60-40死了。LONG LIVE 60-40

Has the 60-40 equity/fixed-income portfolio outlived its usefulness? Many wealth managers believe the traditional balanced investment formula is now passé or, at the very least, in need of a major overhaul.

Count Bob Rice, co-founder and managing partner at New York–based Tangent Capital Partners, among the most skeptical. He argues that fixed income no longer performs its insurance function in today’s ultra-low-rate environment.

“债券历来被认为是股票的镇流器，所以他们是下行保护，”米饭解释。“如果股市跌倒，债券市场将改善。”但是，当美国财政部的基准十年票据的收益率徘徊在2％以上的触控时，这是一个高度辩论的主张，他说，“两个和零之间只有这么多数字。数学只是不起作用。“

The other part of the balanced formula —equities- 就像有问题，米竞争。Key valuation metrics such as the Tobin’s Q (a company’s market value divided by the replacement value of its assets), gross domestic product divided by market capitalization and the Shiller cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio are “standing at pretty close to two standard deviations north of the long-term averages,” he says, constraining stocks’ upside potential. “You cannot argue that, historically speaking, stocks aren’t extremely rich right here.”

Stock valuations could go higher, Rice acknowledges, as long as theU.S. Federal Reserve Board保持印刷金钱“广告信息”，但这不太可能发生，给予9月下旬珍士·珍乐队的评论，“她的同事们认为，今年的同事率将适当。鉴于评论，他说，“你如何在60-40个投资组合中证明当有这么多其他的选择需要考虑？”米饭引用活动家投资，全球宏观和股权在经典平衡组合的可能替代方案中的长短策略。他还争辩说，苦恼的债务是在追溯到恩惠的耻骨上。

尽管批评人士像国际扶轮ce, the 60-40 portfolio has staying power. Balanced mutual funds managed $556.5 billion in assets as of late October, according to research firm Thomson Reuters Lipper.

“You can look at the past few years, and the 60-40 has really kind of beaten everything out there,” says Kevin Dorwin, managing principal with Bingham, Osborn & Scarborough, a San Francisco–based registered investment adviser that manages about $3.5 billion. “It’s done a pretty darn good job even after the financial crisis, when everyone had written it off.”

For example, the $25.2 billion Vanguard Balanced Index Fund Investor Shares, which tracks two broad U.S. stock and bond indexes to produce a 60-40 portfolio, has earned an average annual pretax return of 6.3 percent over the past decade. The S&P 500 returned 6.80 annually over that period, whereas the Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Total Return returned 4.76 percent. Although 60-40 funds suffered during the financial crisis, they handily outperformed equities. The Vanguard Balanced Index Fund lost 22 percent in 2008, compared with a 37 percent drop for the Standard & Poor’s 500 index.

Dorwin emphasizes that 60-40 can include foreign, small-cap and value stocks, as well as different types of fixed income. The key is how the adviser structures the allocation, he adds.

Joe Zappia, principal and co-CIO at $3 billion LVW Advisors, a registered investment adviser based in Pittsford, New York, believes 60-40 will continue to work but that advisers and investors who use it need to lower their return expectations. They also need to consider making some significant adjustments to the basic model, he says, something his firm has done for its clients.

LVW deploys a 60-40 allocation with a stock portion includes hedged equity. “The managers we are selecting are using long-short strategies and are in most cases net long about 70 percent,” Zappia says. “In the large-cap area, we are using both a public fund and a hedge fund structure. In small and midcap, we are using a hedge fund structure.”

The firm substitutes a multistrategy approach for roughly half of the traditional 40 percent fixed-income allocation. The multistrategy assets track the credit markets more than the equity markets, Zappia explains. They have included absolute-return hedge funds, catastrophe bonds and master limited partnerships in midstream energy companies, which own processing, transportation and storage infrastructure. The goal of this approach is to invest in assets with differentiated returns that can produce bondlike results with less risk than traditional fixed income, he says.

Although LVW still uses traditional bonds for the other half of its fixed-income allocation, Zappia says that paper merely serves as ballast for stocks and protects against deflationary risk. He doesn’t expect it to deliver much in the way of return.

Dorwin说，60-40的理想更换有助于解释其持续的流行。“问题是反对债券的论证是使用更多股票，使用替代投资或增加您通常在投资组合中使用的固定收入类型的风险水平，”他说。“我们认为这对许多私人投资者来说可能是非常危险的。”