美国银行Merrill Lynch是亚博赞助欧冠第五年的全球研究公司第五年跑。它在12次研究团队调查中积累了242个职位II2015年出版。在第二个地方，摩根2015年，是J.P. Morgan。去年共有39个职位分别分别分别于第一和第二位完成，自该名册于2011年推出。
摩根士丹利，160个斑点和德意志银行，分别在第三和第四位重复。在将总量增加14岁以上，瑞银从第7号跳至第5号。
点击一下顶级全球研究公司在右导航表中，获得101个研究提供商的最终结果，可以在一个地方获得一个地方II队今年。其他环节导致表格展示这些公司如何在发达市场，新兴市场，股票，固定收入等内容中的票价。
甚至在上周宣布的美国劳工处宣布之前，在11月份的就业增长是强劲的，国内经济增加了估计的211,000个就业机会，最高的研究董事被说服了美国美联储准备了提高利率在近十年的第一次。
“We expect a quarter-point hike at the Fed’s December 16 meeting, and we’ve been saying that for quite a long time,” affirms Candace Browning, global head of research at BofA Merrill in New York. “We think the markets are going to take this rate hike very much in stride. The bond market might sell off a little bit, but the equity markets might like the move, for it shows a Fed vote of confidence in the health of the U.S. economy.”
Joyce Chang，Browning在J.P. Morgan的同行同意。“零利率政策的结束是在视线之中，12月份升降机的可能性非常高，”她说。“正常化可以标记锆石的终点，并返回到零的政策率，但它并没有将我们带到任何类型的预定正常性。美联储将在短期利率管理方面保持非常宽松。“
Yields are likely to move higher by more than what is implied by current forward rates, she adds.
“We expect a dollar peak to come — but not at the first Fed hike, and maybe not until mid- to late 2016,” Chang contends. “We expect at least one more dollar surge this cycle, with 2016 gains of 4 percent.”
The currency, she notes, is up some 22 percent since the so-called taper tantrum — the global market sell-off in 2013 sparked by concerns that the Fed’s program of quantitative easing was about to end.
J.P. Morgan预测明年美国经济将扩大大约2.3％，全球增长近似2.8％。“美国在美国的国内需求可能继续在今年下半年看到的稳固步伐中发展，”张相信“，但全球增长的强劲和薄弱的全球增长将继续拖累出口。”
BOFA Merrill的经济学家更加乐观。他们预计美国国内生产总值2.5％在世界各地的3.4％。
Two developments that roiled markets throughout the past year —slowing output in China和暴跌商品价格 - 在2016年可能对2016年产生重大较小的影响。
“八月和九月令人担忧，将在明年继续削弱，”勃朗宁坚持。“中国当局将继续申请刺激措施 - 进一步削减利率，支出，可能贬值 - 因此增长问题将略有淡化。”
As for the商品价格冲击,“我们认为这也是最严重的ehind us,” she says. “The big cut in commodities prices caused a dramatic drop in mining investment in the U.S. — it cut half a percentage point off U.S. growth this year — but prices will stabilize in 2016 even as mining investment remains flat.”
Chang maintains that China will be a “two-speed economy” for the foreseeable future, with service sector expansion outpacing that of manufacturing. “Despite the downshift to [annual GDP] growth under 7 percent, China’s rising share of global output has kept its contribution to global growth stable in recent years — nearly a sizable 1 percentage point annualized, or one third of global GDP growth since 2011,” she adds.
关于商品，“石油市场are still working off the excesses of the last boom, and oil prices hitting $30 a barrel is a possibility, but that’s unlikely to be sustained,” she says. “Expectations for declining non-OPEC supply and demand resiliency are likely to lead to a tepid second-half price recovery for crude oil. By the fourth quarter, we forecast, Brent will reach $62 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate will reach $59 a barrel.
The price of Brent crude fell to $41.90 a barrel in early December, the lowest since March 2009, while WTI slipped under $40.
J.P. Morgan分析师也仍然存在于基地和贵金属，Chang Adds，并认为价格将在董事会中衰落。“更广泛的采矿供需周期仍然有一到两年的时间，”她补充道。
肯定是投资者思想的一个问题是美国总统大选，但这些研究董事都不期望对经济政策产生很大影响。
“我真的不认为选举将重要到美联储的正常化计划，”布朗宁说。“最后五次紧缩周期中的四个始于选举年份或前一年并继续参加选举年份。”
张分享类似的观点。“有一种常见的误解，即[联邦开放市场委员会]不会在大选中徒步旅行，但历史记录 - 包括2004年至2006年的最后美联储徒步旅行周期 - 相矛盾，”她报告。“我们预计将于12月开始规范化进程，并在2016年期间每季以25个基点继续速度。”