J.P. Morgan Tops All-America Fixed-Income Research Team for 6th Year

在7月中旬议院金融服务委员会之前的证词中，联邦储备委员会主席珍妮特·耶伦重申了她在今年的央行可以提高利率的消息，只要美国经济继续加强。然而，尽管她乐观的语气，但耶伦拒绝指定董事会的行为，促使许多市场观察员得出自己的结论。

双层资本联合创始人和传奇债券投资者冈拉克是2015年的小组成员提供alpha.由机构投资者和CNBC亚博篮球怎么下串主办的会议，耶伦作证当天在亚博赞助欧冠纽约举行，他对观众说not to expect an increase before 2016. “When Yellen says she will raise rates if economic growth improves, people hear ‘she will raise rates.’ But that’s not what she said,” the CEO insisted.

不过，富国证券（Wells Fargo Securities）信贷研究主管李布拉丁（Lee Brading）表示，他的团队认为，政策制定者将在9月份小幅上调利率他说：“我认为，很多人都支持‘让我们结束这次25个基点的加息吧’，但我相信更大的问题将是后续加息的速度。”。这将取决于exogenous factors,such as China’s economic growth, Greece’s future in the euro zone and the price and supply of oil, adds Brading, who is based in Charlotte, North Carolina.

“我们对发射日期的预测是2015年12月，”高盛（Goldman，Sachs&Co.）驻纽约全球信贷策略主管查尔斯•希梅尔伯格（Charles Himmelberg）反驳道我们认为，9月份的加息需要在6月份的会议上发出更明确的信号，因为我们认为，当美国联邦公开市场委员会（Federal Open Market Committee）9年来首次上调基金利率时，它不想让鹰派感到意外。”

但他不排除美联储可以越早采取行动的可能性。“9月份的徒步旅行可以再次成为我们的基线，如果我们在未来几个月内看到更强大的活动或通胀数据，财务条件的急剧缓解或两者的结合，”Himmelberg解释道。“但我们认为12月的升降日期既有可能更有可能和更好的政策。”

直到美联储遵循与行动的言论，投资者将继续怀疑将发生什么，而且许多人会在销售方面寻求销售方面，以帮助每个新发布的市场数据点的上下文化。他们在最高尊敬的洞察力的公司是J.P. Morgan，它连续第六年引领全美固定收入研究团队。在生产出版结果的57个部门中，J.P. Morgan分析师在49年赚取一个地方 - 比去年一个。

在第四年的第二个地方跑是美国银行Merrill Lynch，其总跳跃四个，对于45岁的公司纪录，威尔斯法戈队将一个梯级上升到3号，即使它的总数在28岁的情况下也是不变的。在巴克莱的损失推动，在失去五个斑点后，将其丢失至第四位，将其留下25。尽管失去了四个位置，但第5号高盛重复，减少其总量为20。

Fourteen firms appear on this year’s roster. Click on the领导者右侧导航表中的链接以查看完整列表。

要查看每个行业排名最靠前的分析师和团队，请单击年度最佳分析师。

另一个著名的金融家,6月下旬卡尔Icahn, raised eyebrows by warning on Twitter that he believes the market is “extremely overheated — especially high-yield bonds.” Peter Acciavatti, who captains the J.P. Morgan group that claims an astonishing 13th straight victory in High-Yield Strategy, begs to differ.

“我不相信高收益债券的表现已经运行其课程，”他说。“今年国债收益率走高，高收益债券很容易表现出其他，比较率敏感的资产类别，如投资级债券。随着美联储的预计今年晚些时候提高利率，并将期望高产债券继续以最优于最固定收入资产课程。“

Acciavati对加息将使市场陷入类似于几年前美联储官员首次提到结束量化宽松政策后的局面的担忧置之不理我们认为影响将很小，目前的市场估值看起来很有吸引力尤其是今天，市场收益率为7%，利差为546个基点，远高于2013年5月初市场进入“减量暴动”时的5%和437个基点的水平。更进一步说，目前的息差将导致违约率接近4%，远高于目前1.7%的违约率、我们对年底1.5%的预测，甚至我们对明年年底3%的预测，届时能源违约率可能会回升。”

Even so, he acknowledges that the sector could suffer collateral damage. “We still expect the market to see outflows from retail mutual funds as the high-yield asset class gets incorrectly lumped in with other, more rate-sensitive asset classes,” the crew chief advises. “This should lead to some temporary weakness but not much more.”

团队对投资者的建议？”在信用状况良好、违约率较低和利率不断上升的情况下，我们认为基金经理应该青睐单B级债券和二次留置权贷款，而不是双B级债券，”Acciavatti说。

他的同事埃里克•贝因斯坦（ericbeinstein）是信贷衍生品（dominiquetoublan）和投资级策略领域的首席执行官，他认为，今年举步维艰的高级别债券正蓄势待发。

In recent months the difference between high yield and investment grade yields has narrowed, a phenomenon driven by trends in the energy sector as well as retail flows, Beinstein explains.

