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智能金钱仍在培训菲律宾。近5年后奔驰阿基诺主席任职并释放了经济改革的旋风，包括反腐败驱动和增加公共基础设施的支出，希望菲律宾将留在亚洲的崛起之一。
For 2015, Standard Chartered Bank forecasts GDP growth of 6 percent on the back of rising private consumption, a pick up in employment and falling oil prices. That would make the Philippines one of the standout performers in the region after China, which is expected to grow at close to 7 percent. Unemployment, currently at 6 percent, has already dropped by 2 percent since the beginning of 2010. “We expect underemployment, which is prevalent in regions where the agricultural sector dominates, to drop as the economy shifts more towards manufacturing and services,” notes Jeff Ng, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank in Singapore.
Standard Chartered is far from being the only bull on the Philippines.
Clsa的首席股权战略家Christopher Wood认为，菲律宾现在仍然是该地区最好的宏观故事。CLSA的经济学团队预测今年的实际GDP增长率为6.7％，在继续证据私营部门导向的投资周期和出口部门的卓越表现，这继续优于东盟的其余部分。
由于预算管理更好，菲律宾复苏的一个关键因素是该国财政职位的急剧改善。这一直伴随着维修其国内和外债的成本急剧下降。据PK Basu，麦古里证券的东盟经济学家，2014年底的公共债务在30多年后首次下跌低于GDP的50％。与2003年的GDP的90％的高峰相比，“随着过去十年的盈余账户，外部余额已经很强，减少了发布外债的需要，”他说。“我们预计主要全球评级机构将进一步升级今年菲律宾的主权评级和接下来。”
另一个好消息是，来自菲律宾海外工人的汇款，占该国GDP的8％左右，可能会继续符合GDP。德意志银行首席经济学家Michael Spenser的近一半的汇款认为，这对比索的支持来源应通过2015 - 2016年来维持。
Growth in FDI
Increased confidence in the Philippines has been reflected in the rapid increase in foreign direct investment. For the 12 months to November 2014, FDI inflows surged to US$5.8 billion from US$3.7 billion at the end of 2013, up 55 percent year-on-year. “This sharp increase is consistent with our long-held view of increasing investment-led growth, driven by the Aquino administration’s reforms, which have put the economy on a higher growth path and earned it credit rating upgrades,” says Euben Paracuelles, Southeast Asia economist at Nomura in Singapore.
外国直接投资的上升趋势看起来要继续。Despite the recent influx of foreign money, Paracuelles sees room for further inflows as a result of last year’s liberalization of the domestic banking sector, comprehensive plans by the government to support the country’s manufacturing base, and expectations that Congress could potentially approve legislative changes on foreign ownership limits.
One of the most obvious signs of the recent boom is the changing skyline in the capital Manila. New office high-rises are mushrooming as developers scramble to meet demand from global firms who are looking to outsource business processes to the Philippines. Developers added 466,350 square meters of office space last year, according to Colliers International Philippines. A further 510,000 square meters of office space is slated for completion annually in Metro Manila between 2015 and 2018.
Some analysts worry about a looming glut in the property market in Manila, especially if conditions in the world economy continue to deteriorate. Last year, the Central Bank recommended that from late 2016 onwards, banks should be obliged to lower their loan-to-value ratios from 80 percent to 60 percent for mortgages. The central bank has already implemented real estate stress tests and is monitoring shadow-banking activities in the real estate sector. But Wood at CLSA points out that land values in the Makati Central Business District remain in real terms 55 percent below their peak levels in 1997, meaning that the market has yet to reach the speculative heights of previous boom-bust cycles.
属性也不是蓬勃发展的唯一部门。2013年3月，菲律宾将其进入利润丰厚的国际博彩市场，并在马尼拉的娱乐城市娱乐场所的12亿美元的娱乐场和赌场，这是Las Vegas游戏条的较小版本。最近，Melco Crown Entertainment在娱乐城市的梦想赌场娱乐场所落成。尽管澳门的游戏收入急剧放缓，但仍然希望繁荣的菲律宾和富裕的中国赌徒的结合可以推动这个新建立的高轮车市场。
解决基础设施的需求
但是政府仍然面临很多挑战s if it is to set the Philippines back on the path of long term sustainable growth. In a bid to solve the country’s notorious infrastructure bottlenecks, President Aquino last year pledged massive investment in new highways, power grids and airports as part of a Public-Private Partnership program (PPP). But despite the grand promises, progress has been slow. Paracuelles at Nomura is hopeful that the momentum will pick up later in the year. “Prospects for higher public infrastructure spending remain positive, which we expect to help crowd in more private investment spending,” he says. Not everyone is so upbeat. Lack of progress on the PPP Program has led some analysts to predict it may be only a matter of time before Manila’s traffic grinds to a virtual halt.
For their part, most foreign investors still seem willing to give the Philippines the benefit of the doubt. Last year, the stock market rose by nearly 20 percent, making it one of the best performers in the region. Fund managers who put money into Philippine equities when Aquino first took office back in June 2010 have done especially well with returns in excess of 100 percent. Yet the strong performance has meant that the market is now among the most expensive in Asia with a PE ratio of 18.7 compared with 14.9 in Thailand and 10.5 in Korea.
尽管A. Stotz投资研究的首席执行官Andrew Stotz评级相对苛刻，但在菲律宾股权故事中仍然积极。“菲律宾公司的基础仍然非常坚实，”他说。“虽然股市是亚洲最昂贵的，但它得到了增长和相对较低的风险支持。我没有看到任何即将崩溃。“
许多全球投资者的一个更大的问题是当Benigno Aquino在2016年5月在办公室完成六年期限时会发生什么。过去，菲律宾政府的变化一直是惊人的凌乱的事情 - 通常伴随着改革的相当大的回顾。虽然这次陪审团仍然存在，但许多分析师仍然相信，菲律宾从根本上改变，担任总统的人将继续追求促进项目的政策。
Says Basu at Macquarie Securities. “We view the institutional reforms of the past decade and especially the past half-decade as largely irreversible.”
由Ben Davies.