2015 All-Latin America Research Team: Mexico, No. 1: Nur Cristiani, Gabriel Lozano & team

<The 2015 Latin America Research Team
Nur Cristiani, Gabriel Lozano & teamJ.P. MorganFirst-Place Appearances: 2

Total Appearances: 17

Team Debut: 1993

Nur Cristianiand newcomerGabriel Lozanoguide J.P. Morgan’s squad from third place all the way to the top, notching the firm’s first No. 1 finish since 2010. The three Mexico City–based researchers earn high marks from one money manager for being “well connected and savvy” about Mexico’s top politicians and bureaucrats as well as willing “to get into the nitty-gritty details” in responding to knotty questions. “I’ve asked them about things like the impact of tomato prices on the [consumer price index] and about how industrial production numbers are calculated,” this client says, “and they always find the right answers.” The team is bullish on Coca-Cola Femsa, a Mexico City–headquartered multinational drinks company and the world’s largest franchise bottler of Coca-Cola Co. beverages. Despite trading at a high multiple, the stock has ample upside potential, Cristiani advises, citing its projected 11.5 percent compound annual growth rate through 2017. Moreover, even greater earnings expansion should develop from “positive consumer trends coupled with new initiatives,” she notes. Trading at $70.51 in mid-July, Femsa’s American depositary receipts bear a target price of $106. J.P. Morgan’s analysts also recommend overweighting Megacable Holdings, a cable television, Internet access and telephone services provider that they forecast will continue to be the beneficiary of declining fortunes at Mexico City–based telecommunications giant América Móvil and the erosion of TV’s popularity. Changing consumer tastes will mean “broadband penetration will grow at faster rates,” says Cristiani. Their price objective for Megacable’s shares is 77 pesos, which represents a 16.4 percent premium to their value in mid-July. Lozano, 41, joined J.P. Morgan as chief Mexico economist in July 2012, after four years in a similar role at Banco Santander (México). Previously, he worked as a strategist at Santander Asset Management and a senior officer at Banco de México. Lozano earned a Ph.D. in economics from the U.K.’s University of Warwick and a bachelor’s degree in the same subject from Mexico’s Universidad Iberoamericana. Cristiani graduated from the Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México with a BS in actuarial sciences and served as a portfolio manager at BBVA Bancomer and an emerging-markets strategist at Credit Suisse’s private bank. The 33-year-old has been head of J.P. Morgan’s Mexico equity research and strategy efforts since signing on with the firm in October 2011.