Daily Agenda: Forex and the Aftermath of the Swiss Avalanche

今天，全球市场继续与余震抓住Swiss National Bank’s sudden move to abandon an exchange rate cap。昨天宣布宣布，由于瑞士法郎在几小时内兑欧元兑欧元上升了41％，因此许多货币市场球员突破了守卫。美国美国最大的零售货币贸易公司经纪人FXCM今天宣布，在昨天在法郎的急剧举动后，它可能会降低所需的资本水平，使得客户损失迅速地对气球造成的气球。瑞士曝光的投资者的初等问题只是Alpine中央银行人员的下一步举动。作为罗伯特萨维奇，首席执行官和总部位于纽约对冲基金公司CCTRACK解决方案的首席市场战略师，昨天向客户队腾出，“他们的计划失败，因为金钱流动正在推动欧元的SNB储备继续下去。那么他们的计划是什么？如果负税率和货币楼层不起作用，以防止通货紧缩，那么更负的价格和更强大的瑞士法郎会做的？“一种可能性是，银行将重新聚焦努力通过购买来稳定法郎美元反而。在任何情况下，对欧元的近期影响是深刻的，并达成共识期望欧洲央行的定量宽松那there appears no relief in sight for the 19-nation common currency.

Greek banks seek help.希腊银行欧洲欧元县和阿尔法银行通过希腊银行采取了资本输液，紧急流动性援助设施。民族存款流出已经升起了议会选举造成遗产的议会选举措施，左侧锡兰党领导民意调查，提高了脱离欧元的可能性。

U.S. financial institutions announce earnings.Fourth-quarter announcements continue among primary financials this morning. Goldman Sachs posted a 7 percent drop in profits for the final quarter of 2014, driven by a decline in trading revenues in fixed income and commodities. Despite the setback, the results exceeded consensus expectations, with earnings of $4.38 per share. Pittsburgh–based PNC Financial fourth-quarter earnings topped analysts’ estimates at $1.84 per share but this still represented a decline in both revenues and profits, as persistent low rates ate into core interest income.

欧洲的通货膨胀仍然较低。Consumer inflation data released in Europe today confirmed that price growth in the euro zone remains depressed, adding fuel to the fire for ECB action in the upcoming meeting. The euro zone aggregate consumer price index (CPI) registered softer-than-consensus forecasts at 0.7 percent, versus the same month in the prior year while German-specific levels were flat versus November.

Key economic data releases on deck in the U.S.对经济发布在一个忙碌的一天,12月CPIwill be announced in the U.S. today. Lowered fuel costs are expected to continue to weigh on the headline index. Société Générale analysts wrote in a note to clients this morning, “Widespread declines in retail energy prices, combined with an anticipated deceleration in core commodities and services costs, probably left the CPI 0.4 percent month-over-month lower — the largest decline since December 2008.” Separately, industrial production for December is forecast to pull back slightly after a surge in November. Also on the schedule are initial January University of Michigan consumer sentiment data and November TIC flows from the Treasury Department.

投资组合视角：震惊和敬畏-Adrian Miller，GMP证券

在投资者越来越厌倦了使能源市场占据了资产价格的主导地位，瑞士国家银行无可否认地就令人行为的政策公告所知。SNB将插头拉到其瑞士法郎1.200上限以防止欧元，由此产生的金融市场冲击波立即和严重。由于盖帽直接与欧元联系起来，我们在昨天的会议剩余时间内击败和交易之前，我们将两种货币陨石坑之间的汇率视为0.8517的会议0.8517。再次加强到美国关闭后，瑞士法郎关闭了20％，与欧元达到平价，这是一个历史悠久的，低于2011年8月10日之前的1.0300的历史低点。

值得注意的是，在美国股票中没有意识到欧洲股份的初始退出，在美国股票中没有意识到，在欧洲股市，负面领土的交流。

具有讽刺意味的是，SNB最终需要干预外汇市场，寻求限制法国的激增，因为瑞士经济肯定会遭受SNB的决定。大约50％的瑞士出口指向欧元区，人们可以想象对近期增长的影响 - 由于倒塌的石油市场而言，没有任何通货紧缩阅读。鉴于SNB的举动来到欧洲央行的政策会议之前，市场解释了这一举措的时间，即SNB总统托马斯乔丹有洞察欧洲央行在店内储存市场。

阿德里安米勒是固定收入战略总监GMP证券in New York.