Oil prices, having fallen dramatically from their June 2014 peak and given OPEC’s decision to maintain its production quota at 30 million barrels per day, should be a boon for global growth and several emerging markets. Driving greater differentiation in fundamentals — and thus promoting further dispersion in monetary policy and currency movements — the decline in oil prices presents a number of opportunities for active fund managers.
油价下跌有效地将财富从生产者转移到消费者。鉴于其石油密集型经济，特别是在美国的福利。此外，税收占AT-泵成本的小百分比，所以美国最终用户应该受益于大量燃料成本降低。较低的价格对于欧洲增长也将是积极的，尽管由于该地区对燃料较低的影响可能不那么明显。较低的通胀轨迹还应鼓励美联储董事会保持利率更长，最后推动欧洲央行进入全面的量化宽松。
当受人口加权时，新兴市场是能源的净进口商。因此，较低油价对新兴市场的总体影响应降低通货膨胀，改善外部和财政账户动态及更高的增长。
Emerging-markets countries’ consumer price baskets tend to have a larger weighting of food and energy compared with those of developed markets. This factor increases the disinflationary effect of declining oil prices, particularly in conjunction with falling agricultural prices. The disinflationary impact will affect oil importers and exporters alike but with a greater impact on the former, largely because of positive currency dynamics. The individual country effect will depend on oil’s weight in each country’s price index, but it should help bring inflation back toward central bank targets in several countries, including India and南非。
对于净石油进口商而言，油价下跌应导致改善当前账户职位。他们还应该通过增加消费者的可支配收入来证明支持新兴市场的扩张。此外，如果较低的石油价格促进发达市场的增长 - 在中国 - 这应该对新兴市场的增长产生敲门作用。制造出口导向的经济，如太平洋轮辋和中欧和东欧最有可能从这种趋势中受益。
The general themes of disinflationary momentum and moderating current-account deficits, as well as perhaps more persistently accommodative monetary policy in developed markets, should also allow新兴市场中央银行松动货币政策。另一个重要含义是用于预算职位。许多新兴市场政府有燃料补贴计划，适用于政治上神圣。油价走低应有助于创造空间，新当选的（和连任）的国家的领导人，如巴西那India and Indonesia to tackle inefficient fuel subsidies,allowing for more efficient spending in infrastructure and/or rebalancing toward more sustainable government finances. Indeed, we have already seen subsidy cuts in India, Indonesia and Malaysia. Additionally, the fall in oil prices allows governments to raise taxes.
印度提供了一个有趣的案例研究。首先,阿il comprises about a third of the country’s import bill, so the decline in prices should be positive for the country’s trade deficit. Second, persistent commodities inflation has played a significant role in driving inflation above the central bank’s target. Falling oil prices are helping to give the Reserve Bank of India room to cut rates to boost growth. We should see a loosening of monetary policy of perhaps 50 basis points in the first half of 2015. Third and finally, on the fiscal side, India spends $23 billion a year on fuel subsidies.Prime Minister Narendra Modihas axed diesel subsidies and raised overall fuel taxes in the past couple of months, which will help the government meet its 4.1 percent budget deficit target for the fiscal year ending March 31. And if oil prices remain low for longer, that should help foster India’s industrialization.
The picture for oil exporters is gloomier. There are a number of emerging markets in which oil is a crucial component of exports and government revenue. Those most exposed areRussia那哥伦比亚那尼日利亚那委内瑞拉和马来西亚。许多这些国家当局都有计划预算和货币政策，过于乐观的价格假设。较低的油价也应该对其当前账户进行压力。值得注意的是哥伦比亚and Mexico have current-account deficits那whereas Russia has a small and falling surplus. Unfavorable current-account dynamics will generally be a headwind for these countries’ currencies, which in turn can force central banks to raise interest rates. We have seen this in both Russia and Nigeria.
On the fiscal side, the shortfall in government revenues from a decline in oil revenue can lead to deteriorating budgetary positions. This may force governments to raise tax revenues, squeezing disposable income and further hurting growth prospects. The deterioration in budgetary outlook in turn affects solvency. We have seen collateral debt spreads hit multiyear highs for Russia and Venezuela. Outside of government, financial defaults will become more likely. The collapse in oil prices may also lead to an uptick in political unrest, with Venezuela particularly at risk. On a more positive if somewhat speculative note, the oil bear market should support much-needed reforms in some emerging-markets countries that have become overly dependent on their energy sectors.
点在哥伦比亚的某种情况下，石油占该国出口的50％，占政府收入的20％以上。因此，全国财政和外部账户都存在重大风险。哥伦比亚于2014年发布了强劲增长，但随着石油收入下跌，对当前账户和政府财政的压力，今年应该减缓经济扩张。石油收入一直在下降，而不仅仅是因为价格较低，而且因为生产的下降。要插上收入缺口，哥伦比亚已经提起税收改革，在未来四年内筹集额外的245亿美元。政府还可以利用其25亿美元的储蓄和稳定基金来帮助区域预算。
彼得·埃德曼是新兴市场固定收入团队的共同主管Investec资产管理在伦敦。
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