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每日议程:美联储观察者继续赶快等待

欧元区CPI改善;西班牙GDP跳跃;日本银行留在课程;BNP Paribas击败了分析师预测。

联邦开放式市场委员会昨日的政策声明昨天推出了令人惊讶的第一季度GDP数据疲软的脚跟,使投资者留下了美联储紧缩道路的幻想。艾德椅珍妮特·耶尔森和她的同事表示,活动较慢和劳动力市场涨幅是暂停的理由,而总体而言,基本面仍然是增长的声音,以便获得追踪。Widely interpreted by analysts as a move to push the first tightening action back to September, the updated language makes the monthly Department of Labor monthly report next week all the more critical for market sentiment as investors consider how long U.S. central bank leaders would be willing to wait.

U.S. jobless report sign of hope.美国初步失业索赔登记为262,000,这是一个巨大的暴跌,标志着15年的低位,并在下周的报告上投下乐观发光。另外,3月个人消费支出数据显示个人收入和支出下属以下共识预测。

Euro zone CPI comes in flat.经过四次连续排气读数后,欧洲统计局发布的公共货币区的标题消费者价格通胀指数水平,在3月和4月之间保持不变。不包括食品和燃料投入的核心水平在同一年内略微上升。这些数据代表了一个适度的胜利欧洲央行继续追求更高的通胀目标通过一个积极的资产购买计划。另外,该地区的标题失业率在3月份略微上升。

西班牙GDP急剧上升。该标题GDP在西班牙的前三个月攀升0.9%,同比增长2.5%。多次分析师预测,全国总共可达到2015年的增长率超过3%。希腊政府的批评者注意到西班牙自2007年以来达到了最快的增长率,尽管在信贷危机之后落实了困难的紧缩措施,这主要是由于深层结构改革 - 雅典目前拒绝的类型。

Chinese steel demand slumps.According to data from the China Iron and Steel Association released yesterday, total domestic demand for steel declined by 6 percent in the first quarter of 2015, prompting a reduction in output of nearly 2 percent. While this represents the first reported contraction in over a decade, analysts note thatslowing fixed-investment levelshave made a slowdown all but inevitable.

BNP report beats forecasts.BNP Paribas是最大的法国银行资产,今天宣布了第一季度净收入,1950亿欧元(1845亿美元)与2014年同期的14亿欧元,以广泛的保证金击败共识分析师估计。投资银行活动,特别是固定收入交易司的利润,是收益的主要驾驶员,抵消消费者单位的令人失望的回报。

日本银行持有课程。日本央行今天宣布在星期一没有变化etary policy measures, despite increase calls from a minority of political leaders to expand the bank’s asset purchase program. Separately, in its semiannual economic outlook report, the Japanese central bank predicted that, although the 2 percent inflation target can be achieved by fiscal-year 2016, overall consumer price index consumer price index levels for year-end 2015 would reach an annualized pace of 0.8 percent, down from earlier projections of 1 percent.

中国开辟了更多的外国投资。周三国家外汇管理局宣布,11个外国投资基金将获得增加的投资配额,总计约为30亿元(48.4亿美元)。在这些投资者中,授予扩展购买特权是新加坡的sovereign wealth fundandVanguard Group’s Australian fund management arm.

俄罗斯削减了比预期更多。俄罗斯中央银行今天宣布减少了1.5%的基准一周的拍卖率,比预期更具侵略性的行动Elvira Nabiullina那the bank’s governor, grapples with a deteriorating economic situation. The rebound of the ruble, which has gained nearly 20 percent against the dollar year-to-date after losing roughly half its value in 2014, allows the central bank the latitude to ease in response toweak activity and inflation measures spurred by Western sanctions

文件夹Perspective: Thailand-X-Press-Tuuli McCully和Neil Shankar,ScotiaBank

泰国经济缓慢的复苏是泰国乐队决定为经济提供进一步的货币刺激的关键司机。评估并非一致,七个政策制定者中有两名投票赞成,支持保持基准率不变。未经反调委员会成员认为,进一步宽松的政策空间有限,泰国的货币政策立场已经足够适应。此外,他们认为最近的财政刺激应该支持经济的复兴。

Thai monetary authorities assess, however, that the recuperating tourism sector and increasing public investment that reflects the military government’s fiscal measures are not enough to offset subdued export sector performance and weak private consumption. The tourism industry has bounced back from poor performance last year stemming from recent political turmoil. Indeed, tourist arrivals grew by 18.9 percent year-over-year in the first two months of 2015. Meanwhile, the country’s exporters are faced with weaker import demand from China, which is Thailand’s largest export destination, purchasing 12 percent of all shipments abroad. Consumer and business confidence continues to be adversely impacted by uncertainty regarding the timing of the next election, thereby dampening private consumption and investment.

Tuuli McCully和Neil Shankar是国际经济学家苏格兰人in Toronto.

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