对于抱怨由能源补贴造成的扭曲和赤字的经济学家，2014年是一个致力于致力。去年至少有27个国家限制了他们的燃料补贴计划，或考虑这样做，有利于将国内价格与全球价格保持一致。但最近油价反弹threatens to undo much of that good work.
“The staying power of governments with regards to fuel subsidy reforms depends on the trajectory of international oil prices,” says Stephen Bailey-Smith, head of Africa research at Standard Bank Group in London, and his research colleagues.
Global crude oil prices fell by more than 50 percent in the six months between July 2015 and this January, making it possible for governments to remove costly energy subsidies without hitting consumers’ pocketbooks. Many countries took advantage of that window of opportunity. Ghana, an oil exporter, began raising domestic fuel prices in July 2014 and announced plans this month to eliminate subsidies by September. In oil-importing Indonesia,President Joko Widodoeliminated fuel subsidies in January.
“有一个good argument for subsidy reform for both oil exporters and oil importers when the price falls,” says Jim Krane, fellow in energy studies at the Baker Institute for Public Policy at Rice University in Houston. Exporters can point to lower oil revenues to justify the need to tighten public spending and require consumers to pay a little more for gasoline and electricity, he contends. “They need to reform subsidies,” adds Krane, “to send price signals to domestic consumers to reduce their consumption.” For oil importers, savvy governments can capitalize on the tumbling cost of crude oil to trim energy subsidies without the public perceiving steep price hikes.
The savings can be substantial. The International Monetary Fund estimates that governments have减少能源补贴by a total of $190 billion a year since 2011. Trimming such largesse can rejuvenate economies by reducing budget deficits and freeing up funds for public expenditure on things the economy urgently needs, such as infrastructure, education and poverty-reduction programs. Indonesia’s Widodo plans to use the government’s subsidy savings to ramp up infrastructure spending by about 60 percent over the next five years. He hopes the shift will boost the country’s growth rate to 7 percent a year from last year’s 5 percent pace.
Although subsidies are often justified as helping the poor, most of the benefits actually go to well-off consumers, who are more likely to drive cars and consume more electricity in their large homes. “It’s a very expensive way of reaching the poor, because there is so much that leaks out to the middle class,” says Franziska Ohnsorge, chief economist of the World Bank’s Development Prospects Group. India removed diesel fuel subsidies in October 2014 and is trimming petroleum subsidies by 50 percent in the fiscal year that began April 1; it is providing cash transfers to low-income households to compensate. Such reforms have already boosted investor confidence and triggered capital inflows, the banksaid in its flagship forecast,Global Economic Prospects，本月发布。
Subsidy reform is facing a growing challenge from the recent rebound in oil prices, though. Since bottoming out in January at $45 a barrel, Brent crude oil has already risen to about $66. “That’s the real breaking point,” says Ohnsorge. As prices climb, she adds, “there is a risk that some of these reforms slip.” Indonesia has already delayed a price increase on fuel sold by state-owned oil company Pertamina that had been scheduled for May, to match the global oil price rise. It’s not yet clear whether the delay will prove to be temporary or whether it marks a return to subsidization.
“这是一个聪明的政策工具，以利用全球石油价格允许价格自由浮动的商品价格隐藏您的商品价格下跌的补贴改革，”贝克研究所的Krane说。“但随着净价篮板，可能会迟早发生，公众开始弄清楚你所做的一切。”
If oil prices continue to rise sharply, as they did in 2009, governments will be more inclined to reintroduce subsidies or shelve plans to reduce them, contends Standard Bank’s Bailey-Smith. “The reintroduction of subsidies will further tie down funds governments might have otherwise used in providing a structural framework that can foster longer term economic growth,” Standard Bank says.
在非洲的主要石油生产经济中，只有尼日利亚才没有删除补贴。政府的补贴法案估计为每年约34亿美元，或公共支出的约10％。
在富含石油中东的能源补贴特别沉重。例如，在科纳克兰的说法，科威特的电力约为每千瓦时的大约十分之七，而美国大约12美分。在卡塔尔电力和淡淡的水中为公民免费。伊朗也许是最糟糕的罪犯。根据国际能源机构的说法，政府在2013年将近840亿美元的石油和天然气和电力补贴（可获得数据的最新年份）。
Krane说，政治家们经常贸易补贴政治支持，这使得他们删除了这么困难。“他说，”有长期的政治收益和短期政治袭击“。他估计，如果政府能够在短期内击中其流行度，拆除补贴应提供经济和政治股息。一些国家，特别是也门和尼泊尔，2014年燃料价格徒步旅行面临公共动乱。也门去年9月部分地修复了补贴，而尼泊尔修改了其计划，以基于国际价格趋势。许多人口根本不相信他们的政府实施其他有利于穷人的方案来代替补贴，如现金转移计划。
Subsidies are dangerous because they create a political constituency for maintaining them, says Krane. “When you introduce them, you basically sow the seeds of future political opposition to their removal,” he concludes.