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利率接近零,黄金显示其弹性

黄金金属的价格在很大程度上取决于投资者情绪 - 在一个单词的一个以上。

来自金融的角度来说,黄金的传统智慧是它与美国美元的反向关系。当重绿加强时,由于全球投资者飞往投资安全性,黄金的价格通常会下降。然而,在美元最近的力量爆发期间,黄金仍然有弹性。

“黄金这几天就像你的最高质量的债券,如财政部,”诺科拉斯约翰逊,副总裁尼古拉斯约翰逊和加利福尼亚州纽波特海滩总部的商品专注于太平洋投资管理有限公司。“这是一个与嵌入式保护的30年的纽带,对通胀率非常敏感。”

事实上,这种正常均衡中断的主要原因是来自中央银行的零利率政策。对利率的恐惧 - 以及扩展,通货膨胀 - 令人沮丧的黄金。当债券收益率上升时,持有黄金的理由较少,因为挡住金属的机会成本也是如此。有效地,当谈到黄金时,投资者情绪不仅仅是对等式的因素,它是一个拇指在规模上。

在面值,黄金似乎只不过是超额外的占位符。

Its price has held steady since the end of the recession in the U.S.: The price of an ounce of gold has not dropped below the $1,000 mark since September 8, 2009. Since the start of 2015, roughly the time frame for the dollar’s rise against the euro, gold has ranged between $1,149 and $1,302 an ounce, compared with the roughly $420 it fetched in May 2005, when the economy was on an upswing.

As PIMCO’s Johnson pointed out in a January note, the price of gold actually had begun to fall during the second half of 2008 as real yields started to rise. When adjusting for real yield, the price of gold now is effectively at levels seen before the 2008–’09 financial crisis, despite the nominal, actual price having gone up by 50 percent since then. “This suggests that any premium in gold prices following the credit crisis relating to investor risk aversion has now been removed,” Johnson wrote.

当然,世界上最大的黄金消费国outside ZIRP, or zero-interest-rate policy, economies. Most U.S. and European exposure to gold is in exchange-traded funds, which have seen outflows in recent quarters. The world’s two largest consumers are India and China, countries in which gold remains a traditional store of family wealth. In March Chinese gold imports from Hong Kong hit a seven-year low, according to data from the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department released April 28. As for印度那sellers are banking on jewelry to keep up gold consumption, which dropped 14 percent last year, to 847.7 metric tons from 974.8 metric tons in 2013, according to numbers from the World Gold Council, although sales doubled during peak demand periods.

新兴市场的需求也在下降。一方面,黄金并不完全便宜,特别是对于使用新兴市场货币的买家试图抢夺一些美国计价商品。

可穿戴金 - 往往充满难以评价的感情的投资 - 至少是暂时的趋势。印度的人口去年以来买了自1995年以来的最具金色珠宝。这大部分都是文化。“对于印度人一般来说,黄金和房地产是一个非常传统的投资,”波士顿萨默斯斯·锡斯·锡森省乐园的副总裁副总裁哈里桑那州副总裁Harish Sundaresh表示。从希腊对中国来说,黄金是传统的,如果不是唯一可接受的,结婚礼物。在印度与会者和众福的祝福和祝福的新娘用这么多的金手镯和金币,她经常从1980年代的电视明星先生的接待处出现,这是新夫妇将使用黄金作为巢蛋,在主要购买或金融粗糙补丁中兑现时兑现。

文化转变也开始在边缘生效。

As part of the structural economic and financial reforms instituted under the administration of India’s prime minister,Narendra Modi.,有努力减少金牌作为主要储蓄车辆的使用。这项举措的一部分是建立储蓄和支票的访问印度社会的农村和贫困区。Sundaresh说,寻找最终将资本市场最终成于印度的投资期权。“这种变化会慢慢发生在几代人,介意你,但在未来20年内,城市化和对资本主义的举动会激发班次。”目前,他指出,没有个人退休账户,养老金或安全网的概念 - 超越家庭金。

Follow Anne Szustek on Twitter at@the59thStBridge

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