自8月以来金融市场的极端波动对投资者来说是痛苦的，尽管它不是出乎意料的。事实上，卖出逾期。总体而言，发达国家的增长前景仍然是积极的。但随着极端水平的市场波动，投资者如何保持平静并保持长期的视角？
7月底，我们北方信托资产管理下发布了我们的年度5年资本市场假设项目，我们列举了经济活动和金融市场回报的长期预测。在此，2015年版的报告中，我们得出结论，经济增长缓慢将导致股权前景的重新校准，该校正现已提供。
历史表明，股市矫正更严重，更有可能在经济衰退期间延伸到熊市。我们看到地平线上的一个完全衰退，而是一个“低增长缓慢的烧伤”，是我们的关键主题5年资本市场假设报告。今年上半年美国经济增长2015 was 2.2 percent, right in line with the average growth realized since the end of the 2008–’09 financial crisis. We expect durable growth to continue in the U.S., since there are few excesses in the real economy and no inflationary pressure to push the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates faster than market expectations would suggest. As for other developed markets, European growth averaged 1.1 percent in the first half of the year and should continue to benefit from a cyclical upturn in spending following its recession in 2012 and 2013. Japanese growth has been highly volatile and disproportionately affected by slower growth in China and other emerging markets, but we see signs of hope for sustained expansion in recent data.
谈到中国，大部分市场焦虑的来源，我们期待policymakers to remain focused on generating growth at the expense of reforms- 长期挫折，但一个减少社会和财务短期风险的长期挫折。
股市延迟卖出的销售支持我们五年前景的第二个主题，“周期性符合结构”。通过缓慢的结构扩张，高估的估值是挑战。即使在上个月的市场溃败之后，发达的市场估值仍然相对较高。截至9月1日，使用MSCI数据，美国股票价格为19倍的拖尾收益，低于4月底的20倍，但仍高于17.4的中位数。同样，与14.2中位数相比，欧洲股市从19.3至17.2升至17.2次。日本股票从17.9％到15.7的估值下降，远低于他们的泡沫膨胀的历史水平。新兴市场股票收益下降至12.3倍，低于中位数为14.5。
即使在最近的极端波动之前，过去一年的全球股权市场返回已经与缓慢增长环境一致。鉴于因素的组合，包括债务水平，预期取消杠杆化和过渡新兴经济体，我们预计这一趋势将继续。
Over the past five years through June 30, real growth in developed economies averaged 1.8 percent a year, compared with an annual average of 2.8 percent before the 2008–’09 financial crisis. We expect this tepid growth outlook to continue, with 1.7 percent annual growth over the next five years. We have also trimmed our expectation for emerging-markets growth to 3.8 percent annually, down from 4.5 percent.
Accommodative monetary policy has helped support the cyclical upswing of global developed-markets equity valuations, though this too will be constrained by slackening structural demand. High aggregate debt levels and lopsidedaging demographics那in particular, have long been on the horizon but are beginning to come into view.
总而言之，投资者可以享受一些舒适的，因为目前的波动表明，五年前景可能不会那么令人满意。我们预测发达国家股票的6.1％的年度回报率和相关通货膨胀预测为1.4％。如果这些来通过，所产生的实际回报率为4.7％，证明了股票的持续接触。私募股权和对冲基金的高度投资也可以为整体组合增加价值和效率。
吉姆麦当劳是首席投资策略师，丹尼尔菲利普斯是北方全球战术资产垄断基金的合作经理;at atNorthern Trust在芝加哥。
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