October’s Market Moves: Woulda, Coulda, Shoulda

October’s relief rally — the best monthly returns in equities in four years — should have provided, well, relief. The trouble is that with positions washed out, sentiment fragile and macro data still mixed, few investors participated fully in the move, and many simply didn’t believe in it. We at J.P. Morgan Asset Management are not surprised by the lingering deficit in risk appetite and agree that a degree of caution remains warranted. After all, the third quarter was the worst three-month stretch for the S&P 500 since the same period in 2011.

Many commentators — bullish and bearish alike — appear very happy to call for a correction when they feel one is overdue, but nobody likes them when they finally turn up. So what comes next? In our view, either a continuation of the sharp rally in risky assets or a rapid deterioration into recession is equally implausible. Our best guess is a modestly higher, unconvincing grind into year-end, with stocks and bond yields slightly higher, commodities still weak and credit providing the best of the returns.

To put October’s market moves into context, the S&P 500 rose 8.3 percent, its best month since October 2011; U.S. high-yield spreads contracted 67 basis points and investment-grade by 10 basis points, the most since February; and新兴市场情商uitiesrallied 6.8 percent, their strongest monthly showing since January 2012. By contrast, yields on the ten-year U.S. Treasury rose 11 basis points during the month — but only in the last two days of October, after the Federal Reserve reiterated that its December announcement will very much be a live meeting.

The negative correlation between stocks and bonds seems to be reasserting itself, but with the start of rate hikes still in play for December, many investors will continue to question how attractive bonds are as a portfolio hedge to stocks. The upshot is a continuation of the tempered risk appetite we’ve seen since the summer.

Even if October has left a lingering sense of “woulda, coulda, shoulda” for the many battered investors who merely watched the rebound from the sidelines, the relative calm has given welcome pause for reflection. We think there are four major factors that multiasset investors are now weighing:

•我们维持的发达市场经济衰退的风险仍然很低。

•流动性，由欧洲中央银行总统马里奥·德里省的言论评论和中国的利率削减，有意义地提升。

• Emerging-markets stabilization.

• Anticipated Fed policy moves in December.

全球财务条件的收紧可能有助于夏天扭动纠正，但总财务条件指数仍然遭受衰退水平良好。新兴市场可以，并且可能会继续面临增长放缓。然而，他们不太可能将世界陷入衰退，即使他们继续抑制全球制造业。政策率将适应普遍的经济条件，美国第三季度的真正GDP为1.5％，既不是一个惊喜，也不是一个舒适的背景，以便看到率更高。专注现在必须转向美国的职位报告，明天到期，对于美联储是否将于12月搬家的进一步线索。那么，经济衰退风险是多少？

Most analysts and economists agree that a workout from excessive leverage, the overhang of excess capacity andthe structural drag of an aging population都有助于美国的增长下降。美国真正的GDP增长自2009年第三季度，金融危机后第一季度的积极增长，平均为2.2％;相比之下，从1985年第三季度到2007年底的增长平均为3.1％。如果我们看起来是名义的，那么增长消费者的类型，而不是经济学家的痴迷，差异是斯塔克斯仍然是：3.8％的后疾病，而Precriscisies仍然存在3.8％。

Well, there it is folks: thenew normal. Not much fun, is it? However, to be clear, the U.S. isn’t in recession. Indeed, few if any of the usual recession indicators are anywhere near stressed levels. Delinquency levels, debt-to-income, capex-to-sales and jobless claims, to name but a few, are at comfortable levels. It is also true that the dynamism ofan economy that is in midcycle on most metrics只是不在那里。

也许这并不奇怪。例如，如果我们假设工资与长期的标称国内生产总值保持步伐，那么2008年第2008年的增长率和2008年后的增长率差异为12％，从2009年到今天。这是每年约为5,600美元的美国工人。低能源价格，低抵押贷款成本和持续低通胀均有帮助支持个人消费，这在过去的两个季度中每一个超过35％。虽然在第三季度中减去了1.4个百分点和净贸易的净额，但美国的整体展示了巨大的增长。

Earnings growth in 2016 is likely to be positive, if unexciting. Woe betide those companies that miss earnings expectations, especially in fully valued consumer sectors. The upside risk to bond yields is probably limited, even if the Fed does raise rates in December. For bond yields, like equities, a grind upward looks more likely than a sharp jump.

我们希望情绪逐渐修复。一旦库存拖累清除和制造中的当前收缩，我们预计会有更多令人鼓舞的标题GDP打印作为消费者扮演的恢复性。尽管如此，我们今天不觉得追逐资产，而是更喜欢在信用等段中建立曝光，其中估值比基本面更脱臼，而不是他们的股票。我们在接下来的12到18个月内保持适度的专业风险。

Nevertheless, at this time our quantitative models, together with the greater level of uncertainty in the economy, lead us to take a somewhat derisked position. We have temporarily reduced our stock-bond position to neutral and have chosen to add risk instead in U.S. high-yield. We maintain a preference for developed-markets over emerging-markets but in reduced size. Within developed markets, we lean modestly to U.S. and euro zone equities. We are also overweight Australian bonds and underweight Canadian bonds, in a framework that leaves us neutral duration at the portfolio level.

随着市场稳定，我们的中期观点可能会再次占上风。但是，暂时，我们相信一定程度的谨慎是谨慎的课程。

John Bilton是Multiadset战略的全球头J.P.摩根资产管理in London.

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