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尼日利亚的大选延误提高了政治风险和猛烈的奈拉

乔纳森·罗格尔斯市场搬迁,但如果结果被认为是公平的,近距离的比赛可能会有一线希望 - 并被双方接受。

投资者不喜欢政治不确定性。因此,当尼日利亚政府于2月7日宣布六周延迟到该国大选赛前,在它发生前一周,投资者用脚投票,股票,债券和奈拉翻滚价格。

The last-minute postponement has raised fresh concerns about political stability in Africa’s largest economy and underscored the high stakes involved when voters finally do go to the polls, on March 28. Six months ago most investors were betting that President Goodluck Jonathan would win reelection comfortably, but allegations of corruption and the government’s apparent inability to contain the bloody Islamist insurgency of Boko Haram have tightened the race. The stated reason for the delay was to allow the military to subdue Boko Haram, but many observers believe Jonathan ordered the delay to blunt the rise of his rival, Muhammadu Buhari. His All Progressives Congress was formed in 2013 by a merger of small parties opposed to the rule of Jonathan and his Peoples Democratic Party.

大多数观察家都呼吁比赛是一个死热量,使这个国家的第一次选举在这个国家的历史中,这两个领先的候选人都有真正的获胜机会。如果双方接受了结果,选举可以标志着民主统治的一个重大进步,即尼日利亚统治者首次理解他们被人民雇用,以及人民所雇用的,俾斯麦·财经衍生物有限公司that if they don’t perform they could be voted out,” he says.

虽然尼日利亚政治的种族遗传巨大,但鉴于穆斯林北部和主要的基督徒南方之间的鸿沟,赛事已经看到一些跨宗派的行动。Buhari是一个北部人,但是从乔纳森的东南地区挑选了罗马·安乐队,包括河流州州州州州州州州州州州州的罗梅·阿布索,他们在2013年底夺走了该国36名州长森林党的森林赛中。

Two-party politics promises to boost accountability by making it harder for the government to bury bad news. The opposition is demanding full disclosure of an outside audit of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corp., the state energy company. In February 2014 then-governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Lamido Sanusi, accused the company of defrauding the government of some $20 billion in oil revenue. Two weeks later Jonathan suspended Sanusi for the rest of his term.

Godwin Emefiele,新任央行行长widely seen as less independent than his predecessor. The central bank has burned through more than $7 billion in reserves since September in a bid to defend the currency, reducing those reserves to $32.4 billion on February 18. The naira fell nearly 17 percent during that period, to roughly 199 to the dollar on February 19, but many analysts believe it should fall further because of the石油价格崩溃,它产生了90%的出口收入和70%的政府收入。

中央银行还调整了其规则,使外国投资者更加努力地销售其Naira计价的资产。“你曾经能够迅速赚到你的钱,你等一两天,”撒哈拉非洲经济学家伊泰阿布斯说,在伦敦美国银行的经济学家。“现在它需要一周或许更多。”

1月份,JPMORGAN CHASE&Co.表示正在考虑因流动性下降而从债券指标中删除尼日利亚债券。下一个月标准贸易公司表示,由于政治风险和较低的油价,它审查了该国的BB信用评级。2023年政府的基准美元债券于2月16日的收益率为7.4%,比肯尼亚的2024年债券高出1.1个百分点,携带较低,B +评级。

好消息尼日利亚是公共债务仅占GDP的12%,Anubi预测本财政年度为3.6%的3.6%的适度赤字。成功的选举可能允许这些基本面引诱投资者。

“自尼日利亚不太可能在洛杉矶洛杉矶集团的新兴 - 市场分析师分析师Brett Rowley表示,”美元计价的债务在这些水平上开始看起来很有趣。“•