你不需要联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的一份声明就能知道美联储在往哪个方向发展

It is no secret that strong valuations in global equities and fixed income are based largely on extraordinarily accommodative monetary policy by central banks. Market participants and the media have been speculating for months about the exact timing of the Federal Reserve Board’s first interest rate hike, but theFed itself has been reluctant to give a clear signal. 别指望在今天的央行政策制定联邦公开市场委员会会议之后，情况会有所改变。

Yet a careful analysis of recent rhetoric from FOMC members clearly indicates they have three biases that will shape this pivotal decision.

First, the FOMC wants to begin rate normalization in 2015.

Despite theglobal financial market volatility in June and July, prominent FOMC speakers have not flinched in their resolve to begin raising rates this year. As one would expect, several hawkish committee members, including Fed presidents James Bullard in St. Louis and Loretta Mester in Cleveland, voiced their preference for a rate hike — or two! — in 2015. Although it is not surprising they would favor a rate hike sooner rather than later, it warrants additional attention when others voice the same resolve.

那是什么Fed chair Janet Yellenherself did in a speech on July 10, right in the midst of the uncertainty about the plight of Greece. “Based on my outlook, I expect that it will be appropriate at some point later this year to take the first step to raise the federal funds rate and thus begin normalizing monetary policy,” she stated. Yellen reiterated this point in her testimony before both House and Senate subcommittees the following week.

Second, the Fed wants to move on the back of strong economic data.

The mere mention of a slowing of bond purchases by the Fed was enough to send financial markets reeling during the so-calledtaper tantruma couple of years back. A rate increase accompanied by a tailwind from strong economic data would help ensure a smooth transition for U.S. financial markets. Current valuations in the markets could be better justified by stronger economic and growth fundamentals, even as the Fed removes policy accommodation. The lack of such strength earlier this year is, one might surmise, what caused the FOMC to delay its supposed original plan of raising rates in June.

Finally, the FOMC will be very cautious about inflation.

For more than three years now, key measures of core inflation have been below the Fed’s 2 percent objective — the longest stretch of time that core inflation has remained below that threshold in more than 50 years. One has to go back to the early 1960s to find as long a stretch of soft inflation. Given this persistent disinflation, it is easy to see how FOMC members would want to be doubly sure about the strength and sustainability of any upward trend in inflation before actually pulling the trigger on rates.

所有这一切意味着什么likely timing of a Fed hike?

预计下半年的经济数据足够好，联邦公开市场委员会可以加息。按照目前的轨迹，第三季度经济和就业增长将增强，通胀可能会保持足够的稳定。这些条件应该最早在9月份为近10年来的首次加息提供了一个开门红。然而，大多数委员会希望看到更多的数据证实通胀有所改善，特别是考虑到当前通货紧缩的持续时间。考虑到美联储中央的这一深思熟虑的做法，美联储公开市场委员会（FOMC）可能会在12月份加息。

The initial hike will be followed by a pause of three to six months in 2016. The FOMC has made very clear that markets should not expect rates to be increased steadily or rapidly once normalization begins. In fact, investors should expect more than one pause in this rate cycle, which would allow financial markets to fully digest the shift in policy and also provide a buffer to ensure that economic trends remain positive.

Shehriyar Antia is the founder and chief market strategist at Macro Insight Group, an investment strategy firm based in New York. Prior to founding MIG, he worked on quantitative easing programs and monetary policy as a senior market analyst at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

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