Markets, Volatility and Playing Chicken with the Debt Ceiling

随着美国的预期达到其11月3日的借贷限制，房子共和党人在混乱中一直在混乱，因为他们试图寻找一个众议院演讲者John Boehner的继承人，并在周二有条件地为自己提供自己。鉴于国会的骚动，直接解决这一潜在的财政崩溃似乎是不可能的。自然问题是，投资者应该如何担心即将到来的债务上限截止日期？

The short answer is, It depends, and that uncertainty could increase volatility in the markets in the weeks ahead.

我们在PIMCO的基线视图是，国会将及时提高债务限制，以避免任何可能的美国。为什么？Boehner, who plans to step down later this year, can bring a “clean” debt ceiling bill to the floor and pass it with a majority of Democrats and a minority of Republicans, without having to worry about the fallout from his party’s more conservative flank. Whereas Boehner will certainly try to extract concessions in negotiations under way with the White House, we believe he is nevertheless prepared to move a clean debt limit bill — even in the likely event that a broader deal with the White House never materializes. After all, the last thing Boehner wants is for his final action in Congress and ensuing legacy to be a U.S. default.

尽管如此，所谓的左尾事件的可能性，其中有一个政策错误 - 技术违约或更糟 - 随着我们更接近11月3日的截止日期而没有解决方案。从休息的回报之日起，国会只有八天才通过债务限制增加，这不允许大量的国会抖动。增加到高戏剧演讲者的种族以及瑞安或别人越来越多地替换博纳的可能性，可能会感到强迫强迫更加极端的结果，并且债务限制违规的机会肯定不会偏远。

市场对可能的违约态度相对较大，尽管国库券的收益率已经开始走高。投资者仍然似乎从其他关键事件中提出了他们的提示，例如美国经济数据和新兴市场的发展。在以前的债务上限下降期间，当投资者担心他们可能会按时偿还时，一些短期财务收益率飙升。

如果过去是序言,然而,我们应该开始ee markets react more as we get closer to the deadline without a deal. During similar situations in 2011 and 2013, we saw a significant sell-off across both the equity and bond markets in the weeks leading up to the deadline. For instance, the Standard & Poor’s 500 index declined by more than 16 percent before the 2011 debt ceiling resolution, whereas it fell by 3.8 percent in the two weeks before a deal was announced in 2013. What if Congress does not come up with a deal by the deadline? Although there are questions about whether the Treasury Department could mitigate the potential impact of a debt ceiling breach by prioritizing certain payments after the Treasury’s small cash cushion is exhausted, the market reaction would nevertheless be extreme — and potentially catastrophic.

虽然投资者比在先前的剧集中更好地做好了更好的准备，但从我们的金融体系的管道开始，债务上限泄露仍然存在重大的敲击效果。受影响国权国的延迟兴趣和期限支付将是一次考虑，投资者组合和相应的回购协议所拥有的财政证券的流动性也可能受到损害。更重要的是，如果没有立即解决的问题，这可能导致一些问题询问美国的圣诞老人的储备货币状况，这为美国的货币和财政政策提供了重大的灵活性。

这种可怕的情景不是我们的基础案例。我们认为，国会将及时提高借贷限制，尽管在第11个小时，但才能在一些相应的市场波动之后。鉴于华盛顿的混乱现在，并且时钟耗尽，尾部事件 - 一种情况，其中债务上限没有提出，而出现极端的市场波动 - 不应该被忽视。

Libby Cantrill是纽约行政办公室执行副总裁，在那里她帮助监测，分析和协调公司对公共政策的回应，包括监管和立法问题;杰罗姆施德里德是纽波特海滩，加利福尼亚州，办公室和短期和资助服务台负责人的董事总经理;at atPacific Investment Management Co.

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