上涨的商品超级克服了2000年代的价格。归功于全球增长缓慢中国需求放缓那base metals have limped to the finish in 2014. Though betting on base metals is no longer as simple as following China’s growth story, even at a slower pace the country remains the biggest consumer of these commodities, and a slowdown there, especially in construction, may mean a global metals glut.
“中国拥有一个具有大规模的过度建设的国有经济，我们现在支付价格，”Rick de Los Reyes，Rick de Los Reyes，Rice-and挖掘的投资组合经理，基于巴尔的摩。“对固定资产的投资在中国的峰值上涨，因此金属也是如此。”
中国试图提高消费者支出，减少对国家对基础设施和施工的依赖依赖，仍然是正在进行的工作。根据国际货币基金组织最近的世界经济前景发表在10月,中国有望增长by 7.4 percent in 2014 and 7.1 percent in 2015, down from 7.7 percent in both 2012 and 2013. “China’s growth story is no longer going to be the same engine it has been for the last decade,” says蒂玛·丁当，纽约美林银行的矿业和金属分析师Merrill Lynch。中国经济的主要近期风险是房地产价值下降，物业在大市场上高估，并以较小的市场过卖。
相比之下，2014年全球增长预计2014年由国际货币基金组织的3.3％，于7月份从预期的3.4％的速度下调。它看到高级经济体仍然来自全球金融危机的遗产，并导致新兴市场遭受痛苦。国际货币基金组织2015年的预测增长3.8％，下降了7月份的4％。“贱金属在我们看来恢复为全球而不是中国增长的贸易，所以只有在美国银行Merrill的研究中，只有当中国和世界两国循环强劲时，许多开采的商品都只能反弹Lynch’s global commodities research team.
中国的放缓意味着对建筑物的商品的盈利供应以及2015年及以后的较低价格。铁矿石于11月达到五年，冶金煤炭价格以钢材造成钢铁，九月跌至六年低位。一起，这两个人被称为散装商品。预计这两年都预计将在未来几年中盈余，因为中国需求导致了不再需要的新生产投资。据Goldman Sachs Group Research称，2014年铁矿石射击约为6000万吨，并将在2015年扩大到1.1亿吨。De Los Reyes的说法，图片对于其他金属来说是更明亮的。“基础金属可以做得更好，因为生产中断的可能性更高，”他说。
该组始于铜和镍。后者在伦敦金属交换中是2014年最佳的金属，攀登13％，谢谢印度尼西亚的决定in January to ban exports of raw ores to stimulate investment in domestic processing facilities. Chinese buyers bought more nickel from mines in the Philippines instead, and that led to nickel prices spiking in September after a plan in that country to implement an export ban. Prices fell in the fourth quarter, though, after a legislator said that implementing the proposed ban would take seven years. For 2015, supply concerns are based on questions about how fast new smelters can be completed in Indonesia to provide refined nickel for export, and the extent to which production from the Philippines can bridge the gap. One concern, according to research from French investment bank Natixis, is that imports will fall during the rainy season.
赞比亚宣布提高矿山和采矿业务的计划后，铜市场面临着关键供应中断，从1月1日开始，加拿大的巴里基金公司已宣布在12月18日宣布其Lumwana矿山的行动。铜不太可能发布大收益，但它可能相对于铁矿石和煤炭可能更好，因为它在中国以广泛的方式使用。“建造有很多铜，但它也有其他应用，如消费电子产品或建立电网，”De Los Reyes说。世界上最大的矿业公司BHP Billiton通过市场资本化表示，12月初表示，它将在对中国需求的反应时将其投资投资的重点切换到铁矿石。
Another important factor for copper is China’s State Reserve Bureau, which maintains a strategic stockpile of the metal and in 2014 bought between 700,000 and 1 million metric tons, according to Natixis. Domestic copper-refining capacity is on the rise, however, and a risk to copper prices is a Chinese decision maintaining that a strategic reserve isn’t necessary. “Were it to maintain its strategic purchases, the market may remain close to scarcity,” according to Natixis’s analysis.