石油危机让可再生能源摇摇欲坠

Thedramatic plunge in oil priceshas been a boon for some industries: Witness the recent rise in sales of sport utility vehicles. The renewable energy space hasn’t been so lucky. For example, as of late January the price of the PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy Portfolio, a $130 million exchange-traded fund offered by Chicago-area Invesco PowerShares, had fallen 37 percent from its March 2014 peak.

But the oil crash won’t scuttle the clean energy industry, experts stress. Although some subsectors will likely suffer, they say, others will prove impervious.

尽管如此，最近在可再生能源方面，市场还没有完全察觉到。“投资者可能是一个易受影响的群体，”位于旧金山的咨询公司Kachan&Co.的创始人和执行合伙人Dallas Kachan说。Kachan&Co.为清洁技术行业提供财务分析。“当油价下跌时，可再生能源的光芒就会消失。”

只要问问加利福尼亚州埃默里维尔的Amyris公司的高级副总裁Joel Velasco就知道了。Amyris公司致力于开发以糖为基础的替代品，以替代各种石油产品，包括柴油和喷气燃料、工业润滑油、聚合物、食品和香水的香精和香料以及化妆品润肤剂。当Amyris在2010年上市时，它的战略集中在生物燃料上，但自2012年以来，该公司已经进入了它旗下的其他业务范围。

Velasco说，油价波动和人们对生物燃料的兴趣易变之间的密切联系是这种转变的主要驱动力。不幸的是，在油价回落之际，它与生物燃料的长期联系让它变得脆弱。

“We’ve always been conscious of the ups and downs oil prices would have on [biofuels], and that’s actually why we’ve pursued a very diversified strategy,” Velasco says. “But that doesn’t mean that’s as clear to investors as we would like; I recognize we’re getting penalized by the oil price drops.” Amyris’s stock has dipped from nearly $4.50 last August to $1.80 on January 28.

Biofuels — along with other alternative transportation technologies like electric cars — could be the subsector hit hardest by oil’s fall. “Biofuels potentially bear the biggest impact from declining oil prices,” says Vishal Shah, a New York–based managing director and equity analyst with Deutsche Bank who covers alternative energy. “They need more time to become cost-competitive.”

但可再生能源产业的范围远远超出了生物燃料和其他新兴的石油替代品。根据总部位于巴黎的国际能源署（iea）的数据，2013年，包括太阳能、风能、地热能和水力发电在内的可再生能源占全球发电总量的22%，而2005年这一比例约为18%。

And though many investors sour on the entire alternative energy business when oil prices sink, Shah maintains that regardless of market sentiment, certain segments have remained just as attractive as they were before crude began its descent.

“Solar is less correlated to declining oil prices and is already very cost-competitive, even at these lower oil prices,” he says. The smart grid and energy-efficiency spaces remain unaffected by oil price movements, Shah adds.

助推solar中国的弹性在于其与石油的有限直接竞争。瑞士信贷集团（Credit Suisse Group）清洁技术股票研究分析师帕特里克·乔宾（Patrick Jobin）在1月份的一份报告中指出，在中国、日本和美国等太阳能利用率不断增长的关键市场，石油仅占发电量的1.5%，自2011年以来，美国公共设施规模太阳能发电的安装成本下降了57%。

总部位于纽约的Jobin告诉记者，同样重要的是，政府对太阳能的大力支持有助于使太阳能行业免受油价波动的影响亚博赞助欧冠. In the U.S. and elsewhere this assistance includes tax incentives, feed-in tariffs that offer long-term contracts and attractive pricing for solar and other renewables, and the benefit of renewable portfolio standards. The last requires electric utilities to produce a specific proportion of their power from renewables.

Jobin calculates that if the 29 U.S. states with a renewable portfolio standard already in place use solar power for just half of their clean energy needs, they’ll need to add 79 gigawatts of capacity — nearly 14 times last year’s demand — through 2030. “Simply having commodity prices fall does not change the returns solar projects are receiving,” he says.

投资者’ undiscriminating skittishness about renewables could mean it’s a good time to buy, Jobin reckons. “It’s clear the market has a view that [oil prices and solar company performance] are linked, but I’d say a lot of investors in solar appreciate that there is no genuine correlation,” he says. “And given that most solar stocks are trading below historical valuations, it’s actually an opportunity.”

总部位于旧金山的企业和投资者研究及咨询公司cleantechgroup的研究总监特洛伊•奥尔特（Troy Ault）警告称，2015年，大型石油和天然气公司的风险投资部门的撤资可能会全面抑制可再生能源投资。随着布伦特原油价格从去年6月的114美元跌至1月27日的每桶49美元以下，产油国一直在勒紧裤腰带。

雪佛龙（chevroncorp.）等公司的风险部门传统上投资于可再生能源领域，寻找能够带来战略或财务效益的能源技术。近年来，总部位于休斯顿的雪佛龙科技投资公司（Chevron Technology Ventures）已向总部位于加州奥克兰的太阳能电池板制造商BrightSource Energy和总部位于特拉华州威尔明顿（Wilmington）的恩森公司（Ensyn Corp.）进行了投资，恩森公司利用木材生物质和农残生产可再生化学品和液体燃料。这些投资有助于石油勘探和非常规石油生产；例如，雪佛龙和BrightSource联手建设了世界上最大的太阳能到蒸汽采油示范设施。

“The investment theses that we’re seeing are still very much interested in alternatives and efficiencies — there’s still a lot of appetite to invest there,” Ault notes of the oil majors. “It’s just that the short-term reality is, their margins are getting squeezed, and those investment programs that they had set up might have to be put on hold.”

Looking beyond 2015, investor appetite for renewables will rebound, consultant Kachan predicts. “I would expect that the largest companies and pension funds that are investing vast sums recognize that the fundamental drivers of clean technology still remain,” he says. “The world is needing more and more energy, and that energy is not just going to come from fossil fuels, regardless of what the price of fossil fuels is today.”