During the third quarter, U.S. equity prices fell 10 percent for the first time in more than three years, leaving the market at lower year-on-year levels for only the second time since 2009. The recent falls came on the back of two major concerns from China:the Shanghai Stock Exchange’s swoon和元的贬值。
有了这么多的美国公司现在大量参与国际业务，世界第二大经济体的麻烦并不奇怪导致投资者一些焦虑。显而易见的输家是商品生产商，而是市场波动增加和风险厌恶蔓延，投资者在曾经受欢迎的医疗保健小组中销售控股。本季度唯一的公用事业仍留在阳性领土。
所有这一切都让投资者询问自2011年以来的美国股市的价格。挫折是一个购买机会还是更严重的衰退开始？
要回答这个问题，让我们首先看利润。与股价急剧上涨相比，我们在J.P.摩根资产管理的利润预期并没有在过去三个月里真正变化。我们继续减少对全球增长较弱和较低商品价格暴露的公司预测。特别是，我们的能量预测已经下降，现在只占2014年的三分之一水平。
科技公司也面临着附近的一个较弱的-term operating environment as smartphone sales slow and the personal computer market remains in decline. But in many other industry groups, the trend is much better. Most management teams that we meet with are pretty confident about demand in the U.S., and Europe seems to be slowly improving as well. The strong U.S. dollar is having a sharp impact on foreign earnings, although on that front, the severity likely peaked in the quarter that just ended. So we think that with commodity profits already very depressed and the U.S. economy in reasonably good shape, the near-term outlook will start improving again.
我们的长期预测在过去几个月里没有移动过多。We think that the benefits of globalization that have accrued to so many U.S. multinational companies will persist for the foreseeable future, although we are carefully watching competitive threats from both low-cost developed countries after recent currency moves, as well as emerging winners in the developing world. So far, we haven’t seen too much cause for concern. We still perceive a meaningful opportunity for energy and materials profitability to bounce back along with commodity prices over the next couple of years. In some segments of the technology sector, we see more pressure ahead on profits for companies that are likely to lose out from the growth of the public cloud, while smartphone sales, a huge driver of profits in recent years, are also not likely to grow much more. Overall, however, we think there are enough positives to keep profits increasing at a high-single-digit rate over the next five to seven years.
如果这是正确的，市场目前的估值大约16倍的前锋收入对于我们来说是合理的，尽管价格从8月中旬和9月下旬再次达到更具吸引力的水平。明显的风险是，认为这一经济周期有多年来，我们是错误的，而是世界经济的滑倒恢复了衰退。信贷市场开始表明这是一种越来越多的可能性，尽管我们尚未看到其他警告标志。在美国外面，欧洲的前景似乎有点亮，虽然来自亚洲和亚洲的新闻拉丁美洲仍然黯淡。与此同时，较低的长期利率赞成股市债券的股票市场。
因此，我们期望合理回报，尽管随着经济周期的持续增加而导致波动性增加。
保罗Quinsee是美国股票的首席投资官J.P.摩根资产管理in New York.
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