From the Mendenhall Glacier in Juneau to Prudhoe Bay above the Arctic Circle, Alaskans by the thousands will soon tear open crisp white envelopes containing the dividend checks they receive each year from the Alaska Department of Revenue Permanent Fund Dividend Division, which doles out money from the state’s $52.8 billionsovereign wealth fund。
他们可能会惊讶地惊讶。尽管自2014年6月以来原油价格下降了60％，但我们的估计，每次油燃料检查应为2,000美元。从去年的Alaska批准的收款人中每一个批准的收款人的$ 1,884起来，因为基金于1982年开始支付此类股息，这是最高的。
自2008年-09金融危机以来，石油附近其最低价格，薪水是纪律的证词 - 以及多元化的力量。驯服碳氢化合物价格对其投资组合的滚子效果阿拉斯加永久基金公司（APFC）就像许多主权财富基金的管理人员一样，在无数资产课上展开其资金。今天，该基金投资于诸如基础设施的地区，private equity和普通的老美国财政债券，使用范围从所谓的智能测试版到套利的策略。
Alaskans’ annual payout is based on the average earnings the fund generated over the previous five years. The key determinant is not the price of crude but profits. “Realized earnings are tied to activity in the portfolio — not the price of oil,” says Valerie Mertz, the APFC’s acting executive director and its chief financial officer.
鉴于其保守指导方针，已将未来几代收益持续超过其余的一半以上的收入并将其送回公民，这一令人印象深刻的回报，在2015年6月至6月份的五年内获得约10％的年化。截至6月份的财政年度2015年30日，2014财年回报率为15.5％，该基金张贴了初步4.9％。
Sifting through minutes of APFC board meetings, which are posted online, one can see that the subject of oil prices barely arises. Alaskans have not voiced concerns to management. “We have had no communication from the citizens of Alaska regarding the decline in oil prices,” Mertz says.
Armageddon并非阿拉斯加永久基金或世界sovereign wealth funds- 至少还没有。尽管如此，石油销售仍然通过艰苦的试验将基于碳氢化合物的资本汇总。许多人像阿拉斯加的基金一样，缺口通过等级，特别是历史更长，大投资组合和执行良好的多元化策略。
毫无疑问，如果今天的低油价持续了几年，情况会变得更糟。But there is little or no panic selling of illiquid assets and, with a couple of notable exceptions, like Russia’s pension fund, few blatant violations of the rules on disbursements of funds to governments, even as jurisdictions like Alaska and Norway are depleting their oil reserves.
油价的崩溃并不是主权财富基金面临的唯一挑战。在逐渐闻名的金融世界的角落里，几乎冰川般的变化，国有投资者突然被迫努力与一系列可能被证明是转型发展的主持人。这些包括野外货币波动的咒语，包括在8月下旬的12个月内欧元兑次欧元兑美元下降13％。挪威克朗人数下降了25％，俄罗斯卢布48％。纽约高级主权战略家Joseph Konzelmann表示，“君主财富基金越来越关注货币举措对其投资组合的影响。”“作为长期投资者，主权资金已经迈出了这些行动。”邀请6月调查发现，57％的主权基金现在使用外汇套期保值来保护他们的投资组合或试图盈利。
上海和深圳证券交易所泡沫的崩溃促使政府招募了7467亿美元的中国投资公司中央汇金投资子公司，以购买汇款资金的股份，以升高的烟草价格。最少的骚动在CIC和其他国家投资者在中国的金钱，如新加坡的1939亿美元淡马锡控股。抛售也提出了市场上升市场的问题，剥夺了习近平的经济自由化和持续增长前景的问题 - 长期存在国有投资者的信仰。
Market volatility aside, one snowballing trend is governance, which overnight has come under scrutiny by media, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) and national legislatures. Norway’s $877.4 billionGovernment Pension Fund Global(GPFG)是一个大的目标,perhaps because of its transparency and because it genuflects to the whims of the Storting, or Parliament, which even when ruled by conservatives has a social bent. Norway recently banned coal-related investments, and an NGO wants GPFG to sell its Coca-Cola Co. stock.
