Amid High Valuations, a RIA Revisits Equity Portfolios

After starting his career as a technology stock analyst, Matthew Andrews in September 2009 joined Private Capital Advisors, a New York–based registered investment adviser founded by his family. Andrews, the CIO, oversees all the firm’s allocations, including its long-only equity portfolio and a multistrategy hedge fund. Andrews and his $418 million firm have ridden the recent bull market using an overweight in large-cap U.S. equities. With fourth-quarter 2014 earnings season having come to a close, equity investors are left pondering their allocations for the rest of 2015 amidhigh valuations in U.S. stocks并期待美联储的货币政策紧缩。亚博赞助欧冠recently spoke with Andrews about how he is positioning his portfolios in this investment environment.

亚博赞助欧冠机构投资者：您对2015年余下的股票的期望是什么？

Andrews:投资者不确定性正在推动市场波动。这是德国拓荒，油价，令人担忧的职责中国生长and the pace of Federal Reserve tightening.

Until recently, these were all reliable macro indicators. Now many investors accustomed to crisis points and the subsequent soothing actions of central banks feel they don’t have a good grasp on what’s occurring in front of them. This is a function of the deliberate efforts of policymakers, which obfuscate the true metrics. But this also is a function of the fact that we live in a very global economy, and there are so many variables in play. To synthesize the economy down to one thing is impossible. We remain focused on U.S. equities and are believers in U.S. dollar strength, as, in our view, the relationship between monetary policy and the underlying economy is real in this country. In Europe and Japan, on the other hand, it is inflating the value of financial assets with real-world impact. We are zeroed in on a few key sectors where we see more value in innovation, such as media, health care, technology and industrials. Having said that, we are also believers that the majority of the outsize returns are behind us for this cycle. Our anticipated range for the year is roughly zero to 8 percent.

What are the big macro factors driving stock markets?

在宏观政策前沿，欧洲中央银行的侵略行动承担了对美国的最接近的相似之处。我们已经见过的量化宽松。关于日本到目前为止，货币政策尚未有效地宣布胜利，这在世界其他地方复制美联储成功的能力方面施加了一个影子。

Ultimately, the shift in sentiment in November, December and January was so rapid that it left many to wonder what had just happened. Empty catchphrases such as “buy the dip,” “don’t buck the Fed” and “falling knife” rang hollow and forced a lot of people to focus on what it was they actually owned in their portfolios — and on what companies actually do to generate profits and how they do it. It resembled the first time in roughly three years where bottom-up analysis started to matter. From the bottom [in 2009] right through to the end of 2014, we lived in an environment where all stocks rose and fell together. They were all coming off of cyclical lows and all experienced multiple expansion in step with one another. Today the primary indexes are fairly valued — perhaps richly valued. Each individual sector, industry group and stock will trade subject to its underlying fundamental value to a greater degree.

如何影响您的资产分配决策的高股票估值？

如果您是短期投资者，则波动性的增加足以将您的分配转移到短期债券的原因。然而，如果您是一个长期分配者，您显然会意识到今天市场交易的地方，但您可以在一个合理的回报中仍然可以在五年，十年或15年的情况下获得慰借，如果正确定位。如果您正在进行更长的观点，股票仍然是最好的。然而，对于可预见的未来，投资者需要接受更大的波动性，并专注于持久的商业模式，强大的自由现金流发电，良好的管理，相关产品和美国地理占地面积。

你目前的权重的方法是什么?

Durability of cash flow is what really gets you resilience during cycles of stress. We see good opportunities in health care and some segments of technology and energy. This may surprise some, but we like a few select industrials that bridge with defense and science. I feel that right now you want to be invested in buying into U.S. brands, into companies investing to change the future and into tools that drive productivity. Otherwise, it’s just a trade. We are focused on trying to identify companies that keep innovating and are not a cyclical story. Sometimes this takes the form of a破坏性的创新者, but often it is simply a durable business model that will always exist.

你能引用你持有的职位的一些具体例子吗？

Google is an obvious one. It is a flagship technology company that is constantly investing in the future, whether that turns out to be virtual reality,driverless cars或者连接回家。另一个是药物分销商McKesson公司。这是一个简单的业务：它与生产者谈判大型合同，并将产品重新分配给较小的买家。McKesson的整个特许经营权围绕着规模和物流经济。这是一个商业模式，耐用性和现金流量不如广泛的市场或潜在的经济循环。由于人口统计数据，医疗保健支出可能会在未来几年增长。MCKESSON已经实现了一个竞争对手难以实现的规模。

How do you approach risk management?

我已经学习的是，大小是您的近期风险管理工具，时间是您的长期风险管理工具。很多人喜欢将投资策略和风险管理讨论为独特，分开的东西，但在我看来，他们是一个和一样的东西。

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