Bank of America Merrill Lynch Leads 2015 Emerging EMEA Research Team

Two questions in particular are very much on the minds of asset managers that invest in emerging Europe, the Middle East and Africa: Will希腊离开欧元区，什么时候会美国美联储raise interest rates?

A Greek exit — or Grexit, as it’s becoming colloquially known — could have an even more devastating impact on world markets than the 2008 collapse ofLehman Brothers Holdings那some observers believe, while others insist that damage would be short term and contained.

最重要的一致认为，如果经济联盟保持完整，这将会更好。

“不太可能Grexit Gr的绝大多数eek population and Parliament as well as the European Union leadership want to avoid it almost at any cost,” asserts Anthony Bor, director of emerging EMEA equity research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in London. “But we have been warning about brinkmanship leading to high volatility before a final agreement.”

Pascal Moura, Deutsche Bank’s Dubai-based head of emerging-markets research, shares a similar view. “The factors driving progress in the Greek negotiations over the next few weeks will be deeply political, and a Grexit is now undoubtedly a significant possibility,” he contends. “Given the need for both sides to compromise, we expect headlines to only intensify between now and a last-minute agreement. Our core scenario remains for Greece to remain in the EU as for both sides a Grexit represents a scary journey into the unknown.”

如果一致没有达到？“一个格雷克利特可能会导致一些短期波动，但市场已经长时间考虑了它，并对近年前其他市场的大多数与高君主债务水平有关的风险，”穆拉说。“我们希望全球经济的健康和油价最终比希腊局势发挥更重要的作用，我们都在两者方面都是建设性的。”

但是，博尔认为，这样的偏离“将破坏欧元区的长期信誉，作为退出的先例。”

Then there is the issue of when the Fed will raise rates. Two years ago investors yanked money from emerging markets in a so-called锥度发脾气after board members spoke of winding down the central bank’s program of quantitative easing. The prospect of the first rate increase in nearly a decade definitely has some market participants on tenterhooks, although many research directors believe the fears are overstated.

“美联储现在看起来像一个知名的未知，”亚历山大卡塔罗维奇观察到10月，他在伦敦J.P.摩根的中东欧洲，中东和非洲的研究负责人。“市场受到惊喜的推动，并且随着已经烘焙的徒步旅行的普遍期望，可能会变得更加”发脾气“。

Moura concurs. “A rate hike will be a risk event for the markets, but rate rises should be gradual and some adjustments have already taken place,” he points out. “A major sell-off remains unlikely.”

Nonetheless, money managers want to be prepared, and many will seek the insights and opinions of those on the sell side as these and other issues move toward resolution. The firm whose perspectives they value most highly is BofA Merrill, which for a third year running tops the Emerging Europe, Middle East & Africa Research Team,亚博赞助欧冠该地区最佳销售方分析师的独家年度排名。该公司在调查的20个部门中获得了一份现场，该部门产生了出席的结果，仅在运输中失踪。

Deutsche Bank returns at No. 2 with 15 positions. J.P. Morgan advances one rung to share third place with Morgan Stanley, which holds steady in that spot. These firms capture 13 positions apiece — that’s an increase of three for the former and two for the latter. UBS vaults from No. 8 to No. 5 after nearly doubling its team total, from five to nine.

Fifteen firms are represented on this year’s roster. Click on the领导者in the navigation table at right to view the full list.

David Aserkoff, who guides the J.P. Morgan crew from third place to finish on top for the first time in Central & Eastern Europe, Middle East & Africa Equity Strategy, thinks money managers that invest in the region have little to fear from either of the two issues cited above.

“我们的经济学家已经清楚地说，我们希望希腊留在欧元区。双方拥有更多的待命，而不是来自格雷克利特，“他坚持不懈。“然而，在希腊的叶子中，我们期望在Ceemea市场的几乎没有蔓延。”

For one thing, the London-based team leader says, this particular investor base is distinct — “much more special situations and total return oriented than emerging-markets equity oriented” is how he puts it. Plus, the economic overlap is small, with Greece being more closely linked to the euro zone than emerging Europe. Even the connection to developed Europe is small, with Greece accounting for only about 2 percent of the economic union’s real gross domestic product growth, Aserkoff adds.

Similarly, “we would downplay the impact of the first Fed hike on CEEMEA markets for a few core reasons,” he says. “First, most investors are expecting it. Second, the likely timing of the hike continues to be pushed back. Finally, our view is that the Fed will raise rates gradually and to a lower rate than most investors expect given the sluggish growth and lower inflation trajectory of the U.S. economy.”

分析师敦促客户超重中欧和火鸡，分别加速增长和有吸引力的估值，它们是中立的南非and Turkey. The team recommends underweighting stocks in the Middle East and North Africa as well as Russia, primarily on oil price volatility.

然而，投资者认为有一个潜在的上行程序：“更严格的美联储可以推动梅纳银行的资产产量，”阿瑟夫夫相信。“他们可能是这个赢家。”

That’s true, says Yavuz Uzay, captain of the BofA Merrill squad that rises one rung to capture its first top appearance in Financials. “Potentially higher U.S. rates will be positive for most banks in the Gulf region, where currencies are pegged to the dollar and the monetary framework is indirectly set by the Fed,” he explains. “We believe Saudi Arabian banks are prime beneficiaries for this reason.”

Uzay and his associates are also bullish on financial institutions in the United Arab Emirates, thanks largely to rising sustainable dividends. Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank and First Gulf Bank are among the lenders that the London-based squad is urging investors to buy.

