如果D·卡麦龙总理的保守党在5月7日的英国大选中赢得一个明确的胜利,那么几年后,英帝国就可能经历一个多世纪前英帝国末日以来最重大的变化:退出欧盟。因此,选举结果比以往更为重要,而且更难预测。
如果他仍然是总理,卡梅伦承诺,在2017年底,他将召开一次全民公投,讨论英国人是否想离开欧盟,在第一次与成员国谈判后,向英国归还各种希望的权力,包括限制移民的权利。欧盟countries. If he doesn’t get what he wants — and most Europe watchers think he won’t, given German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s opposition to immigration curbs — analysts believe chances are high Britain will vote for an exit.
“I think the market is being incredibly complacent about this,” says Tom Elliott, London-based international investment strategist at deVere Group, a Zurich-headquartered financial consulting firm with $10 billion under advisement and management. “If we leave, the EU’s main countries will make it very unpleasant for us.”
Elliott predicts the EU would impose tariffs on goods made in Britain, and that Germany and France would use European legislation to grab international financial business from London. This would hurt the economy and British corporations by hitting investment, he says; businesses in particular want access to European markets.
展望未来,埃利奥特看到欧洲亲苏格兰人在第二次独立公投后脱离英国。苏格兰以微弱优势拒绝独立),威尔士和北爱尔兰也可能紧随其后。他警告说,其结果将是一个与欧洲隔绝的国家,尽管海外工人对经济增长和企业盈利做出了贡献,但欧洲将他们拒之门外。他说:“剩下的将是一个奇怪的肮脏的小国家,不喜欢外国人,也不喜欢现代世界。”。
其他分析师对英国退出欧洲的后果并不十分乐观,但他们相信,如果保守党表现出色,形成强大的政府,金融市场将迅速作出反应。法国安盛投资管理公司(AXA Investment Managers)6230亿欧元(合6590亿美元)驻伦敦高级经济学家戴维·佩奇(David Page)认为,投票一过,英镑就跌至1.40美元的低点,而截至3月初,这一数字约为1.50美元,富时100指数跌幅在5%至10%之间。
但保守党获胜的可能性有多大?
这取决于胜利意味着什么。直到3月初的民意调查显示,在Ed Miliband领导下的工党将占据下议院650个席位中最大的份额。这主要是因为保守党的前景已经被反欧盟独立党所压垮,这使得欧洲议会在去年的英国选举中首次出现了震惊世界的政治局面。
然而,在一些调查中,保守党最近的支持率已经超过工党。选民对家庭收入回升的感激之情可能会进一步帮助他们:总部位于伦敦的财政研究所(Institute for financial Studies)最近宣布,今年的生活水平将最终恢复到2008年至2009年大衰退前的水平。
Still, opinion polls rule out an absolute majority for the Conservatives or any other party. Most pundits expect that whatever party wins the most seats will have to form a coalition government — similar to the current Conservative–Liberal Democrat alliance — or a minority administration. In this case, the biggest party would limp along in a weak government, perhaps with allies but without the majority of seats.
AXA IM的页面指出,即使保守党赢得了最多的席位,由联盟领导或少数党领导的政府的计算结果也可能使该党难以获得议会批准举行欧盟公投。他估计,即使他们是政府的一部分,许多亲欧洲的自由民主党人,可能还有一些反叛的保守派,也会拒绝公投法案。
苏格兰民族主义者也是如此。继去年“不”投票后的支持率回升后,苏格兰国家党的形象得到了提升,他们现在有望赢得苏格兰议会59个席位中的大部分席位,这可能足以让他们对英国不喜欢的任何重大政策都有有效的否决权。
Regardless of which party performs best, the political gridlock that may take hold in Britain after the election worries many investors. “Markets abhor uncertainty,” says Bill O’Neill, head of the U.K. investment office at $2 trillion UBS Wealth Management in London. “The key thing for them is to see a functioning government with a coherent program in place after the normal vicissitudes of building a coalition.”
提出违反直觉,但intriguin页g point of view: A bit of gridlock may not be a bad thing. A weak Conservative-led government wouldn’t be able to put the U.K. on the road out of the EU, he reckons. A weak Labour-led government would find it harder to pass measures harmful to corporate earnings, such as an increase in the minimum wage, which would hit the retail sector.
佩奇说:“在某些方面,无论是保守党还是工党领导的少数党政府,实际上可能是最有利于市场的结果,因为这将防止走向政治极端。”。