The globalization of output, trade, technology and financial flows has made economic growth and inflation for individual countries increasingly a function of global trends. As a result, traditional domestic economic relationships, such as the Phillips curve trade-off between inflation and employment, have become less important or less reliable. Some countries, such as the U.K., now have ostensibly tight labor markets that under typical conditions would lead to a call for the abandonment of zero interest rates, and yet there is unusually weak wage and salary formation that would make such a move highly contentious.
此外，在许多发达国家和一些人中，债务突出（见图2）emerging countriesis dead weight on growth and inflation. In many major emerging markets, the slower economic expansion has been primarily noncyclical. Price pressures are wilting under the impact of cumulative demographic trends in many large economies, especially in Europe and Asia. The老龄化人群的影响到目前为止，符合较慢的潜在增长和较低的家庭储蓄率的理论预测，但在实践中，后者被公司和政府拯救的强烈愿望所抵消。
图2：全球债务水平改变经济环境
资料来源：GDP - 国际货币基金组织，世界银行，麦迪逊项目;政府债务 - Abbas等人（2011，IMF），Reinhart＆Rogoff;私营部门债务 - 通过Haver和CeiC，Bis Quarterly系列，Schularick＆Taylor国家当局;外部EM债务 - WB / BIS / IMF联合债务中心;中国 - PBOC，渣打银行
China’s role in global deflation is also of increasing significance as past turbocharged growth gives rise to a hangover of heavily subsidized excess industrial capacity and debt. The deflationary consequences of economic change in China are already evident in an许多原材料供过于求在国内和国外市场销售价格的向下压力（见图3）。
图3：G4通货膨胀的常见因素现在随着中国价格移动
资料来源：彭博，Investec资产管理;G4通货膨胀的常见因素是来自美国，U.K.，法国和德国的％Y-O-y标题CPI的第一个主要成分。
这种全球通货紧缩环境正在破坏现代中央银行的基本前提：即，货币政策可以消除有时挥发性的实际通货膨胀与通胀预期的更稳定行为之间的偏差。国家中央银行也遭遇相互冲突的政策目标。为了追求有针对性的通货膨胀率，他们部署了量化宽松，零利率和旨在提升银行贷款的其他政策。但这些措施正在筹集第二个小提琴，以实施新的国内和国际协调的政策宏观审慎监督，通过该银行需要安替资产负债表。结果包括高银行，但降低了市场流动性和较低的风险保费，但资本市场较低，喂养未来不稳定的担忧。
国家中央银行不在一个令人羡慕的地方，我们仍然期望他们太多了。如果他们不能可靠地量化增长和通货膨胀的前景，并提供有利的结果，他们将失去危险。在所有主要的央行，美联储似乎是符合这些挑战的最接近。这一关键因素可能支持对利率上涨的期望和美国美元在占据金融市场的美国的反弹。但所有中央银行都需要通过裁定有关全球和结构经济力量的辩论，并通过强大地归咎于他们能够现实地实现的限制以及其他公共当局的责任来重新定义知识倡议。
此命令将日益重要的the next economic downturn draws nearer. Some people already anticipate even more aggressive quantitative easing, including what is known as helicopter money. When economist Milton Friedman coined the phrase “helicopter drop” in 1969, he did so in the context of a world in which the private fractional reserve banking system played a much smaller role in driving money creation than it did subsequently. Today we have returned to conditions closer to those that prevailed when Friedman was writing, largely because of the constraints over the supply of and demand for bank credit because of the debt overhang and macroprudential deleveraging. In the next recession — likely within five years — a true helicopter drop may require formal and direct coordination between the monetary and fiscal authorities to ensure that newly created base money makes its way into the economy and the nominal value of income. That will mark the end of central bank independence as we know it.
Mike Hugman是新兴市场固定收入团队的战略家Investec资产管理在伦敦。George Magnus是一名基于伦敦的独立经济学家。
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