每日议程：美国牛市显示出疲惫的迹象

由于2015年第一季度收益季节视为观点，有些迹象表明，许多投资者已经得出结论，美国股票的多年牛市可能会达到其结束。根据财务数据公司事实集收集的数据，集团的标准普尔500指数的年度盈利估计数跌幅超过8％。共识预测也显示出一季度盈利的下降超过4％，所有部门的预期缺少。这代表了自2009年第一季度以来的最大向下修订。估值留在历史基础上和影响特定部门的宏观因素 - 特别是杠杆化能细分，这已被野蛮化collapsing oil prices in recent quarters— there is a palpable atmosphere of lessened expectations. One bright spot for the remaining bulls is the increasedpace of buybacksand mergers as corporate coffers remain high and rates — for now, anyway — remain low.

Atlanta Fed targets flat GDP for the first quarter.在a report issued yesterday, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta projected 0 percent GDP growth for the U.S. in the first quarter, in part because of harsher-than-normal winter weather in parts of the country. The bank’s GDPNow model was updated following the U.S. Census Bureau’s release of weaker-than-forecast construction spending data was released.

Google在欧盟的瞄准器。今天发表的报告预测，欧洲联盟对搜索引擎带来了多亿美元的反托拉斯诉讼Googlein the culmination of a politically charged, highly public investigation. Late last year, the European Parliament passed a nonbinding resolution targeted at Google to force a breakup of its search engine business from other divisions. Critics of the investigations have accused the EU of protectionist motivations.

GoDaddy IPO soars.在每股20美元的价格上，在优惠范围的高端，Godaddy在其亮点作为上市公司的亮点上升了31％。这位18岁的互联网域名注册商和网络托管公司从未发布过年度利润，现在载有超过60亿美元的市场资本化。

欧洲央行为希腊银行提供缓冲区。在a move that may partially assuage depositors concerned about implications of theongoing battle between Athens and Brussels, the European Central Bank today raised the emergency funding available to Greek banks by €700 million ($757.9 million) each. Funding for Greek banks has been difficult once the ECB stopped accepting Greek treasury debt as collateral, forcing reliance on more expensive emergency facilities to maintain liquidity.

U.S. unemployment claims show unexpected decline.First-time claims for state unemployment benefits for the week ending March 28 dropped 20,000 to a seasonally adjusted 268,000, bettering economists' consensus forecast of 285,000.The four-week moving average of claims also dropped this past week, from 14,750 to 285,500. The improving labor market is another sign that Federal Reserve rate normalization may be on the cards later this year.

投资组合视角：不经济的不确定性就是更多的—Aron Gampel, Scotiabank

The recent sluggish economic performance around the globe is a reflection of the pervasive drag of long-standing structural problems. Uncertainty over oil prices is a major source of volatility and economic underperformance in many oil-exporting nations. Similarly, reforms underway in some developing countries may take longer to yield fruit, given the overall recent strength of the U.S. dollar. With limited maneuvering room for fiscal initiatives, there is the potential for furthercentral bank率削减，尤其是通胀压力仍在展开，企业盈利势头放缓，而且增长强劲尚未实现。政策制定者必须保持警惕，以便在名义增长中进一步削弱，使私人和公共部门的债务负担加剧。货币官员in.中国and Canada, for example, have indicated that policy rates could be reduced another notch on top of recent cuts in the event that disinflationary trends persist if domestic economic conditions fail to rebound. The European Central Bank is ramping up its quantitative easing program.

在this environment, most currencies around the world are likely to trend lower vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar. The Fed has suggested to expect rate normalization this year, as improving U.S. economic conditions tighten capacity and lift inflation prospects. It has indicated that the rate trajectory will probably be slower and lower than in prior cycles. Even a modest tightening by the Fed will reinforce expectations of a stronger greenback.

Aron Gampel是斯科舍省资本副总裁兼副主席经济学家，其中一部分加拿大丰业银行, in Toronto.