Beyond the banks little else seems promising in the region at the moment — especially now that the price of oil has begun to slide, according to Simon Kitchen, leader of the EFG-Hermes team that vaults from third place to land in the winner’s circle for the first time in Middle East & North Africa Equity Strategy.

“MENA markets, especially those in the Gulf, have become positively correlated with oil prices over the past year, so a fall in oil prices would be bad for those markets,” the Cairo-based crew chief says. “Economies in Morocco andEgyptwill benefit from lower oil prices, and this should support their stock markets in the long run.”

Egypt’s economy expanded at a rate of 5.6 percent year over year in the fiscal first half, the government reported in May, but that torrid pace is not likely to continue, Kitchen says, because the country is being held back by an overvalued currency. “Unless the foreign exchange market begins to operate smoothly, we are unlikely to see lasting recoveries in the economy and the stock market,” he declares.

研究人员也在沙特阿拉伯看见沙特阿拉伯，至少在近期。“我们认为沙特阿拉伯可能在6月中旬开放外国人的情况下表现不佳。我们将市场视为昂贵，在前前期收益大约16次，特别是对油价的不确定性，“他解释道。“然而，从长远来看，沙特阿拉伯的开放是一个重大发展，将催化在梅纳地区的机构投资者兴趣。”亚博赞助欧冠

另一个国家的长期前景显得亮的国家，即使临时前景远不那么玫瑰色是南非，其中能源短缺和劳动力纠纷在过去几年中受到了经济增长的阻碍。在南部/撒哈拉以南非洲股权战略中的第三次直接外观，汇聚停电的滚动停电的风险可能仍然很高，报道，Joha Morris报道了第三次直接外观。“然而，展望2016年底和2017年初，我们期望从[公用事业] ESKOM和私营部门来源的新能力增加 - 可再生能源和热电联产 - 帮助缓解压力，”他说。

即便如此,“有相当多的uncertainties regarding the growth outlook,” the Johannesburg-based analyst cautions. “We see domestic GDP growth normalizing to 2 percent in 2015, after just 1.5 percent in 2014, and to 2.2 percent in 2016. This implies the growth trajectory remains substantially slower than the average 4 percent recorded in the decade to 2008.”

Ongoing infrastructure bottlenecks, particularly in electricity, and tighter macro policies — both fiscal and monetary — are likely to constrain economic growth over the forecast horizon to a pace that is below the nation’s GDP growth potential of roughly 2.5 percent per year, Morris adds.

That doesn’t mean there aren’t opportunities to make money. The Fed and the South African Reserve Bank are likely to enter a tightening cycle in the second half, he says, and in such an environment, defensive sectors have tended to outperform cyclical and rate-sensitive stocks.

莫里斯报道，“我们建议购买具有低收入测试版的高质量股票和具有吸引力的相对价值。”“我们是超重的银行和一般金融，运输，烟草，饮料，食品生产商，上端现金零售商和技术，媒体和电信。”

His colleague Uzay affirms the bullish outlook on the nation’s financial names. “We think South African banks are attractive versus regional peers due to high earnings visibility and stable returns,” says the London-based analyst, citing Barclays Africa Group, Capitec Bank and FirstRand in particular.

Uzay去年加入了Bofa Merrill从文艺复兴的资本，他是土耳其股权研究的负责人。他腾出的帖子由Michael Harris填补，他在19年以上离开了Bofa Merrill，是新兴EMEA研究团队调查历史上最常见的分析师之一。去年哈里斯领导或联合领导的四名船员首先在中欧和东欧，中东和非洲股权战略中完成;新兴欧洲股权战略;中东＆北非股权战略（斯蒂芬Pettyfer）;和土耳其股权战略。今年，他指导先前未纳过去的风格群岛在后一类中的第1队。

Slowing economic growth, rising unemployment and plummeting consumer confidence helped make the June parliamentary elections a referendum on the policies ofPresident Recep Tayyip Erdogan。他的裁决正义和发展党称为AKP，遭受了重大挫折，占据了41％的投票。它要么必须与另一方加入武力以创造联盟，或者冒险其他方可以团结并形成股东AKP的风险。

“To turn the economy around, a stabilization of political sentiment and a continued shift of exports to compensate for lost markets in Iraq and Russia needs to occur,” Harris explains. “On exports, that shift is ongoing as exports to Europe were up 13 percent in euro terms in the first quarter and exports to the U.S. were up 14 percent in dollar terms.”

Unlike the situation for many other emerging economies, the London-based team leader notes, Turkey’s need for reforms is less to enable it to grow than to foster sustainable expansion. “Political calm should be enough to restart the cycle, which is otherwise helped enormously by lower oil prices,” he says. “But if we get continued uncertainty, then the economy and Turkish assets will likely continue to struggle.”

One issue on which this group breaks with the consensus regards the impact of a Fed rate increase. “Our message is that Turkey is much less vulnerable than perceived to Fed hikes, but if the dollar appreciates sharply versus the euro and most other currencies, then the dollar debt in the corporate sector — if not quickly swapped to euros — will leave Turkey facing a period of painful adjustment,” he advises. “If we’re right on Turkey not being as exposed as feared, our guess is that the lowly valued banks will be the prime market drivers.”

The 2015 Emerging EMEA Research Team reflects the opinions of more than 500 individuals at 343 institutions that collectively manage an estimated $296 billion in emerging EMEA equities and $145 billion in regional debt. For more information on how this ranking was compiled, click on方法。