Daily Agenda: Big Banks Grapple With Stress Tests

Federal Reserve stress test results, announced yesterday, have put divergence in the banking center at the forefront. Wall Street stalwarts such as Goldman Sachs Group, JP Morgan Chase and Morgan Stanley are cleared going forward to begin returning capital to investors, while the U.S. divisions of Deutsche Bank and Banco Santander were found to be deficient. Given the rising costs of navigating regulation, investors are increasingly focused on how profits may be dampened for the big financial players while smaller banks appear increasingly vulnerable to activist campaigns. Among primary U.S. lenders, Citigroup perhaps had the most improved standing with Fed policymakers, securing approval for an increased dividend andshare buybacks.

Spanish bank to acquire foothold in the U.K.Spanish lender Banco de Sabadell announced today an offer for U.K. bank TSB Group in a deal that would exceed $2.5 billion in value. The proposed transaction would allowLloyds Banking Groupto divest its holding in TSB ahead of the schedule U.K. regulators had stipulated. The deal will position Sabadell as the second major Spanish bank to enter the U.K. mortgage market in recent years following expansion by Banco Santander.

Ukrainebailout.The International Monetary Fund unveiled a $17.5 billion loan package to the Ukrainian government today. Conditions attached to the credit facility include significant structural reforms and reductions in public spending, with the first cash expected to arrive within days to prop up the embattled nation’s coffers.

U.K.贸易逆差缩小。今日国家统计局厅今天发布的国际贸易数据表明，1月份的贸易逆差达到了616亿英镑（9.23亿美元），如low oil costskept import levels lower. Excluding oil, the balance of trade in goods for the month reached the lowest point since 2013.

美国甲板上的经济指标。在美国，每周初步失业索赔和1月份的商业库存数据将于今天发布。同样在宏观议程上是二月的零售销售数据，在1月份购物者出乎意料的下街道出乎意料的下街道后，共识预测为0.5％的月份。

Alibaba invests in Snapchat.昨天的报告表明，中国互联网巨头最近达到了2亿美元的投资Alibaba Group Holdinginto messaging service Snapchat will bring the messaging company’s valuation to $15 billion. The most recent prior round of capital raised by the Silicon Valley upstart had included investments by Yahoo and venture-capital firmKleiner Perkins Caufield＆Byers.

ECB reviews Greek banks.European Central Bank authorities are reviewing the emergency liquidity assistance funding of Greek banks. Most analysts do not anticipate that the ECB will ease its stance before a reform package (and its implementation) is on track. Separately, in televised comments this morningGreek Finance minister Yanis Varoufakiscomplained about ECB refusals to accept Greek debt as collateral, saying the bank “is pursuing a policy that can be considered asphyxiating toward our government.”

Portfolio Perspective: A Lower 2015 Growth Forecast for China—Jian Chang, Barclays

Real activity data in January and February posted big downward surprises in industrial production and fixed-asset investment. Excluding the distortion from Chinese New Year, averaged data for those two months confirmed that downside risks to China’s 2015 growth have started to materialize.

我们修改了2015年GDP增长预测至6.8percent from 7 percent in view of the likely weaker-than-expected growth during the first three months of this year. We maintain our sequential growth path forecast for the rest of the year: with quarter-over-quarter growth picking up to 6.6 percent (seasonally adjusted) during the second quarter and 7.4 percent in the third quarter, assuming more government-led infrastructure investment and improving external demand on the back of a relatively strong U.S. recovery. The property market correction, still a key risk to watch in 2015–’16, is expected to weigh on growth. The plunge in January and February property sales and new construction starts point to continued slowdown in property investment in the coming months.

我们现在预计会加速货币宽松循环，有点松动财政立场。鉴于政府致力于简化当地政府借贷的承诺，我们认为2015年整体财政立场可能接近中立或有点紧缩。然而，我们认为政府还将通过债务互换和到期延期来提供更多对地方政府融资的支持，以及增加社会转移和加速政府主导的基础设施投资。

Jian Chang is the chief china economist atBarclaysin Hong Kong.