A lot has changed on Wall Street since 2009. One thing that hasn’t is the crop of newly minted hedge fund managers coming to market each year with the hope of making it big.
在金融危机之后推出的对冲基金公司在五年的曲目记录中闭幕，这也与最近内存中最大的股票中最大的跑步之一恰逢其一致。在纸上，这些管理人员可能看起来好像它需要什么，但他们真的是吗？五年可以被认为是沙子的一条线吗？或者投资者希望看到2016年如何在他们的“新兴”名单上移动经理之前？
八月对对冲基金行业几乎是每个策略的一个糟糕的月份。以伦敦的研究和咨询公司预先出版的预票全策略对冲基金基准，上个月返回-1.88％，年初的收益已下降到2％以下。上周市场结束后，美国联邦储备委员会决定不提高利率，使其看起来好像最近的波动率将持续下去。
“我们认为这是评估管理人员市场的好时机，”纽约纽约的家庭办公室Schonfeld集团控股总裁Andrew Fishman说，专注于对冲基金以定量和基本股权战略。Fishman指出，2011年的一些公司的困难可以提供他们如何管理波动的感觉;最近的损失可能有助于讲述故事。
Fishman和Schonfeld Cio Ryan Tolkin总是在寻找提供他们以前没有看到的策略的经理。该搜索需要很多尽职调查，但它也意味着找到一个可以详细解释投资组合的经理以及为什么要详细解释的经理。
“We’ve seen a lot of sector dispersion recently,” Tolkin says. “People should have been able to make good picks in recent market conditions, if you’re with sound sector managers. Those choices can be telling even if a manager has been around for only the past five years.”
风险管理也可以是将运气与技能分开的好方法。在过去的几周里，由于市场翻滚，经验丰富的经理可能已经倾向于购买风险，但由于市场的敏感性，他们令人惊讶的是，他们被揭露“，”雷蒙德纳（Cio和Co-Managing合作伙伴）说New York–based SkyBridge Capital那a $13.6 billion fund-of-hedge-funds firm. That intuition may not always come to newer managers, even if they have been traders before heading their own funds.
Part of developing a sixth sense about the market is learning how to right-size a trade or strategy. For example, event-driven funds were some of the biggest losers in August, according to the latest替代投资行业晴雨表report from Paris-based Lyxor Asset Management. But a number of allocators think these strategies are in a good position to take advantage of market conditions for the rest of 2015. For emerging managers, the key is to avoid overtrading in response to volatility.
“Newer managers in the event-driven space could find these markets more tricky to navigate because they are dependent on stock-specific catalysts,” explains Russell Barlow, London-based head of the $11 billion hedge fund unit at Aberdeen Asset Management. “This introduces the risk of newer managers’ overtrading in these environments, reducing exposure at market lows or increasing position sizing at the wrong time.” The psychological pressure of managing a portfolio, and being judged based on a monthly return when some trades take months to execute, can impact decisions, Barlow adds.
如果基金的表现开始幻灯片，则分配者警告经理解释情况并挖掘每个职位很重要。“I’m positive on many strategies, although within each area I think you have to stay nimble and be ready to move on,” says Anne-Gaelle Pouille, a member of the portfolio construction group at Pacific Alternative Asset Management Co., a $9.1 billion fund-of-funds firm based in Irvine, California.
When it comes to event-driven strategies, Pouille sees opportunities in merger arbitrage and in some Japanese trades resulting from governance changes. “Macro brings risks from sharp reversals, so I am treading cautiously,” she adds. “Looking at individual positions is really helpful to understanding a manager’s real betas and alphas, as well as their risk management philosophy.”
剥离真正的β和alphas还可以向经理使用交易所交易资金提供视图。根据伦敦的ETF行业咨询公司etfgi的说法，ETF和其他交易所交易产品在八月份收集了208亿美元的全球全球范围内全球208亿美元，连续19个月的净流入连续19个月。并非所有这些资金都提供了传统投资者习惯的相同的索引风险;许多人带来了短暂的曝光等额外，这使得它们更具吸引力，作为投资工具和对冲基金管理人员作为进出职位的流动手段。但投资者刷新了支付2％的管理层和20％的绩效费用，他们可以直接购买的东西。
“我们尽可能地推动尽可能小的ETF与我们的基本股权投资组合管理人员一起使用，”Schonfeld的Fishman说。“我们希望看到单股alphas。这一说，最近，我们的投资组合经理使用了更多ETF，因为外卖风险是一个真正的问题。“
但是，在长期的股票中甚至在8月份的一个月内，那些单储物alphas很难通过，除了波动之外一切都被挫折。Pouille指出，在最近的反弹中使用一篮子ETF可能会帮助管理者在单一股票短期无处可见时定向移动。“我也相信应给予交易ETF技能的经理给予一些信贷，”她说。“这绝对是不同于购买和持有搁板的ETF。”
某些策略将看到比其他人的兴起更大ETFs. “ETFs are less of a threat in niche strategies, but for more high-beta strategies, ETFs are going to be a bigger threat,” says Stephen Mason, portfolio manager at Coral Gables, Florida–based Collins Capital Investments, a $462 million fund-of-funds firm.
Even if a hedge fund manager starts using more ETFs, they may not face as much pushback from investors if volatility persists. That’s in part because there aren’t many high-return places for allocators to park cash. The low-yield environment could also give newer managers a little extra runway to build a stronger business and hold on to investors.
“There has been some turnover in the small-managers space — that’s really where you see the creative destruction happen in the market,” says Anthony Lawler, London-based head of portfolio management for $132.8 billion Swiss asset manager GAM. “On the other hand, a lot of investors are negative year-to-date on traditional bond and equity allocations. If they have alternatives, they might only be down 1 percent or they could be up 2 or 3 percent, which means they aren’t going to be in a rush to change anything.”