For now at least, central bank intervention is running with the bulls. Going into the European Central Bank’s meeting tomorrow,concerns over Greeceappear to have faded almost completely from the investor psyche in light of improving activity measures in core European Union economies and ECB stimulus. Military tensions in eastern乌克兰未能在欧洲的金融市场上施放阴影。在亚洲，央行今天发出了几个惊喜：储备银行印度下调基准回购利率至7.5%the second cut year to date and the People’s Bank of China reduced rates for commercial lenders by 50 basis points.
U.K.收入返回2008年级 - 2008年级金融危机水平。A report issued today from the Institute for Fiscal Studies, an independent research group, indicates that median U.K. household income in 2014- '15 has reached the same level as in 2007- '08，但仍然仍然是2009年高峰的2％- '10.该研究指出，尽管有效的盈利增长疲软，但生活水平的复苏已经缓慢缓慢。
欧洲零售销量大幅上涨。欧元区欧元区零售销售数据今日发布的欧洲统计局同比增长3.7％，明显高于共识预测。这标志着该地区销售的第四次连续增加，以及九年的最大一月增加。
渣打银行拒绝需要资本。Despite reporting full-year earnings that missed analysts’ consensus targets, Standard Chartered today announced that it would leave its shareholder dividend unchanged and had no need to raise additional capital. In a conference call with investors, CEO Peter Sands said that the firm will continue to sell riskier assets and cut costs to improve the firm’s financial footing.
PMI数据在欧洲软化。在阅读53.3的阅读时，Markit发布的最终2月欧元区综合购买经理索引级别比初始估计更柔软，但仍然是一个多月高。在主要个体州，德国在初步估计中看到了制造和服务部门衡量合同，而法国看到边际改善。
rbs修剪投资银行。在上周宣布苏格兰皇家银行皇家银行结构变化之后，媒体报道今天指出，金融机构将从其投资银行部门削减超过14,000个职位，为74％的剔除。银行管理打算重新分组核心消费者和商业群体前进。
U.S. macro data on deck.在美国ADP就业数据中，预计在1月意外放缓后，在私营部门工作创造中展示了反弹。来自供应管理研究所的最终非制造活动数据今天也将发布，期望边缘回调。能源信息管理局石油库存预计本周的数据将表明，尽管在墨西哥湾炼油厂的劳动力纠纷下，馏分储存后，耗材持续低，但耗材持久性仍然很高。今天下午，联邦储备将在区域经济条件下的轶事信息中发布其每月米色书。
投资组合视角：美国市场专注于周五的就业报告-Karl Haeling，Landesbank Baden-Württemberg
Recent market action needs to be seen in the context that in recent years, the four days ahead of each monthly U.S. jobs report have tended to be the only relatively consistently bearish period for Treasuries. This seems to be because the employment data come out early in the month, soon after support from month-end duration extensions leaves the market. Nonfarm payrolls have been strong while the unemployment rate has fallen steadily, fueling bearish expectations.
星期五发布的2月份数据的共识预测看起来并无例外，非农就业人数预计将增加235,000个工作岗位，预计将降至0.1个百分点至5.6％的失业率。周二的大量公司供应肯定增加到本周的看跌压力。
熊仍有几天的熊在星期五的数据之前推出价格，但越来越多地，关键问题涉及在就业报告后如何交易债券。近年来大多数工作报告的强劲价格行动背后的一个因素涉及平均每小时盈利缺乏强劲增长。12月份这个组成部分令人惊讶的是0.2％，在1月份的涨幅强劲0.5％，2月份的共识预测增加了0.2％。
因此，这种结果应该是键合的。另一个至关重要的变量将在最近几周内在U.S.产量的向上轨迹之后购买外国投资者的程度。通常日本购买在3月份之前的财政年度结束前面相对较低。我们预计欧洲央行的定量资产购买计划以及其他因素，以限制国债的低压力。这并不意味着国债不得不在任何具体水平短期内持有，因为美国市场目前是全球最多的贸易之一，鉴于当地较低程度央行干预措施. But global pressures are still oriented toward deflation and disinflation.
Karl Haeling is a vice president of capital markets atLandesbank Baden-Württemberg纽约办事处。