No matter where you look in the capital markets, it’s getting harder to find returns. But don’t despair. By taking a fresh look at high-conviction strategies, we believe investors can discover more effective active routes within equity allocations to reach diverse destinations.
信念不仅仅是一个肆无忌惮的信心的行为。它是关于在市场上具有明确定义的角度的主动股票采摘方法应用知识，判断和经验。我们的研究表明，如果您了解真正的定罪以及它是如何工作的，那么这些策略可能非常富有成效。
The outlook for returns is sobering. From stocks to bonds toreal assets那our forecasts indicate that returns are likely to be below average for all major asset classes over the next decade (see Chart 1). In this environment, beating the market by even a small margin of 1 percent a year can make a big difference.
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然而，许多投资者都少得多。他们不断涌向被动投资而不是试图增加回报。多样化的投资组合，众多活跃经理的生命线已在很大程度上被遗弃。
This shift, of course, reflects genuine concerns about the costs and efficacy of active management. Market innovations have allowed investors to purchase two components of equity returns — broad market exposure and factor exposure — fairly cheaply.
但是，在一个低回报的世界中可能有机会成本。在潜在的市场环境中，高信念战略在股权分配中发挥重要作用，以实现上面的基准回报。通过重新思考如何选择和部署各种类型的高信念策略，我们相信，投资者可以发现更好的方法来使他们的股票投资组合更加努力。更重要的是，识别展示持续信念的策略可以帮助投资者向成功的管理人员指导。
What does conviction really mean? Our definition of high conviction has several layers. First, a portfolio must differ meaningfully from the benchmark. Second, you need a clear investing philosophy. Third, a disciplined process is crucial. Fourth, high conviction means an ability to stand by research findings, even when the tide goes against you. At the same time, managers with conviction must also know when to step back and revisit a thesis if circumstances change.
通过这种镜头看到，定罪可以采取多种形式。它远远超过高度的积极份额，这通常被认为是信念的亚文。
我们对八种high-co进行过研究nviction equity strategies, spanning income, value, quality, growth and concentrated approaches. For our study, we defined high-conviction portfolio managers as those ranking in the top 20 percent of one of these categories in the eVestment U.S. Large Cap Equity universe at least 60 percent of the time. They also had to have at least three years of reporting characteristics to qualify. From this group, we extracted managers that delivered above-median returns during the reported period. In other words, we looked at portfolio managers that consistently demonstrated commitment and skill in a specific type of investing discipline.
结果是引人注目的。从2004年到2014年技能高信令股票经理通过重大保证金（见图2），费用粗略地表现出标准差的500指数。价格表现优于价值和收入类别的1.6％和1.9％，分别为3％和3.2％，分别在势头和高度的积极份额。即使在计入费用后，这些是对基准的有意义的保费，支持强大的信息比率，表明有吸引力的风险调整的回报。
这些组中的五个也是被动MSCI因子索引中的。这里也是技术人员的高信念策略提供了固体结果，远远领先于被动因子索引（见图3）。
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这些调查结果是更广泛讨论的起点，了解高信令策略，以实现广泛的投资目标，包括下行保护，采购收入和一致的α和颠覆捕获。在未来的博客中，我们将展示高信念策略在上下市场中的表现以及如何使用不同的组合如何帮助管理特定投资需求的波动性。
对于较低的回报和更高的不确定性，可能没有银弹。但是，同样地，被动/主动辩论不是黑白的。在我们看来，通过获取更深层次的 - 更广泛地了解如何在股票中找到定罪，投资者可以营造一个实现目标的被动和积极策略的组合。
Dianne LOB是股市高级董事总经理，纳尔逊宇是纽约州Alliancebernstein的股票定量研究的联合主任。
此处表达的观点不构成研究，投资建议或贸易建议，不一定代表所有AB投资组合管理团队的意见。
MSCI没有明确或暗示的保证或陈述，并对此处包含的任何MSCI数据没有任何责任。MSCI数据可能无法进一步重新分配或用作其他指标或任何证券或金融产品的基础。本报告未经MSCI批准，审核或制作。