The Power of the Patient Investor

Investing requires patience. Paying attention to valuation generally leads to superior investment returns, usually sooner rather than later. But manic markets like the Nifty 50 stocks of the late 1960s and early ’70s, the TMT (tech, media and telecom) craze of the late ’90s and the定量宽松诱发的狂潮of the past several years can be punishing to value-focused investors. It may be helpful to remind oneself that the years following 1972 and 1999 clearly rewarded value investors. Better still, it may also be helpful to put the long waiting time into perspective. After all, investment should be a long-term endeavor.

The stock market — that fascinating, bipolar entity — will periodically provide us with the opportunity to purchase the product of years’ worth of toil, aggravation, pain, industry and productive value, and to do so in a millisecond and at a small fraction of the capital costs. Wildly bifurcated markets, while exceptionally frustrating, are the best environments for finding valuable assets priced as amazing bargains.

Let’s start with hydroelectric dams. Electricity production capacity that is pollution-free, emits no温室气体，具有几乎零的可变成本，作为分支机构，提供灌溉和洪水管理显然是一个有价值的财产。但坝的建造昂贵，往往有争议地争议。至于是否值得成本或政治和工程麻烦，我们是不可知的。但我们看到了机会。投资者集体恐惧症Brazil和俄罗斯已经把股票of two of the world’s premier hydroelectric franchises, Eletrobras and RusHydro, on the auction block for 15 percent and 35 percent of book value, respectively.

Another opportunity afforded the patient investor exists in the gold mining industry. Conjuring incremental money takes no time at all, if by money we are referring to fiat currencies. Digital trillions require merely a key stroke; patience has been neither required nor exhibited. Conversely, producing an incremental gold coin requires rigorous effort, a lot of capital investment and the patience of a saint. New gold mines generally take more than a decade to find, drill, assess, permit, finance (and divvy the economics among owners, government and other stakeholders), build and begin to operate. There is a reason only a few major mines have been constructed over the past 30 years.

Entering the gold mining business is arguably crazy. Yet a patient investor need not be exposed to the anguish and expense. Here, too, the valuable product of successful exploration — years of toil, fruitful negotiation and massive capital investment — is periodically wholesaled on Wall Street for cents on the dollar. Names that we like in this space are many: Barrick Gold Corp., Centerra Gold, Dundee Precious Metals, Gabriel Resources, Goldcorp, Kinross Gold Corp., Kirkland Lake Gold, Lundin Gold, Newcrest Mining, Northern Dynasty Minerals, NovaGold Resources and Turquoise Hill Resources.

Uranium is next on our list of valuable yet unloved commodities that can result in investing opportunity. Like hydro, uranium is used to produce electricity at an extremely low variable cost and without air pollution or greenhouse gases. Unfortunately (fortunately, for investors?), uranium is relatively scarce and getting more scarce. Consumption has been exceeding mine supply for the past 20 years. According to energy expert Marin Katusa, the annual deficit could be 55 million pounds by 2020. New mines take many years to develop and generally would require much higher uranium prices to justify the investment. How odd, yet fortuitous, that Canada’s Cameco Corp., owner of the world’s best uranium mines, has had its shares smacked by the market, bouncing along at the lowest price levels seen since 2004.

讨价还价清单很长。有基于犹他州的Skywest航空公司，其中许多最大的美国航空公司合作，每天运营近1,800个航班。在过去的18年中，Skywest的账面价值乘以12次，但其股份在1998年的同一水平上交易 - 大约是他们的账面价值的一半。同样，在1999年的电信狂热的高度，KT公司（以前韩国电信）ADRS以75美元出售。患者投资者现在有机会支付不到13美元的份额，或者为同样的特许经营权支付份额或三分之二的账面价值。

今天投资者有一个无与伦比的机会，积累了世界上一些最有价值的，稀缺的难以复制和理想的企业和资源，巨额折扣。请记住，这里的耐心不仅是一种美德，也是一个要求。

David Iben is chief investment officer and lead portfolio manager for Tampa Bay, Florida–basedKopernik全球投资者.