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占上风,美联储必须证明纳瓦萨罗的贸易意图

据称的Flash崩溃交易员在4月21日被逮捕的情况下,检察机关可能会侧重于被告的意图。

所谓的是什么闪存崩溃Trader Navinder(Nav)Singh Sarao打算当他在挥发性交易日中放置数千美元的订单购买或销售标准普索商品交易所的标准普尔(S&P 500期货合约)或e-minis?36岁的伦敦居民是否打算创造人造价?他是否打算在执行之前取消他的交易?他打算欺骗吗?那些是检察官必须回答的问题是否希望判定萨鲁犯罪。

“The case will be completely about his intent, and I think many people are interested to see if the government can prove what was in the mind of Mr. Sarao,” says Clifford Histed, partner at K&L Gates in Chicago and former supervisory federal prosecutor and supervisory enforcement lawyer at theCommodity Futures Trading Commission(CFTC)。

Sarao became an instant media sensation April 21 when he was arrested in London by Scotland Yard. He then appeared in court in London and, if the U.S. Department of Justice is to have its way, is to be extradited to the U.S. on criminal violations of the Commodity Exchange Act. The charges include commodity fraud, market manipulation, attempted market manipulation, wire fraud and spoofing (placing orders on an exchange with the intention of cancelling them before they are executed). Spoofing was defined and made a statutory violation in the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2010. He is charged in both刑事civilcomplaints with placing multiple large orders on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange to give a false impression of market depth in S&P 500 E-minis. The Feds argue he used off-the-shelf futures trading software to layer, or place multiple orders for, hundreds of contracts at prices three or four ticks away from the market price at the time. Those orders tricked other traders into believing there was genuine demand, prompting them to execute trades that moved the price artificially higher or lower, according to authorities. The layering program modified orders constantly, keeping offers three or four ticks away from the market price to prevent trade execution. Further charges allege that Sarao modified the trading software to automatically cancel orders if prices moved so fast it risked a trade execution.

Sarao also placed large individual spoofing orders and instantly cancelled them. Both the layering and spoofing orders were cancelled 99 percent of the time on the ten days cited in the complaints. “If it were a one-day event, he could say it was a computer error. But it was hundreds of days. So I think [the Feds] have a very good case against him,” says Joseph Saluzzi, co-founder and co-head of equity trading at Themis Trading in Chatham, New Jersey.

虽然据称操纵市场的E-MiniS市场,但萨罗也在其活动中搬到和销售其他购买和销售他的活动所产生的。联邦当局收取的,这些交易于800天在800天内执行,净利润为4000万美元。在投诉中引用的十个交易日,他在净利润中平均每天53万美元。

Sarao may have squirreled away some or all of his $40 million in profits in various offshore jurisdictions, from the Caribbean to Switzerland to the Middle East, according to court documents.

值得注意的是,政府不必证明的一件事是据Stuleded的说法与2010年5月6日的闪存崩溃的联系。This is the case in spite of the fact that Aitan Goelman, CFTC director of enforcement, has claimed the agency intends to show — he didn’t say prove — that Sarao “contributed significantly” to an imbalance in orders that set up the markets for the flash crash.

Notwithstanding the difficulty of proving intent, a number of market watchers expect the government to prevail. “The point is that he was so excessive in his order modification behavior that, even though he was not really a high frequency trader, he was responsible for as much of half the order modifications,” says Haim Bodek, managing principal of Stamford, Connecticut, trading firm Decimus Capital Markets and professed high frequency trading whistle-blower.

然而,尽管已经提出的所有红旗,但是,仅据此交易数据不会有足够的证据来定罪。Manoj Narang., founder and former CEO of Tradeworx, a financial technology company in Red Bank, New Jersey. He points out that the layered orders from Sarao were visible on the central order book for fairly long periods of time. “Regardless of whether he intended to cancel or not, if I wanted to place an order against those offers in the layering strategy, there is absolutely nothing he could do to stop me in time,” says Narang. The accused trader certainly agrees, having claimed in a May 2014 e-mail to U.K. independent regulatory bodyFinancial Conduct Authority,“我的订单有100%的风险,100%的时间。”纳朗德认为u.k.Trader在指控单一欺骗订单的收费中更脆弱。

There are legitimate reasons for placing large orders away from the market, says Narang. For example, a trader might want to be the liquidity provider of last resort for large block trades. Prosecutors will need to look at the source code programmed into the trader’s software and get a good handle on how the algorithm operated to prove the trader’s intent. “I assume they have looked at his source code and found that clearly there was no intent to trade under any circumstance,” says Narang.

萨鲁案只有第二次政府在期货市场中带来刑事欺骗费用。第一个是2013年对阵迈克尔科斯蒂亚及其公司,豹子能源交易,新泽西红银行。Coscia在美国和U.K.监管机构中缴纳了450万美元的公民案件,并尚未在刑事案件中审判。萨劳案件的结果可能是后果,特别是如果它审判。据Satised称,失败将导致CFTC的执法和监测协议发生。相反,他说,“成功可能导致相同品种的更多费用。”

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