To view a PDF of this report click here
年终承诺的形成为2.3万亿美元的经济共同体，以加速贸易和发展，并在亚太地区的核心中为一个充满活力的新单一市场奠定基础。但延迟实施总体规划意味着真正的融合仍然是长途路线。
在制作中几乎已经十年了。但是，在今年年底之前推出了10人的东盟经济共同体（AEC），这是一个最大的一步，最终将删除该地区的人员，商品和服务流动的所有障碍，并迎来一个充满活力的新单一市场。
几乎任何措施，包括文莱，柬埔寨，印度尼西亚，老挝，马来西亚，缅甸，菲律宾，新加坡，泰国和越南的新的经济贸易集团看起来引人注目。AEC位于亚太地区，位于亚太地区，坐落在各大贸易路线上，拥有超过6亿，比欧洲联盟或北美大，但人口统计数据具有相当多的人口统计学。根据J.P摩根的说法，仍然更好的是，在目前的增长率下，东盟应该成为2030年欧盟，美国和中国在2030年之后成为世界上第四大市场，由越来越多地受过良好教育的劳动力和丰富的自然资源支持。
与此同时，已经与中国，日本，印度，韩国，澳大利亚和新西兰签署的自由贸易协定将在理论上，AEC获得一个更大的市场，人口估计高达30亿美元。
“我们设想东盟作为一个综合地区，商业，更大的社区互动和个人成长，一个完全连接到世界其他地区的地区，能够将多样性转化为机会，以便最自豪地called a Community of Opportunities,” according to H.E. Le Luong Minh, secretary general of ASEAN, in a keynote address.
但是，虽然大多数银行家同意该地区的长期潜力，但他们指出必须在真正的整合发生之前解决的缺点。最大的绊脚石是东盟国家之间的巨大政治，文化和经济差异。人均GDP在新加坡和文莱的范围超过40,000美元，在缅甸，老挝和柬埔寨的新兴经济体中少于1000美元。增加到该监管障碍，如货币法规，劳动法和保护主义关税，尚未完全删除。虽然东盟领导人声称，在蓝图中提出的88％的改革已经实施，但其他人则不太确定。
“I think the AEC is over-hyped,” says Dr. Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a director of the Institute of Security and International Studies at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University. “It talks a lot more than it delivers, although over time it does deliver.”
尽管如此，有一些令人印象深刻的改革。在最大的成就中，亚洲开发银行（ADB）列出了减少关税，超过70％的东盟内部地区内部贸易均享受零关税，不到5％的商品遭受超过10％的关税。亚行也认为，在自由化投资和资本流动以及谈判自由贸易协定方面取得了合理的进展。
相反，还有很多待完成的。在最紧急的任务中，在农业，钢铁和服务等敏感领域取消贸易的障碍，消除了非关税障碍，采用竞争政策的统一标准，促进更大的劳动力流动，包括不熟练的劳动力。亚慱体育app怎么下载
亚洲亚洲经济学家Jayant Menon，总结了东盟经济局作为“正在进行的工作”。他指出，AEC的形成的实际结果及其与邻近中国和印度竞争的能力，如果不是数十年来实现，可能需要数年时间。然而，这并不意味着，整合到一个市场并不是一个有价值的目标。“作为投资者，您需要有一致性和透明度，”巴斯夫集团泰国大巴士委员会董事长博尼亚奥帕斯 - IAM-LICIT说。“只要有一致性，就会有支持。”
Connectivity
好消息是，许多举措正在进行中，将促进东盟成员之间的连接，并为更近的物理集成铺平道路。
In late 2014, the Thai government signed an initial agreement with the Chinese government to build a Bt350 billion ($10.6 billion) railway connecting Bangkok to the city of Nong Khai on the border with Laos. If all goes to plan, work on the 600 km track could begin early next year.
泰国前副总理的Pridiyathorn devakula预计更多的所谓“巨型项目”是为了遵循。“鉴于东盟6中的中央地理位置，泰国现在正在积极开展几种兆画幕，以改善东盟的无缝连接，特别是在大湄公河次区域中，”他在5月下旬的区域会议上说。
Thailand is far from being the only country pushing for better infrastructure. The Lao government is also expected to sign a contract with the Chinese government for a $7.2 billion high-speed railway. Eventually a standard gauge double-track will link China’s Yunnan province to Laos, Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore.
它也不只是在优先级列表中高达的铁路。作为东盟愿景2020的一部分，政府还推动了东盟公路网络，该网络将包括23条路线，占地38,400公里，以连接所有10个成员国。
The enhanced transport links are all the more remarkable given the region’s turbulent history. “Little more than two decades ago, cross-border trade was negligible,” says Stephen Groff, vice president for Southeast Asia at the ADB. “Today trade is booming.”
