加纳的前景在2000年代后期看起来很明亮。该国最近赢得了西方债权人的债务救济;经济以8％以上的增长率嗡嗡多;刚刚确认大型石油和天然气存款;而该国被称为民主模式，良好的治理和非洲稳定。因此，借用预计的石油收入似乎合理地借入大型基础设施项目，加快发展步伐。它被证明是什么。
Today, Ghana is reeling from a series of policy mistakes and market setbacks. Those oil fields have failed to produce as much as expected, while sharp falls in the price of crude — as well as those ofcocoa和gold, the country’s two other big exports — and chronic power shortages have hammered the economy. Heavy borrowing and generous public sector pay hikes have left the government overstretched and caused the cedi to drop by 25 percent against the dollar this year as of August 23. The Finance Ministry projects growth of just 3.5 percent for 2015, down from 14 percent in 2011, while inflation is running at nearly 18 percent. In April the government of President John Mahama agreed to a $918 million bailout program from the International Monetary Fund, the country’s second in six years.
The program calls for a mix of spending cuts and tax increases to reduce the government’s deficit to 3.5 percent of gross domestic product in 2017, down from 9.5 percent last year. It also requires administrative and legal reforms designed to make sure the country avoids budgetary blowouts in the future. On June 30 the IMF declared Ghana mostly on track to meet its targets, but an IMF program is no guarantee of success. “The next few years are make-or-break,” says Kevin Daly, a senior investment manager for emerging-markets debt at Aberdeen Asset Management in London.
Ghana’s fall from economic boom to bailout is a cautionary tale for much of sub-Saharan Africa. The region has witnessed an influx of capital in recent years as investors have sought higher returns and a play on the continent’s resource wealth and fast-growing consumer class, but commodity price weakness and a newfound risk aversion toward新兴市场threatens an exodus. After Ghana became the first sub-Saharan African state after South Africa to tap the Eurobond market, in 2007, several other countries followed, including Gabon, Rwanda and Senegal, leaving them vulnerable if investors head for the exits. Sub-Saharan African nations raised a record $16 billion on theEurobond market in 2014但是，随着收益率攀升，发行已急剧下降。赞比亚面临着随着铜价推出的越来越多的预算赤字，不得不支付9.375％ - 该地区借款人的最高速度 - 7月出售价值12.25亿美元的欧洲欧元产。
然而，导致投资者对加纳的许多优势仍然存在，包括国家民主稳定和对外投资的开放性。
“政治环境和商业之间确实有明确的分离，”跨越的毛里求斯的私募股权投资者，非洲和亚洲的毛里求斯的私募股权投资者，曾在加纳养老金受托人佩特拉信任股权的保险公司的私人股票投资者的合伙人。Roy Adkins是一家伦敦非洲债务分析师，美国投资经理T. Rowe Price集团，同意：“如果他们可以自己，他们将非常理解为整个大陆领先经济体。”
Ghana was one of the first African countries to win independence in the postcolonial era, breaking free from the U.K. in 1957. After a series of coups in the 1960s and ’70s, flight lieutenant Jerry Rawlings seized power in 1981 and headed a military government for 12 years, implementing a number of reforms recommended by the IMF and other development agencies to increase private investment in the economy and reduce public control. The government invited mining companies to take over and revitalize state gold mines, for example, and it adopted a low-tax regime to encourage investment. “Ghana was the donors’ darling for a long time, and they were reforming a lot of things the donors wanted them to,” Adkins says. Largely as a result, the country ranks as one of the region’s best performers in a variety of surveys, such as the World Bank’s Doing Business ranking of regulatory climates (fourth in sub-Saharan Africa, 70th globally) and the Resource Governance Index, which rates countries for transparency and management of natural resources.
