虽然股票市场状况显得很不成功ettled, we at KKR Global Macro and Asset Allocation believe that now is the time to start allocating more incremental capital back toward risk assets, particularly in the U.S. We see negative sentiment, decent — albeit unspectacular — growth in earnings per share and reasonable valuations as signals to whatwe call leaning in到美国市场的某些部分。为此，我们正在对我们的目标资产配置进行以下两项变更：
•与2％的基准相比，我们将现金降至3％的1％。随着价格下降和波动，我们现在感到强迫开始花费一些我们在1月份待遇的一些雨天基金。我们决定的隐含是我们认为股权周期成熟 - 但尚未结束。
•我们正在使用我们的现金收益来提高我们的全球股权分配，通过将我们的投资组合投入到美国股票的22％，高于20％，与20％的基准相比，从平等的权重中提升到同等权重的超重。我们保留了对亚洲的1％的超重 - 重点关注日本 - 我们对欧洲的2％超重，抵消了我们的2％体重拉美，特别是巴西。
Whereas we expect there to be plenty of debate about whether to add to U.S. equities at present valuations, at this point in the economic cycle, we think that the long-term outlook for the U.S. has become much less controversial, particularly relative to its global peers. A major positive, we believe, is that the long-term outlook for the U.S. consumer has improved materially in recent quarters. We now see more gains ahead, specifically around household formation. U.S. corporations are leveraging innovation across a variety of sectors, including health care, technology and energy services. Against this constructive macro backdrop, our allocation framework now argues for an increased weighting on both a short- and long-term basis to the U.S.
符合这一观点，我们在美国看到五个大规模的投资机会。我们认为在未来几年内，我们认为将增加资本流量和投资者的比例增加：
U.S. household formation is breaking out; invest behind this development.应该繁荣的主要部门包括住房，multifamily rental和家庭维修。
Although we do not see a major shift in consumer preferences toward luxury goods, we do expect more consumer spending in many areas, including recreation, beauty and wellness.消费者经验正在优先于产品 - 这一趋势我们预计的趋势将以速度增加。此外，鉴于我们寻求生产力的几乎没有提高，我们预计强劲的就业增长趋势将继续在美国继续趋势
U.S. noncyclical growth stocks, particularly in health care and technology, should continue to appreciate.We acknowledge that near-term valuations are stretched in certain instances, but we like big-market opportunities like insulin systems for diabetes patients, immuno-oncology therapies andcybersecurity。我们也认为美国，鉴于靠近墨西哥和加拿大，正在重建自己作为重新振动倡议的令人信服的地方。我们没有看到真正的“制造文艺复兴，”虽然我们相信有一些值得注意的尾风，请担保投资者的关注。
我们预计美国金融股也会表现良好。In particular, we favor domestic banks, insurance companies and credit card companies, which should benefit from better credit conditions. Consistent with this view, performance of mortgage credit and asset-based lending should be better than current expectations, especially if we are right that long-term rates will remain low. As part of our strategy, we focus on financial companies with aggressive capital management programs.
我们对美国股权市场中心的价值理念能源部门那which is suffering from an overhang of excess capacity and capital.With valuations down meaningfully, however, we think that now is the time to begin the search for long-term winners amid the rubble. In particular, it appears that in certain instances the market is not discerning properly between low-cost and high-cost producers, as well as between recurring revenue infrastructure stories and more speculative exploration and production brands.
可以肯定的是，我们的重新分配有风险。美国企业利润可能达到顶峰，兼并和收购趋势出现泡沫，金融条件变得不太有利。我们在更大的画面中的担忧是我们仍然陷入困境异步恢复那with lack of global demand from developed markets weighing on the virtuous cycle that defined the economic recoveries of the 1990s and 2000s. Also, we believe the China fixed-investment slowdown has yet to fully play out. True, growth in year-over-year fixed investment is down to just 11 percent in 2015, compared with nearly 34 percent year-over-year in 2009. We still see more downside ahead as the Chinese government tries to bring nominal lending growth below nominal gross domestic product.
但是，我们认为我们通过我们的投资组合建议减轻了两种方式的任何潜在问题。首先，我们的资产分配目标在KKR全球宏观和资产分配仍然保留了大量的15％的超重，以陷入困境和特殊情况，我们认为在我们在许多新兴市场的脱位中继续茁壮成长。其次，如果中国及其新兴市场同行确实创造了某种形式的全球蔓延，我们认为美国的70％与消费者相关的经济，将比其同行组更加绝缘。We believe that any significant pullback in U.S. equity markets should be viewed as an opportunity for long-term investors to increase exposure to what we believe is emerging as one of the more interesting country-specific macro stories across the global capital markets in the coming years.
亨利麦维维是KKRGlobal Macro and Asset Allocation in New York.
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