Besides the obvious benefits of increased trade and tourism, an improved network of roads and railway links will lower costs for companies in ASEAN, making it cheaper and more profitable for them to ship goods around the region.
One infrastructure project that has encountered more than its fair share of problems is the Dawei deep-sea port and special economic zone. Situated in southeast Myanmar, a short distance from the Thai border, it was originally slated to include an industrial estate spanning 132 sq. kilometres and a deep-sea port capable of handling 250 million tons of cargo a year, as well as power plants and four-lane highways.
然而，日本日本决定回到自己的竞争工业区之后的雄心勃勃的项目。现在，Dawei项目的瘦身版本可以再次通过泰国，缅甸和日本的政府支持来跨越。建筑公司意大利 - 泰国发展及其联盟合作伙伴罗哈纳工业园区和LNG Plus International最近与缅甸政府签署了特许权协议。该项目的第一阶段预计将包括一家小港口，是泰国的双车道道路，工业庄园，发电厂和液化天然气终端。
Corporate M & A
基础设施不是吸引投资者注意的唯一部门。从制造业到能源勘探和财产开发，AEC正在帮助重放业务线，为能够利用它们的职位的公司呕吐机会。
一些最大的公司名称已经偷走了AEC的3月。泰国的暹罗水泥集团近年来设定了速度，在该地区周围的每个国家都开辟了销售和制造业务。在其最近的收购之一中，暹罗水泥支付了80％的越南锡·锡·帕特纳股份公司股权，附近的80％股权支付了80％的股权。此次收购将将泰国集团转化为东盟的主要包装生产商。
For his part, veteran Siam Cement president and CEO Kan Trakulhoon is upbeat about prospects for the AEC. “SCG continues to operate its businesses with an aim to become a sustainable leader in the ASEAN region,” he says. “Our investment expansion plan is still on track and we continue to export our products within the regional markets as we anticipate growth within the ASEAN region.”
Siam Cement is far from being the only company to expand its footprint in ASEAN. CapitaLand is one of Asia’s largest real estate companies headquartered and listed in Singapore. Its core markets are Singapore and China, but the group also has identified Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia as growth markets. Meanwhile, Thailand’s giant energy group PTT and its subsidiaries also have invested heavily in the region.
并非所有国家都似乎让外国公司肌肉的想法融合在他们的家庭草皮上。马来西亚反复拖累了在竞标中实施优惠关税体系的实施，以保护其自制汽车行业免于外部竞争。一些银行家担心印度尼西亚总统杰科·瓦多托的不愿意积极地拥抱AEC的概念。鉴于印度尼西亚被广泛被视为该地区的经济强国，任何拒绝将市场开拓外国竞争将标志着区域集团的严重挫折。
金融服务
在东盟的所有商业部门，金融服务部门的障碍是靠近清单的顶部。这很难令人惊讶。许多政府可理解不愿意向外国进入者开辟他们的金融市场，因为担心自己的银行将无法竞争。
One of the most glaring examples of protectionism came in 2013, when Indonesia’s central bank turned down an attempt by Singaporean lender DBS to assume a majority share of Bank Danamon Indonesia, the country’s sixth largest bank by assets. Some observers claim the case may set a dangerous precedent. “The creation of the AEC will have a much more limited impact on the financial services sector than in many other areas of the regional economy,” notes a March 30 report by BMI Research. “We expect full liberalization to only realistically take place long after Vision 2020.”
This has not stopped some of the big Thai and Singaporean banks from opening branches and representative offices around ASEAN. In June, Bangkok Bank, which has the largest foreign branch network of any Thai bank, officially re-opened its branch in the Cambodian capital Phnom Penh after a 14-year absence. Bangkok Bank now has a presence in every ASEAN country with the exception of Brunei.
