Scotland Wonders What to Choose: Independence or Security

“Choose a life. Choose a job. Choose a career. Choose a family. Choose a fucking big television.”

—Irvine Welsh, author of火车糕点

Last September Scotland chose marriage. Or, rather, just more than half of it did. Out of a voter participation rate of 84.5 percent, just more than 55 percent voted to keep up its roughly 300-year-old union with England. Now that the U.K. — read London — is mulling a break-up of its own from the European Union, Scotland is considering divorce yet again.

On Tuesday, Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister and the leader of the separatist Scottish National Party, had something to say aboutU.K.待欧盟成员的待决公投在布鲁塞尔的新闻发布会上。“在[苏格兰的许多普通人中的愤怒之地在[欧盟的案件中，对欧盟成员的投票]可以为另一个独立公投产生一个喧嚣，这可能是不可阻挡的另一个独立公投，”她说。

For one, if the U.K. were to base its decision on a simple majority of the nationwide vote, as Prime Minister David Cameron is proposing, the overall result could clash with the inclinations of any one of the country’s four regions — England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland — drowning out local say on the matter. For this reason, Sturgeon is calling for “double majority” voting, in which majorities in all four regions would have to vote in favor of withdrawal from the EU before the U.K. could pull out. For its part, when it comes to the EU, Sturgeon’s Scottish National Party wants in. The SNP upped its head count in the House of Commons from six to 56; all but three of Scotland’s 59 constituencies elected an SNP candidate. With the SNP in secure control, the Scottish independence issue is likely to come up again, and a vote for Brexit from the EU would move that needle further.

Brexit相关的担忧是苏格兰如何讨论它的最新话语 - 作为U.K的成员（或前一），欧洲 - 以及其变化的身份。上周我在爱丁堡，苏格兰首都和欧洲第四大资产管理中心度过了几天。一般来说，鉴于我作为金融编辑的职位，我的新闻追求需要与分析师或基金经理交谈，也许是一个略微弄得弄糟的学术。不是那么凌晨。我度假了，花了高质量的时间，在上述epigraph发生的地方。

Leith, the ancient port in Edinburgh’s northern reaches, sets the backdrop for the opening scene of火车糕点而且，爱丁堡本土威尔士威尔士1993年关于海洛因用户的一个氏族，在全球范围内推广了1996年的同名电影，搭入90年代中间的英国人声音轨道。如今，世界上几个城市邮政区地区的情况如同，利斯有gone the way of lofts turned into “event spaces,”gastropubs serving up the likes of haggis tacos and twee bars pouring handcrafted cocktails in little teacups. It was in the last where I talked up the state of affairs with a local dental nurse. Originally a graduate in film, given the little work available in the field in her hometown of Edinburgh (never mind in a bona fide cinematic mecca like New York or Los Angeles), she set sail for a stint teaching English in South Korea. After having enough of being a big fish in a small booze-filled pond that constitutes many a 20-something expat’s life, she returned to Edinburgh and retrained as a dental nurse. A few ciders into the evening, I figured it was prime time for political discussion.

“所以，”我问道，“你是什么让整个苏格兰分裂的东西？”她回应了，“你是什么意思从U.K.我肯定了。

She suddenly leaped into a tirade more laden with invective than, well, much of the dialogue in火车糕点: “Westminster tried to console us by saying they would take care of us! But how would they do it? They have the money we give to them while so much of us here are strugglin’!”

A chief revenue driver for Scotland, and in turn, the U.K., is oil. Forty years ago this June, North Sea oil production kicked off for the first time at the Argyll field, roughly 190 miles southeast of Aberdeen. Ever since, oil has been a steady stream of revenue to the U.K. Treasury. Depressed oil prices — and tax cuts handed down from London intended to sustain production in the face of the slump — have curbed those coffers. Official U.K. projections estimate domestic oil revenues for 2015 to be roughly £700 million ($1.08 billion), a decrease of nearly three quarters from £2.6 billion in 2014 and far below the 10-digit figures earlier this decade. As has been a general complaint in Scotland during the past four decades, Sturgeon’s SNP has accused London of taking more than its fair share of the funds, although during the campaign leading to last month’s U.K. parliamentary elections, the SNP stayed largely clear of the topic. Before the secession referendum last autumn, however, oil majors voiced skittishness about the possibility of an independent Scotland over concerns of regulations and uncertainty. And that was not long after oil began its lengthy slump in July 2014. Scottish oil fields have pared some 5,000 jobs, and that number only stands to rise. Without the cash flow of oil, Scotland may be forced to turn elsewhere for support — like London. Indeed, the U.K. Conservatives’ energy policy includes the Infrastructure Act of 2015, which requires that the central government come up with a plan to sustain and maximize North Sea oil production, including a further round of tax cuts.

Essentially, low oil prices may coax Scotland to choose comfort. Although its relationship with England has involved quite a bit of give-and-take, it provides a cushion of some security.

在Twitter上关注Anne Szustek@ the59thstbridge..

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