“迄今为止的能源传播更加紧张，因为他们在第四季度有一个强大的抛售，”他说。“这有助于高产率与投资等级的表现，因为能量在高收益指数中具有更高的重量。”

这位驻纽约的分析师补充称，美元走强对高质量发行人的伤害大于对高风险发行人的伤害，因为前者更依赖于全球销售，而后者更依赖于国内收入趋势（不包括能源行业）。“我们认为，下半年投资级别可能会表现出色，贝因斯坦指出：“由于较高的国债收益率比高收益率更能支持投资级利差。

高盛（Goldman Sachs）的希梅尔伯格（Himmelberg）持类似观点相对于投资级别，高收益市场更容易受到面临长期挑战的行业的影响。他指出：“具体而言，在高收益市场上，金属、采矿业和海上钻井业合计约占总面值的6.5%第二，我们认为，今年新股发行量的压力对投资级别的影响大于对高收益率的影响，我们预计，随着下半年新股发行量的放缓，这种技术压力将有所恢复。我们的年终预测意味着，投资级息差将回溯2014年的所有扩大趋势，从而重新审视6月份的紧缩状况，而高收益率息差的恢复将更少，这意味着下半年投资级至高收益率息差将出现减压。”

Wells Fargo’s Brading, who repeats in second place in the Building sector, notes that for high yield to continue to outperform, “we would need to see a material rally from the energy and materials sectors, and current global economic conditions indicate that commodities prices are unlikely to strengthen in the near term. We appreciate high yield’s domestic focus and the relative cushion that the incremental spread component offers in a rising-rate environment; however, the current challenges facing the asset class and yield distribution make portfolio construction increasingly challenging.”

POSTFOLIO管理人员如何利用固有的机会是这样的场景？“我们推荐投资者达到奉承[十年与30年]的投资级债券传播曲线，”Beinstein作出反应。“曲线在第一季度的峰值中已经达到了大约12个基点，我们相信这将继续，因为长期财政收益率上升。总体而言，我们认为，鉴于屈服和蔓延比在一段时间内更具吸引力，美国经济表现良好，差价可能会收紧差价。

Specifically, the J.P. Morgan analysts advise underweighting sectors where spreads are tight and M&A is active — aerospace and defense, consumer products, manufacturing and technology — and overweighting cable and satellite names, subordinated debt of large-cap bank holding companies and pipeline offerings, among others.

“We expect issuance to remain active for the remainder of the year, but somewhat slower than the pace in the first half,” Beinstein says. “This is being driven by M&A, companies raising funds to pay more to shareholders, and also the view by some corporate treasurers that bond yields will likely be higher in a year or two, so it is prudent to issue now. We expect full-year 2015 issuance to be about 15 percent above last year’s record amount of supply.”

Scott Marchakitus, Goldman Sachs’ director of credit research, says his firm recently revised its forecast for investment-grade issuance from $1.2 trillion to $1.3 trillion this year. This demand is “driven primarily by a significant increase in acquisition financing that has already taken place and the continuation of a strong funding pipeline,” he explains. “Although we just passed the $800 billion mark [as of July 14], we think M&A financing and a desire to enhance shareholder returns should keep new supply flowing through year end, albeit at a slightly slower pace than the first half of the year.”

这些新供应的大部分将是消费品；金融服务；卫生保健；总部设在纽约的马查基图斯说，这是一个技术、媒体和电信行业。

特别是金融部门将弥补失去的时间。“Through the second quarter U.S. bank issuance was up 8 percent year over year versus 18 percent for the investment-grade market, so it’s arguably measured versus the record pace overall,” observes Wells Fargo’s James Strecker, who vaults from third place to claim his first appearance in the winner’s circle in Banks. However, with a Fed proposal on total loss-absorbing capacity, or TLAC — a capital-adequacy-ratio requirement included in Basel III — expected in early September, “bank issuance may experience less of its typical second-half slowdown this year,” he adds.

斯特雷克估计，TLAC可能导致美国最大的银行承担额外2830亿美元的优先债务。

That’s not necessarily cause for optimism for fixed-income investors, however. “If U.S. banks were not able to definitively outperform during the first half of 2015 despite being aided by supportive technical and fundamental tailwinds, the prospects are even less likely in the second half, as this positive backdrop is likely to change,” he contends.

Valuations remain stretched, the Charlotte-based analyst adds, and banks are susceptible to underperforming during bouts of volatility and weakness, because they are an efficient vehicle to bring down risk quickly, given the sector’s size and inherent liquidity. “As such, we remain comfortable with our market-weight allocation but reiterate that our bias is for spreads to widen,” he says. “Furthermore, we prefer short-dated debt given that performance has lagged out the curve amid the moves in Treasuries and given that TLAC issuance is likely to be longer dated.”

2015全美固定收益研究团队（All America Fixed Income Research Team）反映了约540家机构2090多位投资组合经理和买方分析师的意见，这些机构监管着约9.6万亿美元的美国固定收益资产。