曼谷银行国际银行行政副总裁Kobsak Pootrakool将区域扩张视为许多当地企业的逻辑步骤。“我的客户开始意识到他们不能单独留在泰国，”他说。“他们必须出去捕捉该地区内的机会。”
最新的国家是向外国银行开拓外国银行的最新国家是缅甸。去年年底，曼谷银行，马来亚银行，美国联合海外银行和海外中国银行公司为这家以前封闭的国家赢得了令人垂涎的执照。许多商人都有缅甸被誉为东盟最令人兴奋的长期前景之一。事实上，三年多以前，第一个ATM在首都仰光推出。
“大湄公河次区域的单一重要变化是缅甸的开放，”泰国泰国暹罗商业银行（SCB）国际银行业务负责人Kamalkant Agarwal表示，“泰国第三大贷方”。SCB已经在缅甸拥有代表处。去年，它申请银行许可证，但未能获得批准。本行已明确表示，如果缅甸决定发布新的外资银行许可证，它将考虑重新申请。“我们仍然看到缅甸市场的巨大潜力，”葛兰克纳说。
外国投资者在东盟股票中寻求价值
直到最近，全球基金经理面临的最困难的问题之一是如何曝光的是如何购买具有最大简单的区域股票。直到最近，答案一直是不可能的。
一方面，东盟的七个证券交易所缺乏任何机制，使投资者能够使用一个平台进行不同市场交易。对于另一种，股票必须在不同的结算日期内定居当地货币。
幸运的是，现在已经建立了一些链接来消除最大的障碍。2012年，泰国的股票交易所和监管机构，马来西亚和新加坡推出了东盟贸易环节，为投资者提供了一点进入其中三个最大的东盟股票市场。如今，投资者原则上可以贸易这三个交易所上市的2,200多家公司。当局采取了其他措施，以提高该地区股权产品的可见性，并创造一个更大的可投资股宇宙。其中一个最重要的是推出三个新的可交易索引，涵盖东盟市场：富时东盟全股指数，富时东盟明星指数和FTSE东盟所有分享前发达的指数。下一步，基金经理希望，将要将东盟贸易链接扩展到该地区的其他交流，并协调无缝结束行业的流程。
Bursa Malaysia的首席执行官Tajuddin atan对前景持乐观态度。“作为综合资本市场的东盟的出现已经发生，”他说。“东盟交易所将继续以竞争性合作的精神支持这种发展和伙伴关系。”
一个同样欢迎开发已经启动of growing numbers of dedicated ASEAN funds seeking to cash in on burgeoning demand for ASEAN equities. In September 2014, One Asset Management, a Bangkok-based fund management company, launched the $4.2 million One ASEAN Stars Fund with exposure to the region’s largest markets. This year, it went a step further by introducing Thailand’s first ASEAN index fund, the One Stoxx ASEAN Select Dividend 30 Index. With a size of $15.8 million, the fund’s objective is to replicate the underlying index.
Some investment bankers are also waking up to the new opportunities offered by greater ASEAN integration. Adisorn Singhsacha, managing director of Twin Pine Consulting, advised EDL-Generation Public Company—Laos’ biggest power producer—on a Bt6.5 billion bond issue in the Thai capital market. Adisorn believes it is a logical step for companies in less-developed countries such as Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar to raise funds in more developed capital markets such as Thailand or Singapore. “We already have a couple of deals in the pipeline,” he says.
电子商务的巨大潜力
另一个正在开始吸引外国投资者注意的部门是电子商务。目前，在线宽带用户占东盟六大经济体中成年人口的29％。与中国46％的比较，日本超过90％以上。事实上，唯一一个拥有更高水平的宽带接入的国家是新加坡，这与其他发达经济体相提并论。
但根据全球管理咨询公司A.T.Kearney，情况可能会发生变化。随着宽带接入的成本跨越整个地区，消费者对新技术变得更加舒适，用户数量可能会飙升。反过来可能会提高电子商务业务，占东盟总销售额的占零售总额的1％，而欧洲，中国和美国的6-8％。
“Retail E-commerce offers a unique opportunity to connect millions of merchants and consumers across the region,” says A.T. Kearney’s report “Lifting the Barriers to E-commerce in ASEAN.” The report forecasts that the ASEAN E-commerce markets could grow as much as 25 percent annually. That’s a rate which can probably only be matched by China.
该地区还有其他电子商务的爱好者。亚拉达集团经营东南亚领先的在线购物店之一，迄今为止筹集了5.2亿欧元，以便在东盟围绕东盟扩张。
投资者包括淡马锡控股，J.P.摩根资产管理，Verlinvest，Summit Partners，Tesco，Investment Ab Kinnevik和Rocket Internet。Lazada Group现在拥有大约4,000名员工，在线占地面积超过450万游客。“东南亚的电子商务市场仍处于早期，”拉扎达首席执行官Maximilian Bittner说。“我们将继续投资我们的业务来提高客户体验。”
在线销售之前可以在亚洲真正起飞之前，政府必须仍然解决一些重大障碍。列表中的高度是有援助，提高宽带接入和跨境连接。其他令人担忧的领域包括改善在线安全和电子支付，提高物流和贸易效率，并支持业内当地参与者的出现。
解决这些问题，在许多情况下，可能只是时间问题。随着该地区的蓬勃发展的中产阶级继续扩大，电子商务的投资者可以在东盟集成的最大赢家中找到自己。
减速经济
How ASEAN will weather the challenging global environment is one of the most difficult questions to answer. Until earlier this year, ASEAN looked to be a relatively bright spot in an otherwise unimpressive environment. The 2014 GDP growth came in at a healthy 4.4 percent, well above the 0.9 percent reported by the EU and the 2.4 percent registered by the US.
