随着联邦公开市场委员会今天坚持“其认为，目前联邦基金利率的目标范围仍然合适“但仍然在今年晚些时候定位在十年上首次提高利率，市场越来越关注美联储的新汇率制度如何形成。在过去的几周里，我们已经有关这个新制度的更多线索以及可能开始的时候。以下是对美联储政策权衡的四个问题。
FOMC在规范利率之前需要看到什么？
联邦储备椅Janet Yellen对规范化率的前提非常明确。首先，劳动力市场需要继续创造就业机会和减少松弛。工作增益超过20万，劳动力参与率向上培训和工资增长的迹象是关键指标。至于通货膨胀，FOMC必须“合理信心”，它将在中期返回美联储的2％的目标 - 大约三到五年。这并不意味着通货膨胀实际上必须在美联储的目标范围内 - 刚刚在这种方向上清楚地走向。在近50年来，委员会在近50年来近50年来延伸近50年的百分之百倍，我们希望确保通货膨胀的任何上升趋势在前进之前都是持续和强势。
步伐将进行正常化吗？
During the most recent tightening cycle, the FOMC mechanically raised rates by a quarter of a percent at each meeting. Prominent Fed representatives continue to hammer away at what they call a misguided premise that the coming tightening cycle will resemble previous ones. The Fed has stressed that this cycle will be slow and gradual and may include pauses along the way.
美联储副主席Stanley Fischer最近谈到了慢慢逐渐的正常化步伐。In fact, at a recent lecture at the Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya, a college in a suburb outside Tel Aviv, Fischer seemingly went out of his way to emphasize this point: “You say ‘liftoff’ and you think of rockets that go into orbit after ten seconds. That’s not what we are talking about. ‘Liftoff’ says we’re going straight up with the interest rate. Well, we’re going up with the interest rate, then along, and then another little jump. That’s not liftoff; that’s crawling.”
How much rate normalization will be enough?
The minutes of recent FOMC meetings reveal that the group has spent considerable time deliberating the neutral rate of policy. The accounts of these discussions portray a general consensus around terminal rates in the future being lower than in the past. Fed forecasts have been consistent with this as well. The historical average for long-run policy is around 4.25 percent. The March round of rates forecast by FOMC members had the consensus long-term policy rate at 3.75 percent, however.
When will the FOMC embark on its new “slow and low” regime?
几乎所有FOMC成员都公开了他们在2015年开始规范化的愿望。今年的决心肯定会被第一季度的迟钝的时间测试。然而，FOMC对2015年的行动倾向似乎仍然完好无损。在4月份会议中，17名参与者的15次仍然预计今年增加。
考虑到这些要点，我希望经济数据加强并为12月的比例提供开放。这次初步增加将在2016年举行会议或两次暂停，以允许市场完全消化制度的变化。这种模式取决于劳动力市场的改善和美国稳定的通货膨胀。经济将继续每月增加200,000多名工作岗位。更重要的是，越来越多的缩小迹象：参与率开始趋势向上，以及一些工资增长的措施也在更高。通货膨胀的一些措施已经转向美联储的2％目标，但美联储的青睐措施，核心个人消费支出（PCE）落后于此。我希望核心PCE在夏天稳定，并在秋天的某个时候向上转动。
Shehriyar Antia是宏观洞察集团的创始人和首席市场战略师，该公司是纽约的投资战略公司。在创立MIG之前，他在纽约美联储银行的一家高级市场分析师致力于定量宽松计划和货币政策。
Get more onmacro。