腐败指控以及国有投资者的冲突也在Klieg灯中。4月份金融时报国际石油投资公司的详细房地产交易是董事总经理Khadem al-Qubaisi，他很快离开了663亿美元，基于Abu Dhabi的基金。韩国投资公司首席执行官首席执行官宏川·艾恩（Hongchul Ahn）被举行的议会反对党委员会被指控违反内部基金规则，因为他在洛杉矶道奇队棒球队购买了19％的股权，后来中产了。Ahn否认不法行为，并表示将计划放弃847亿KIC与任何批评无关。
八月，纽约梅隆公司银行同意支付1480万美元以解决美国证券交易委员会的民事指控Foreign Corrupt Practices Actthat it hired as interns unqualified relatives of executives of a sovereign wealth fund, whose identity was not disclosed. The bank did not admit or deny wrongdoing. A bank spokesman declined to comment.
“有一些资金已经在治理前面采取了下巴，”弗莱彻财富和全球资本的弗莱彻·苏娜（Patrick Schena）帕特里克·桑纳（Patrick Schena）帕特里克·桑纳（Patrick Schena）表示，在波士顿以外的塔夫茨大学堡垒学院。“他们感受到了压力。媒体审查当然存在 - 国际媒体，也是当地的。对反对派的兴趣在政治上。“
Oil, though, remains the big story for sovereign wealth funds. Despite the hydrocarbon rout, assets have piled up around the world. The 25 largest funds by assets, as calculated byInstitutional Investor’s Sovereign Wealth Center那oversee $5.64 trillion in our 2015 ranking, compared with $5.06 trillion last year. The top ten funds account for the vast majority of those totals: $4.72 trillion in our 2015 ranking and $4.17 trillion last year.
The assets of Norway’s GPFG drop to $877.4 billion in this year’s ranking from $893.2 billion in 2014, partly because of sharply lower inflows, but at the oil-rich Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, assets rise to $621.2 billion from $589 billion, according to Sovereign Wealth Center estimates. At the Kuwait Investment Authority, assets also have increased, totaling $592 billion, up from $386.1 billion last year. And at the Qatar Investment Authority, assets hit $334.1 billion in the 2015 ranking, up from $304.4 billion, based on estimates by the Institute of International Finance (IIF).
The ultimate impact of the oil price decline depends on its depth and duration. Energy bears see the collapse as a paradigm shift. “I believe it’s a game changer from a macro point of view, from a fiscal point of view and from a sovereign wealth fund point of view,” says Massimiliano Castelli, head of strategy, global sovereign markets, at UBS in Zurich. “The era of the fast-growing sovereign wealth fund is over.”
A key number in determining most hydrocarbon-exporting nations’ resilience over the long term is the so-called fiscal break-even point, which measures the price per barrel of oil that is necessary for a country to meet its budgetary requirements. When the price of oil falls below the fiscal break-even point, it may not be the end of the world, but some course of action is required. A country can seek to increase its exports of oil or other goods. It can reduce spending. The nation can run a deficit, reducing its reserves. Or it can issue debt to help finance continued spending.
今天的问题是，用布伦特油价为45％至50美元的桶，需要做些什么。“大多数国家都有一个高于当前石油价格的财政休息点，”Castelli表示，他是共同作者的The New Economics of Sovereign Wealth Funds。According to the IIF, Bahrain’s fiscal break-even point is $130 a barrel. Saudi Arabia’s breakeven is $103, Oman’s $102, Russia’s $86, the United Arab Emirates’ $75, Qatar’s $65 and Kuwait’s $54. Those are tough numbers.
The focus is onSaudi Arabia。作为世界上最大的石油出口国，它基本上负责去年在Gambit上驾驶石油价格以维持市场份额，也许是有史以来最昂贵的鸡肉游戏，试图强迫美国页岩油生产者培养樟脑球生产。
A blended course of action is represented by the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency (SAMA), whose investment portfolio totaled $235 billion as of December 31, 2014, according to Sovereign Wealth Center estimates, compared with $230 billion a year earlier. SAMA’s governor, Fahad al-Mubarak, announced in July that the agency had withdrawn $65.1 billion from reserves during the first five months of this year. He said he foresaw using the money to help meet an anticipated deficit. Al-Mubarak also said the country had issued $4 billion in government debt during the previous two months. Still, Saudi King Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al Saud can’t be too worried about the budget: After assuming the throne in January, he ordered two months of salary bonuses paid to all state employees, military personnel, pensioners and students.