Some countries did especially well. The Philippines expanded at an impressive 6.1 percent rate, making it one of the world’s fastest-growing nations after China and India. Meanwhile Indonesia, ASEAN’s largest economy, managed to notch up a respectable 5 percent, despite holding general elections and suffering weak prices for its main commodity and energy exports.
然而，今年，中国的放缓与美国利率更高的前景，已经在该地区的经济上施加了阻碍。虽然ADB预测东盟经济将在2015年扩大4.9％，但许多经济学家预计全球贸易量放缓的后期向下修订。
According to Deutsche Bank, global trade expanded at just 1.8 percent year on year in the first few months of 2015, compared with annual growth of 6.8 percent during the period from 2000-2007. “Trade malaise is hugely problematic for the export-oriented economies of Asia, casting substantial downside risk to their outlook,” notes a report by Deutsche Bank published on July 31. The report highlights other structural weakness like lower investment around the region, rising trade restrictions and changing patterns of production.
Compounding the situation is the recent move by the People’s Bank of China to lower the value of the renminbi in a bid to revive the Chinese economy. On the one hand, the weaker renminbi could kick start the Chinese economy, which in turn could stimulate ASEAN exports. But on the other hand, it risks igniting a currency war around the region as countries seek to maintain their own competitiveness by lowering interest rates and letting their own currencies weaken.
最艰难的受影响经济体之一是泰国，在去年5月遭受了军事政变。在经历短期反弹后，由于更稳定的政府和广泛的结构改革的承诺，近几个月再次在出口放缓，农场价格疲软和经济前景差，近几个月再次陷入困境。财政部将于7月的2015年2015年增长预测从今年早些时候的4％达到3％。瑞士信贷认为，真正的数字可能是2.5％。与此同时，泰铢自今年年初以来，泰国泰铢削弱了六年的BT35至BT35，使其成为东南亚最糟糕的表演者之一。
Singapore is also facing another lackluster year largely due to the sluggish global recovery. GDP shrank to? 4.6 percent in the second quarter, driven by a sharp fall in manufacturing amid reduced demand from China. Analysts are already downgrading their full-year forecasts.
Despite the tougher economic conditions, debt levels in the region remain for the most part manageable. This was spelled out in the latest assessment on ASEAN banks by global credit ratings agency Standard & Poor’s issued in early August. While the asset quality of ASEAN banks could weaken over the next 12-18 months as a result of rising household indebtedness and tight liquidity, the report concludes that “the accumulation of capital and provisioning buffers should be sufficient to offset these headwinds and continue to underpin the ratings on the banks.”
好消息是全球outlo挑战ok has done little to slow down growth in Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam, highlighting the wide economic disparities within the region. Investors have coined a new term for these four countries. They are known as the CLMV and they are attracting growing attention from investors who see them as immune to many of the economic forces that are shaping markets in the developed world.
“整个世界正在谈论CLMV地区，”萨克兰特在暹罗商业银行。“四个国家中的三个人的增长率为7％。鉴于我们看到的高水平的直接投资，这些增长率只会变得更好，以及丰富的劳动和自然资源。“
Many economists expect rapid development of the CLMV countries to continue at least for the next few years as they play catch-up with their neighbors. But some worry that unless these countries put in place the physical, legal and regulatory infrastructure now, they will begin to hit bottlenecks.
“你如何保留好时光？”在曼谷银行询问Kobsak。“很容易看到未来五年缅甸可以增长10％，但关键问题是在此之后发生的事情？你必须继续改革自己，以确保持续的好时光。“
In the future, local issues may also cloud the outlook for some ASEAN countries. Next year sees general elections in the Philippines and possibly in Thailand, although it remains unclear if and how general elections will proceed. In addition, both the Philippines and Vietnam are entagled in disputes with China.
Nonetheless the broad consensus is that prospects for next year will improve with economic growth across ASEAN expected to reach 5.3 percent, according to the ADB. That would be welcome news for the region’s leaders celebrating the inaugural year of the ASEAN Economic Community.
by Ben Davies