Malcolm Turnbull and Australia’s Experiment with Political Centrism

Global reactions to Australia’s change of prime minister this past week have focused on the violent — and at times unpredictable — political culture of the world’s 12th-largest economy. Malcolm Turnbull, 60, became Australia’s sixth prime minister in eight years after toppling Tony Abbott in a dramatic challenge inside the ruling Liberal Party last week.

显然，堪培拉没有地方为政治心脏 - 或容易混淆。Abbott在权力的第一学期中是两年的时间。类似的命运贝弗尔前总理凯文·克鲁德（Kevin Rudd）被Julia Gillard于2010年被Julia Gillard举行的左右工党领导人，这是他的首发营运该国的理工学院。牛仔启动的rudd后来对吉拉德回来了恩惠，让她成为2013年选举前几个月的总理，他输给了雅培的自由主义者。现在Abbott看到他的党的同事放弃了他支持Turnbull。

Abbott has pledged to respect the decision and spare his conservative party of the factional destabilization, known Down Under as白色，这困扰着劳德·吉拉德年的工党。除非Turnbull可以在民意调查中迅速恢复他的党的标记财富，但是，进一步的政治波动似乎是不可避免的。

Although the magnificent brutality of Australia’s two main political parties has captured much of the attention, what’s been overlooked is the broader policy shift heralded by Turnbull’s elevation to the prime ministership. Much of the developed world is in the grip of a heavy flirtation with the extremes of the political spectrum: socialist-leaning Jeremy Corbyn’s election as head of the U.K. Labour Party, the rise of唐纳德·特朗普和伯尼桑德斯通过2016年美国总统初级初级初级初步，以及越来越右左右运动的吸引力紧缩欧洲all point to a deep disenchantment in the West with established political structures and policy orthodoxies. With Turnbull’s coronation, however, Australia, has gone in the opposite direction: toward the center. Abbott was a pugilistic and divisive leader who mixed hard-line views on social issues with a tough-on-refugees commitment to border defense and a shrill, inflexible policy of deficit reduction. His term in office will be best remembered for repeating ad nauseam his signature pledges to “axe the tax,” which led to the 2014 repeal of a carbon tax introduced by the former Labor government; and “stop the boats,” in reference to the comparatively minuscule number of refugee arrivals on boats from southeast Asia.

Abbott was a highly effective opposition leader but he lost his way once handed the mantle of executive leadership. He alienated the electorate with needlessly aggressive spending cuts while bizarre social policies made unilaterally, without party consultation, pushed away his parliamentary colleagues. Turnbull has promised to be his predecessor’s opposite, pledging a style of leadership based around substance and a pragmatic centrism. “We need advocacy, not slogans,” he announced on the night of his election as Liberal Party leader. “We need to respect the intelligence of the Australian people.” In a world awash with juvenile sloganeering and easy policy fixes, Turnbull offers a radical return to thoughtfulness. The rise of Donald Trump, in particular, offers the slightly alarming prospect of the world’s most powerful nation being run by a man with all the discipline and emotional self-restraint of a child who’s just been robbed of his spade in the sandbox. Australia, meanwhile, has handed the reins of power to an adult. Depending on how he fares, Turnbull may offer hope to those yearning for a global return to political maturity.

当然，他将如何票价是关键的不可逆性。Transbull，据估计超过1.5亿美元的澳大利亚议会的最富有的澳大利亚议会的成员长期以来一直被称为未来总理。狂热，自信，并说服了他自己的智慧和能力的破碎优势，他从贫困中升起，通过20世纪80年代和1990年代享受闪闪发光的职业生涯，因为在向政治转向政治之前是一家勇气，投资银行家和科技投资者。它表示关于他的中心主义的一切，即主要缔约方 - 劳动力和更保守的自由主义者 - 在进入议会之前向他求助。在社会问题上，他是一名可耻的温和，有利于同性婚姻，这在澳大利亚法律上被特别禁止。他也是一个忠诚的共和党人，争论澳大利亚的宪法君主制结束，在英国女王下。

作为一个男孩，Turnbull参加了悉尼语法学校，这是一个独立的私立学校，是澳大利亚最古老，最学业的精英教育机构之一。在悉尼语法的网站上，目前的校长说明了学校的哲学，如下：“我们拒绝贬低人类重要性的态度。”Turnbull似乎承诺了一个遵循类似剧本的政府风格。然而，这些社会自由主义的职位将他的赔率与许多他更加明显的保守派的同事们占有欲。自由党，尽管其名称和社会进步史的影响，但近年来朝着右转剧烈飘动。转盘管理这些紧张局势将是决定他首相的成功的核心;如果政府转得太远，已经播出了一些更保守的议会自由派播出了一方分裂的可能性。

Tech investors in Australia like to say Turnbull “gets it,” the “it” in question being technology, business and the risks that accompany investment. His biggest successes came in the 1990s: his timely, if not also lucky, investment of $450,000 in internet business OzEmail blossomed into a $59.3 million exit, while the sale of his own boutique investment firm to Goldman Sachs in 1997 earned him, among other things, a partnership at the storied New York bank. Turnbull stayed at Goldman through its 1999 IPO; his 0.2 percent ownership stake netted him around $33 million. In his first words as leader on Monday, Turnbull painted a vision of the country’s future that could have been ripped from the pitchbook of a Silicon Valley kingmaker: “The Australia of the future has to be a nation that is agile; that is innovative; that is creative.” This was stirring stuff, and it predictably got the business community purring.

Early polls favor a return to power for the Liberal Party in 2016, which should give market watchers the chance to monitor the more interesting narrative of how a Turnbull government will execute its stated intention to wean Australia off commodities and turn it into an innovation-focused economy.

澳大利亚，凭借其对中国销售石油和天然气，煤炭和铁矿石的沉重依赖，已经比最先进的经济体变得更加努力大陆经济放缓。澳大利亚的GDP在第二季度扩大了0.2％，显着下降了预期。如果有一个令人难以置信的风险接受者才能负责这个国家的经济方向，这肯定就是这样。商业领袖希望，Turnbull将追求税收和劳动法的改革，他以前发表了强烈观点的领域，同时对最终政策的过程没有影响。虽然他的计划将澳大利亚转变为创新国家，但迄今为止，他提供了小物质来备份它。一个股票市场的一个相对小的消费基地，一个股票市场围绕几个大矿业名称相对未开发的启动融资结构将自己变成南太平洋的硅谷？Turnbull自己似乎不受欢迎，因为未来的波涛汹涌的水域似乎不受干扰。上个月在上个月与商业纸张采访澳大利亚财务审查他讨论了他自己的投资组合Turnbull说，“波动率为更敏捷的机会提供了机会。投资者正在寻找增长，他们正在寻找更高的回报和资产价值，但所有这些都具有增强的风险。“

对于最近的所有中国主导的经济特色，澳大利亚拥有大多数发达国家的基本原则。根据国际货币基金组织，2014年净公共债券仅达到GDP的17％，而美国的80％和日本127％。Turnbull将拥有财政空间，以相对抑制的方式为该国实施他对国家的愿景 - 奢侈品的许多先进经济体，靠近世俗的停滞不前，不享受。随着Turnbull的提升到总理，澳大利亚突然是作为一种政府风格的实验室，在思考承诺王喊叫。它应该令人着迷的观点。

在Twitter上关注Aaron Timms@aarontimms.。

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