蛮干？不必要。IIF的中东和北非的IIF首席经济学家Garbis Iradian表示，虽然沙特政府在过去十年中增多了14％的人，但他预计将增加急剧下降，只需5％左右。但这在短期内几乎没有问题。“鉴于王国的丰富财政资源，包括萨马，这并不令人震惊，”阿拉迪安说。“他们可以轻松地天气五年的低油价。我在接下来的四年，五年或六年内没有看到问题。“之后，在延长的时间内，比如，45美元到50美元 - A-桶油，故事可能会采取不同的，丑陋的转弯。“那么有麻烦，”Iradian说。大测试将是沙特阿拉伯需要回滚支出和补贴。 “Will they be forced to cut priority expenditures without increasing social unrest?” he asks. That’s a question as yet unanswered.
令人放心的是,沙特阿拉伯已经通过这个cycle before and bounced back. In 1998, Brent stood at $13 a barrel in real terms, with a then–fiscal break-even price for Saudi Arabia of $20.40. SAMA’s foreign assets were just $46.9 billion, and government debt as a percentage of GDP was 102.2 percent.
Brent prices began to rise, and pretty quickly, too, hitting $28.60 a barrel, comfortably above the country’s breakeven, just two years later, in 2000. By 2013, Brent was $108.80 a barrel and Saudi Arabia’s breakeven was $92.80. SAMA’s foreign assets totaled $725.7 billion, and政府债务由于GDP的百分比仅为2.2％。通过IIF估计，今年的SAMA有610.5亿美元的外国资产 - 很多让狼在海湾。
根据最近的通货膨胀预测，调整为57美元前进，到2020年，萨马仍将拥有3069亿美元的外国资产，政府债务作为GDP的百分比仅为49.2％，沙漠王国将运行财政赤字12％的GDP。
沙特阿拉伯并不孤单地袭击直到袭击。阿塞拜疆共和国358亿美元国家石油基金的首席执行官萨姆尔莫马诺娃告诉了金融时报in March that his fund would be able to draw down several billion dollars to bolster the Central Asian nation’s budget without much difficulty because of its large holdings of short-dateddebt。“They are relying on an issuance of debt and a drawdown of assets,” UBS’s Castelli says.
That oil-exporting nations are tapping sovereign wealth funds to meet fiscal shortfalls should not be a cause for concern, much less panic. “There are some people in the sovereign wealth world who think bigger is better,” says Andrew Bauer, senior economic analyst at the Natural Resource Governance Institute in New York. However, he adds, “size for the sake of size makes no sense.”
Budgetary stabilization, Bauer contends, is one of the principal goals of many such funds. The other mandates typically consist of intergenerational wealth transfer and the earmarking of money for future expenditures. “We are seeing them draw down their funds,” he says. “These funds are meant to serve a purpose. This is exactly what they were designed for.”
Castelli Senses在主权财富基金中发生变化，从贸易顺差，特别是CIC得出的资产。随着九统的经济政策变动抓住，Chinawill transition to a more normalized economy, with greater consumer purchases and a shrinking current-account surplus. That means smaller foreign exchange reserves. “The rise of the forex reserves of China will slow down and reverse as liberalization continues,” Castelli says.
One theme underlying the developments faced by sovereign wealth funds is the increased sophistication and responsibility on the part of these organizations as they deal with these mounting issues. “In annual reports that are being released right now, the strategies are well thought through, the governance is thought through,” says London-based Invesco sovereign wealth group chairman Nick Tolchard. “Sovereign wealth funds have brought in chief risk officers.”
透明度的逐步速度略有粗略，尤为重要，因为它表明了有时华德世界市场，因为它们面临逆风的主权财富基金的专业知识。“他们正在开放和服，”伦敦摩根大通协同委员会委员会的全球主权主管帕特里克汤姆森说。“他们在投资中行事的尽职调查与任何机构一样严格。”
如果开放是一个目标sovereign wealth funds，他们可以比遵循APFC的领导者更糟糕。除了在线发布月度和季度报告外，它还发布了在返回封面上打印基金年度报告的成本：2014年每副本7.87美元。•