1992年，加纳通过了一项新的宪法和合法的政党;罗林斯继续赢得两个为总统的四年术语。从那时起，选举被认为是自由和公平的，国家的政治稳定吸引了发展机构和外国投资者的资金。根据世界银行数据，人均GDP从2000年的264美元飙升至2013年的1,875美元，但2014年跌至目前的危机袭击，跌至1,476美元。
2007年加油的石油和天然气的发现承诺加速发展。该国国家首次兑欧元兑欧元兑美元发布 - 为5.31亿美元，十年的交易 - 帮助资助新的基础设施项目。第一个大一个是10亿美元的加工厂，可以从海上禧炎田中搬运，并准备它用于发电厂，产生廉价的电力和衡量昂贵的原油进口。
但是，天然气流量比预期慢，施工延误意味着植物直到2014年末，两年后才能预定。加纳的石油进口法案实际上上涨，2014年的370亿美元起，2012年的29亿美元，国有电厂以不到50％的容量运行。低降雨量已复制电力短缺，导致加纳主电厂的产量下降，沃尔塔河上的水电站。消费者和企业面临滚动停电，通常每36小时持续12小时。据世界银行介绍，该国花费1.9％的GDP占GDP的损失成本，占GDP的3.9％。
在他的7月更新到议会上，金融部长Seth Terkper表示，在规划和建筑的各个阶段九个新电厂将近于该国的一代发电量，到约1,800兆瓦。目前尚不清楚所有这些植物是否会建造，但投资者欢迎政府对私人资本的开放性。“我们希望他们努力谈判均衡的电力购买协议，并有明确的要求来支持主要项目，”丹参资本的权力交易团队，基于波士顿的私募股权公司的权力交易团队的高级成员，这是一个拥有努力的能源，非洲电力项目的开发商。
然而在加纳，如非洲，生产电力无法保证消费者可以使用它。提供电力需要传输和分配网络，以及计费和维护能力。对于非洲公用事业的投资者，国有分销公司支付他们所采取的权力的能力是一个重大风险。根据权力非洲，奥巴马政府计划旨在促进在大陆电力部门的投资，美国政府发展局千年挑战公司致力于将加纳两家国有配送公司现代化的498,000,000美元达到49.8亿美元。
来自Jubilee的气体不会解决所有这些问题，但加纳决定为中国开发银行贷款提供资金的处理工厂似乎增加了它的问题。与CDB的谈判花费时间超过预期，延迟贷款支付和项目的完成。作为贷款的一部分，此外，CDB每天需要13,000桶，为加纳石油产量或每日的13％。新兴 - 市场战略家布雷特·罗利表示，CDB贷款的条款往往并不明确那样清楚的是其他开发融资的条款TCW Group在洛杉矶。“政府正在考虑这是优惠融资，但我不确定他们了解他们的期望，”他补充道。
随着Jubilee Field的意外收获未能按预期到达，加纳政府努力支付公共工人的工资上涨，这是最早和最大的政策错误之一。在2008年的总统选举活动中，反对派候选人约翰阿提亚米尔斯向公务员承诺了一系列薪资。承诺帮助他赢得大选，但在一个陡峭的成本。据财务部统计数据统计，工资在2013年征收了72.5％的税收收入。根据世界银行的说法，公共部门的工作现已支付超过政府以外的政府，妨碍私营部门的增长加纳希望刺激。
“工资增加是杀手的打击，”阿伯丁的戴利说。“最终，他们惩罚更广泛的人口。”这种体验不是加纳独有的，加入TCW的Rowley。“反对派党批评政府在选举年度超支，然后掌权，做了完全相同的事情，”他指出。“这是我们在非洲的几个民主国家看到的风险。”
The lack of fiscal discipline led donors to cut back. Aid grants fell to 1.1 percent of GDP from 2011–’14, down from 2.8 percent during the preceding four years, according to the IMF.
With problems compounding, the government stepped up borrowing and tapped the reserves of the central bank, the Bank of Ghana, to fund daily expenses. Government debt is expected to hit 67.5 percent of GDP this year, up from 38.7 percent in 2011; debt service costs are set to jump to $1.2 billion in 2017, when the country’s first Eurobond matures, from an average of $383 million a year from 2012 to 2014.
根据财政部长Terkper的中年更新，加纳又将额外的欧洲欧洲欧洲欧洲欧洲欧洲欧洲央行提供了一如既达15亿美元，并将使用所得款项，以便退休，以便退休，以便退休，以便退休，以便在财政部长Terkper的中年更新。The offering would push Ghana’s dollar-denominated debt load past $4 billion — almost triple the total oil revenue of $1.5 billion the country has generated since crude began flowing in December 2010, according to the Natural Resources Governance Institute, a George Soros–funded advocacy group that publishes the Resource Governance Index.
作为其国际货币基金组织救助计划的一部分，政府致力于将税收2％的GDP征税，并削减支出，主要是薪金。去年通过采用招聘冻结和削减所谓的幽灵工人，将工资账单修改为53％的税收收入 - 绘制薪水的人，但没有工作。加纳已经承诺在九月消除消费者燃料补贴。这些和其他措施旨在将2017年赤字降低到3.7％的GDP，从去年的9.4％，将债务降至61.1％的GDP。国际货币基金组织计划还要求政府停止截至明年的中央银行储备金。
一些外国投资者可以预计该计划的良好待遇。国际货币基金组织建议，政府削减了目前达到GDP的约6％的豁免，税务假期和免税区。
Reading through Ghana’s to-do list under the IMF program makes clear that even in one of Africa’s most stable, democratic and well-governed states, there is plenty of room for improvement. One of the key concerns, particularly as the country gears up for next year’s presidential election, is whether Ghana can break the pattern of blowout spending in an electoral year. This is a chance to prove that the government has learned from past mistakes. TCW’s Rowley sees some encouraging signs of change in Ghana’s approach to issuing debt. In years past, the government would accept virtually any and all tenders at its debt auctions, exceeding its fundraising targets even if it meant accepting tenders at excessive yields. This year the Treasury has been more disciplined. “The biggest improvement I’ve seen is on the debt management side,” Rowley says.
With new oil and gas fields set to come onstream in the next few years, a combination of greater discipline and more revenue could strengthen the finances of the government and allow it to start reviving some of its infrastructure projects, especially in the power sector. But although several new fields look promising — one holds enough gas to solve the country’s electricity shortage on its own — Ghana’s experience argues against taking anything for granted.
“政府专注于明亮的中期前景，对短期盲目，”罗利说。“一件事投资者现在感觉更好的是，他们专注于这里。中期由许多短期组成。“•
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