The 2015 All-Europe Research Team: Property, No. 2: Timothy Leckie & team

Timothy Leckie & team

J.P. Morgan Cazenove

First-place appearances: 6

Total appearances: 13

Team debut: 2001

Although J.P. Morgan Cazenove’s squad slips to second place after five years at the top of this roster, the analysts continue to win client praise for their consistent coverage. In particular, they provide “an excellent summary of the key news items, as well as good insights on market pricing,” says one fund manager who emphasizes that “their daily e-mail is a must read.” The London-based group of four has been helmed by newcomerTimothy Leckiesince former captain Harm Meijer left the firm to join specialized management fund NexStep Investors in Luxembourg. Of the 47 regional property stocks in their portfolio, longtime favorite Land Securities Group remains preferred. The real estate investment trust is Britain’s largest commercial property operator and “provides upside exposure to a sustained low-interest-rate environment and an outperforming U.K. economy, with a defensive balance sheet and high-visibility revenue,” says Leckie. Also appealing is the company’s “development exposure to the London office market,” he adds, “with 1.5 million square feet of available commercial space being delivered over the supply-scarce 2015–’16 period.” At 1,350p, the team’s target price for Land Securities’ stock implies a 6 percent upside to its value at the end of last month. Regarding the sector overall, the researchers believe that the medium-term challenge will be to determine when to begin “to price in the current low-interest-rate and bond-yield environment, while being cognizant of the property cycle and the risk of paying up for future capital growth today, which could expose investors to negative economic or interest rate shocks,” Leckie advises. In addition to the London office development space, they favor companies with exposure to high-yielding sectors — such as industrial and quality secondary retail, and logistics — “that provide some protection against any rise in future debt costs, while still benefiting from economic growth in the U.K.,” he notes. Leckie earned dual degrees — a bachelor of commerce degree in finance and a bachelor of arts degree in economics and Mandarin Chinese — from Australia’s University of Queensland in Brisbane. He took a job at J.P. Morgan in 2002, covering property companies out of the firm’s Sydney office before moving to London two years later to report on European property equities. In 2008, Leckie transferred to the specialist sales department then spent a couple years trading futures at U.K. brokerage Marex Financial. He returned to J.P. Morgan in 2012 and become head of the firm’s European property equity research team last year.