Daily Agenda: Greece Approaches Worst-Case Scenario

希腊woke up this morning to capital controls and a holiday for banks and the Athens exchange after the Syriza-led government elected to choose a referendum next weekend over an outright acceptance or rejection of its creditors’ terms. The market reaction has been dramatic. German Bunds have risen sharply as investors, lulled by the near constant back-and-forth rhetoric between Athens and Brussels, suddenly faces the reality of a possible worst-case scenario. German ten-year sovereign debt yields compressed by more than 20 basis points in trading early today as equities sold off throughout the Continent. The rapidly deteriorating situation threatens to raise market volatility and pull portfolio managers back to their screens prematurely.

波多黎各寻求与债权人的交易。Puerto Rico’s governor Alejandro García Padilla stated bluntly that the commonwealth will be unable to meet its debt obligations, in excess of $72 billion. Padilla will address his constituents today at 5 pm local time to discuss the crisis two days before the end of the fiscal year. As a nonstate, the island territory does not have the legal recourse to bankruptcy protection, nor does it possess implicit backing by the federal government, making any restructuring subject to complex negotiations. The majority of the commonwealth’s debt is publicly held in mutual funds and private accounts.

Dudley says September rate hike likely.In an interview in theFinancial Timesthat ran over the weekend, New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley commented that an initial联邦公开市场委员会收紧搬迁在9月，可能会增加蚂蚁升级可以通过软基本数据延迟。虽然非宣布对达德利的确切时序达德利表示信心，但美联储在今年年底前采取了福利。

中国股市enter correction.今天上午在交易中推出超过3％后，上海综合指数达到了本月早些时候达到的高度低22％。许多分析师认为，作为纠正的技术定义，将撤退为20％或更高。一些市场观察者归因于估值的快速回调，只需在自己之前得到。在星期一的客户处于客户的一份报告中，Waverly Advisors策略师Adam Grimes评论说：“中国的令人惊叹的衰退是在该市场上的特定市场动态，限制和投资者心理学的反映，”加入“，不要推断这一举动并期待它具有深远的意义。“GRIMES补充说，香港上市的股票可能会接近一个低点，使这是进入该市场的有吸引力的时间。另外，当地媒体来源正在报告中国证券监督管理委员会今天与银行和经纪人会面，讨论初始公开发行的暂停暂停，以便静音波动。

GE销售单位。General Electric announced today that one of the first transactions in its recently announced massive divestiture program is about to get underway. The company has agreed to offload as agreed to sell its fleet financing business units in the U.S., Mexico, Australia and New Zealand to Element Financial Corporation of Canada for $6.9 billion. Separately, GE signed a memorandum of understanding for a sale of its European fleet franchise to Arval, a division of BNP Paribas and an alliance partner of Element, for an undisclosed amount.

Chinazeroes in on SOEs.周日，中国政府监督机构国家审计署宣布，它正在调查14个国有企业的伪造财务报表，在北京当局正在进行的竞选活动中，彻底腐败。西金平总统施用的运动已经陷入困境，在一项允许政府同时遏制贪污和巩固政治权力的过程中陷入困境。

Portfolio Perspective: Complacent Investors Caught Off Guard by Greece-BarclaysFrançoisCabau

希腊总理Alexis Tsipras惊讶yone by calling for a referendum to be held on July 5. The referendum will ask the Greeks whether or not they accept the latest proposal presented by the institutions holding the nation’s debt. The Greek government supports a no vote. This surprising decision comes after meaningful progress had been achieved over the past two weeks on reform measures that would unlock the remaining funds of the second, €7.2 billion ($8 billion), bailout. Most policymakers and markets expected that a deal on a program extension was within reach before the current one expires tomorrow. As our latest Barclays client survey suggests, markets have been complacent about Greek risk. A majority of investors believe that a Greek exit from the euro will be a small negative for markets, and only 23 percent expect a Greek exit to happen within the next three months. While there is still a slight chance that the referendum is called off if it is found unconstitutional, we think that this is unlikely.

对Y是投票的胜利可能会引发国家统一政府。如果是票据，我们认为希腊总理Tsipras很可能是整个政府将下台，即使也是可能的，例如其他选择，如Tsipras留在权力并接受该机构的交易。在Tsipras下降后，中度锡鲁萨议员可以加入其他中等派对，如帕萨克，波西亚和ND进入一个国家统一联盟。新政府将根据公民投票给出的任务重新签订机构。在这种情况下，Snap选举将仍然是可能的可能性，但直到夏天之后可能不会。市场反应可能会在公投后立即积极。然而，波动性可能会保持提升，直到建立了新的和稳定的政府，并批准了一个计划。

没有投票将退出最有可能的结果。在没有方案的支持下，潜在的出口方案将类似于阿根廷的2001年-02危机，该危机也开始使用存款控制，而是 - 在没有国际支持的计划的情况下 - 迅速恶化进入更严格的控制和强迫货币转换。我们认为，欧洲机构需要回应这种情景，强有力的制度改革议程，否则可以重新调整风险。

FrançoisCabau是一位经济学人Barclaysin London.