July marked the one-year anniversary of the sudden plunge in oil prices, from roughly $105 to $45 per barrel. This has been no ordinary price decline. The drop precipitated a change in a long-term feature of the global crude market. Saudi Arabia decided last year to chase market share rather than serve in its traditional role as the regulator of oil prices through the组织石油出口国（欧佩克）。
因此，美国而不是沙特，生产者的产量可能会在不久的将来确定油价。现在的问题似乎是，多远和多么快 - 如果全部 - 价格会上升？
今天的原油叙述开始了美国页岩存款，这使美国允许跨越俄罗斯和沙特阿拉伯在石油生产中。在6月份的研究室，纽约花旗集团的全球商品研究总部的Edward Morse，称为“几十年来石油市场中最受政治中断的局面”。在对这一变化的反应中，沙特阿拉伯在几十年来愿意降低控制价格后，决定尽可能多地卖出。该决定加入供应援助美国生产帮助创造，触发了去年的油价上的熊市。在今年的时候，沙特阿拉伯的产量每天超过1000万桶，触摸记录水平。根据国际能源机构（IEA）的数据，其他欧佩克成员遵循。
如果没有愿意进入并充当挥杆制片人的高产出市场，就像沙特阿拉伯曾经一样，市场力量现在被控制。当价格下降时，具有更高成本的生产商可能会关闭运营，平衡供需，而不是依赖沙特人这样做。现在正在进行这一过程。根据Baker Hughes的情况下，在油价下降的反应下降，随着油价下降的反应，连续29周，连续29周下降，并计数，其每周钻探更新是该行业被接受的指标。
Prognosticators like Morse are no longer entertaining thoughts of $20-per-barrel prices, which was considered possible in February, when crude oil was trading below $50 per barrel. With Brent, West Texas Intermediate and other crude oil benchmarks hovering around $60 for the past couple of months, market watchers are trying now to determine whether supply has already fallen enough to balance demand, or if more needs to go.弗朗西斯科·普通那head of global commodities and derivatives research for Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research in New York, believes that crude prices are likely to slip in the next few months. “There’s a lot of players living on the edge, running out of cash flow and holding on in the hope that a price recovery will bail them out,” he says. “We need to see some of these players disappear or merge.”
一个可能有助于整合的一个因素是期望联邦储备的意志今年提高利率那boosting financing costs for U.S. producers, he says. Blanch believes that, after a brief drop to knock out the highest-cost producers, crude will rise over the next two years, but to no higher than $70 a barrel. Morse, in his June research note, suggested that prices would need to remain below $75 to discourage high-cost producers.
短期价格下降的另一种可能的催化剂是伊朗石油出口到正规市场的回归。如果正在谈判延长该国的核计划的核果熊果，在此过程中减少对该国的制裁，伊朗可能会迅速出售从3000万到5000万桶的库存，该国已存放在海上的油轮。这可能意味着短期的供应过剩和低价。从长远来看，伊朗回归将清除外国石油公司在该国投资的方式。伊朗在解除制裁后，伊朗有可能每天增加60万桶到全球市场。超越这将需要投资新项目。
其他地缘政治通道包括伊拉克和利比亚，这些潜力低于潜力，如果安全和政治稳定性提高，可以增加市场份额的更多竞争。
On the demand side of the price equation, the crude oil price drop in the past 12 months has复兴消费者的胃口。Demand for crude products touched a five-year low in the second quarter of 2014 but has rebounded, according to the IEA’s JuneOil Market Report。2015年上半年，每日交货平均每天9330万桶，同期同期增长160万。根据美国交通联邦公路管理部门的统计，美国消费者正在驾驶更多地区，2015年第一季度总线上涨3.9％。根据Blanch，需求也来自中国，车辆销售正在上升。
总体而言，石油消耗中的上升驳斥着信仰，流行直到去年的衰退，对原油的需求达到峰值。期望基于汽车的燃油效率，恐惧气候变化令人沮丧的使用和成本下降对可再生energy technologies. The past year shows that consumers are still willing to use more oil when it’s cheap, and that suggests that excess supply in the market could be snapped up and trigger higher costs and a reawakening of drilling activity, says Jeff Bellman, North American energy analyst at TIAA-CREF Asset Management in New York. He expects oil prices to approach $90 a barrel by the end of 2016: “The oil market looks a lot better than what I see as the consensus. The seeds are being sown for a better price recovery.”